Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Quote:Is Vladimir Putin winning? Can't declare a winner because the war has many more years to go.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
JUST KEEPING IT REAL, FOLKS.
Analysis of 75 years of data compiled by Uppsala University showed recently that “when interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average”.
A study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, using data from 1946 to 2021 compiled by Uppsala University, found that 26 percent of interstate wars end in less than a month and another 25 percent within a year. But the study also found that “when interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average.” Even those that last fewer than ten years can be exceptionally destructive. The Iran-Iraq war, for example, lasted for nearly eight years, from 1980 to 1988, and resulted in almost half a million combat fatalities and roughly as many wounded.
https://www.csis.org/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
JUST KEEPING IT REAL, FOLKS.
SECOND: Is Vladimir Putin winning? Can't declare a winner because the war has many more years to go.
"The" war? Which war is that?
The war proxy between Ukraine and Russia is coming to a close.
The USA will continue to peck at Russia, China, and Iran for as long as its budget holds out.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:Does close mean end in 2023? Or does close mean in 2030? You have been declaring that Russia's victory was close since last year, Signym.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
"The" war? Which war is that?
The war proxy between Ukraine and Russia is coming to a close.
It never stops: Over and over, Russia declares victory in Ukraine.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Russia+declares+victory+in+Ukraine
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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I predict it will end in 2024.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:Putin's March 2024 reelection campaign should make that a bumper sticker: "Vote Putin for Ukrainian Victory in 2024". If Putin cannot deliver, his 2030 campaign bumper sticker can be almost the same: "Vote Putin for Ukrainian Victory in 2030". I predict Putin will be reelected in 2030 even without a Ukrainian victory.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I predict it will end in 2024.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Russian society appears interested in discussing the outcome of the war in Ukraine despite the Kremlin’s increasing aversion to more in-depth public discussions of the war. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center released a poll on December 5 detailing the questions Russians want to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin during the upcoming “Direct Line” forum on December 14. The Levada Center found that 21 percent of all questions in the open-ended poll pertained to the end and outcome of the war in Ukraine.[20]
Levada Center reported that questions in this category included questions about the timeframe for an end to the war, the end of mobilization, and the possibility of peace or a Russian victory.[21] Levada Center noted that the second and third most frequent questions asked, accounting for 8 percent of responses each, pertained to pensions and social programs.[22] The poll indicates that the Russian public continues to have questions about the end and outcome of the war despite the Russian government’s attempts to silence anti-war rhetoric and protests to mobilization.
The Russian public’s continued questions about the timeline for an end to the war and mobilization and the prospects for peace are consistent with recent independent Russian polling indicating that Russians increasingly support a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and showing that over half of Russian respondents believe that Russia should begin peace negotiations with Ukraine.[23]
Putin will reportedly center his presidential campaign on Russia’s alleged domestic stability and increased criticism of the West instead of focusing on the war, so it is unclear if Putin intends to address questions about the war during the “Direct Line” event, which will likely serve as the launch of Putin’s 2024 presidential campaign.[24]
The Kremlin also appears to be increasingly implementing measures to ensure that Putin’s actual electoral success does not depend on battlefield successes and domestic force generation efforts.[25]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-6-2023
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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‘The U.S. May Not Be Coming To Save Us.’ Why, And How, Europe Might Have To Battle Russia By Itself.
By David Axe | Dec 7, 2023, 01:41pm EST
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/07/the-us-may-not-be-com
ing-to-save-us-why-and-how-europe-might-have-to-battle-russia-by-itself/
Russia is mobilizing its armed forces, and its economy, for a yearslong war in Ukraine. And if and when it defeats Ukraine, Russia might keep right on attacking — west toward the Baltic States, Poland and other countries along NATO’s frontier.
And the United States, NATO’s most powerful member, might not do anything to stop these cataclysms. “The U.S. may not be coming to save us,” analyst Justin Bronk wrote while announcing his new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/euro
pe-must-urgently-prepare-deter-russia-without-large-scale-us-support
To prevent authoritarian takeover, and the potential destruction of democracy in Europe, NATO’s other members must immediately ramp up production of munitions and prepare their air forces for the dangerous task of destroying Russian air-defenses.
