Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 515 of 1104
A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasized the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win. The milblogger claimed on November 7 that Ukraine is committed to an “exhausting war” against Russia and that Russia needs “enormous combat potential” and an “accurate calculation” of its capabilities to beat Ukraine.[11] Another Russian milblogger expressed surprise that a milblogger who was previously so positive in his assessments of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine would openly admit to the need for a wider mobilization of the Russian economy in the face of a long war.[12] The Kremlin has largely appeared unwilling to conduct wider economic mobilization, and the milblogger's call to change this line is noteworthy.[13] Yet another Russian milblogger claimed that Russia is “paying terribly” for the Kremlin’s unwillingness to commit to the war fully.[14] The milbloggers’ suggestion to further mobilize the Russian economy appears to be part of recent discussions in the Russian information space about operational changes that could help Russian forces overcome challenges in Ukraine, likely in response to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s recent essay on the subject of “positional warfare.”[15] Zaluzhnyi’s essay appears to have prompted even the most positive Russian milbloggers to