Right now, the Americans mostly meet these key military needs on behalf of the rest of NATO. But two converging forces — creeping domestic authoritarianism and the looming prospect of war with China — could end American largess.
If China invades Taiwan and the United States intervenes, the Pentagon might need to shift its Europe-based forces to Asia in order to have any chance of winning.
“The maximum period of risk of the Chinese military attempting to blockade or invade Taiwan or key disputed territories in the South or East China Seas is likely to be 2026 to 2028,” Bronk wrote.
By that timeframe, the Chinese military might possess significant aerial and naval advantages over America’s Pacific-based forces. “Very problematic Chinese capabilities will be largely mature and fielded, but many of the U.S. answers” — new stealth fighters and bombers, in particular — “will not be ready yet,” Bronk explained.
“In the event of a dangerous standoff or an actual military conflict in the Indo-Pacific during this period, therefore, the U.S. will be heavily stretched,” Bronk continued.
And if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin can achieve his goal of destroying free Ukraine before any possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, he might choose that moment to continue his assault on democratic Europe. The continent “will be left vulnerable to concurrent military aggression by Russia,” according to Bronk.
Left unsaid in Bronk’s report is that the United States might end military support for its supposed friends and allies even in the absence of a war with China.
Consider that just this week, Republicans in the U.S. Congress voted down military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan because they demanded, as a precondition, that the administration of U.S. president Joe Biden essentially end a decades-old policy that provides asylum for refugees.
Under a Republican administration, America might respond to Chinese and Russian aggression by doing ... nothing. In either case, Europe’s democracies would be on their own.
But they’re not ready to be on their own. Even after 22 months of Russian brutality in Ukraine, NATO’s biggest European members — Poland excepted — haven’t even partially mobilized for collective self-defense.
Germany’s defense spending actually decreased after Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022. Meanwhile, auditors in the United Kingdom have identified a $21-billion shortfall in funding for key U.K. defense programs.
The cheapest way to prevent a wider European war is to help Ukraine to defeat Russia. Again, the Europeans cannot count on the Americans to aid this effort — not as long as the Republican Party shrugs at the twin threats of domestic and foreign authoritarianism.
Europe must be ready to fight alone, either indirectly through Ukraine or directly following Ukraine’s fall. But fighting alone means replacing all those military cap
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It seems NATO, USA neocons, transnational financiers and EU "elites', and Ukraine oligarchs are in the process of thrashing around trying to salvage whatever they can from Project Ukraine, especially since the funding cutoff means an unexpected payday cutoff for everyone up and down the line.
Rumors abound!
An anti-Zelenskiy cabal seems to be shaping up that includes Zaluzhny and Kitchko. It seems that Poroshenko was trying to round up other oligarchs in an effort to "save" whatever assets they have left. (How they thought they would do this is unknown. I think they were planning on another $61 billion so they could "negotiate" with Russia from a stronger position, but that doesn't make any sense.) This faction might represent homegrown Ukrainian elites and nationalists.
There are rumors that Zelenskiy will allow elections but only if Zaluzhny is in jail and unable to run. More rumors say that Zelenskiy won't run, but that Yermak, Zelenskiy's producer and deal-maker with Alex Soros (and likely other transnational financiers) is slated to "win" the election. So this faction probably represents Soros, Monsanto, BkackRock, and other transnationals who expected a big payday and profitable acquisitions in Ukraine.
The EU elite, NATO elite, and USA neocons are still huffing and puffing: Ukraine in NATO (Stoltenberg), Ukraine in EU (van der Crazy), USA direct intervention in Europe (and maybe Ukraine, Kirby), and other meaningless butt hurt statements. In response to Kirby's statement, Maria Zakharova (Foreign Ministry spox) said that if F16s were flying over Ukraine Russia would shoot them down as enemy aircraft, even if they were launched from NATO nations. (She left ambiguous whether Russia would strike foreign airbases.)
Who represents the MIC? Who represents the IMF? Who represents the BIS, and the central banks?
More importantly, since the big financial interests were expecting a big payday FROM RUSSIA (much, MUCH bigger than Ukraine) for their continued profit, who are they going to prey on now? Africa, China, parts of S America, and the Mideast are becoming resistant to western financial pressure, sanctions, and military threats.
Gullible leaders like Armenia's Pashinyan and Argentina's Milei are mere morsels for the maw that it international finance. Who's next? The EU people? Americans?
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Yesterday's News: Putin Reelection Will Be Landslide!
(Also, Russia threatened to nuke the West, but that’s not news.)
On December 8th, Putin quietly announced his presidential campaign after Artem Zhoga, commander of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Sparta” Battalion, claimed that the people of Donbas want him to run in the elections.[2]
Zhoga specifically emphasized that Russia needs Putin as president to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories and restore peace. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Putin’s announcement was “completely spontaneous” and was “a reaction to people’s appeal.”[3]
Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky responded to Putin’s announcement, claiming that although the results of the elections are already known, the “process needs to be arranged appropriately.”[6]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-december-8-2023
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Russia-Ukraine War: The Shortest Path to Victory Goes Through Crimea
By Luke Coffey, Peter Rough | December 8, 2023, 5:06 AM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-aid-congress-b
iden-victory-counteroffensive-crimea/
A successful U.S. strategy for the war in Ukraine should begin by recognizing that Moscow is uninterested in any genuine cessation of hostilities. We already know that Putin views cease-fires as instruments of war. From 2014 to 2022, as Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has pointed out, Russia agreed to 20 cease-fires in Ukraine — and promptly violated every one of them. Putin may float another such deal in the coming months, but it would only serve one purpose: to give his forces a respite before resuming hostilities.
Without the liberation of Crimea, Ukraine will never be safe. The occupied territory is the key staging ground and resupply base for Russian operations in southern Ukraine. As a first step, Ukraine must deny Russia the freedom to operate from Crimea.
That’s why Kyiv’s forces have repeatedly targeted Russia’s highest-value asset there: the Kerch Bridge, which serves as the essential transportation link connecting the Russian mainland to the peninsula. Twice, Ukraine has successfully hit the bridge. In October 2022, an explosion collapsed a portion of its westbound vehicle section and damaged a parallel rail line. In July 2023, a second Ukrainian strike temporarily destroyed another section of the bridge, limiting its operations for some time.
Ukraine has also repeatedly struck Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including its headquarters in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol. Over the past 20 months, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed at least 19 Russian vessels and struck military facilities on the peninsula with missiles, including Russian air bases and air defense systems. As a result, the Russian Navy has essentially been driven out of the western Black Sea.
Ukraine has the political will and creativity to launch a major campaign against Crimea, but it is up to the United States to ensure it succeeds. While the details should, of course, be left to Ukrainian military planners, a Crimea campaign would likely consist of three phases.
The first phase would be to isolate the peninsula. To that end, the West should prioritize arming Ukraine with the weapons that it needs to destroy, or at least incapacitate, the Kerch Bridge. Rendering the only direct connection between Russia and Crimea inoperable would put enormous pressure on Russia’s other route to Crimea, which runs through the so-called land bridge — the long stretch of occupied Ukraine along the Black Sea coast.
That means Washington should also assist Ukraine in targeting key transit nodes along that route, including the Henichesk, Syvash, and Chonhar bridges that connect occupied Crimea to Kherson Oblast. Ukraine needs to be able to put constant pressure on these targets and stay one step ahead of Russian engineering units.
The second phase of a Crimea campaign involves making the peninsula’s naval and air bases unusable for Russian forces. This requires urgent and plentiful deliveries of ATACMS, including variants with a unitary warhead and 190-mile range. With pressure from Washington, Berlin can be persuaded to also supply the German-made Taurus, a powerful air-launched cruise missile with a range of about 300 miles.
So far, Ukraine has had some success striking Russian ships, air defense batteries, electronic warfare platforms, airfields, and headquarters in Crimea using repurposed Soviet-era S-200 air defense missiles, as well as British Storm Shadow and French SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles. The S-200s, however, are less precise than more modern systems, and the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, like the Taurus, must be air-launched, limiting their use so long as Ukraine does not control the skies.
What’s more, Britain, France, and Germany only have small stocks of these weapons. This is why providing ATACMS — which exist in large numbers — is so important.
The t
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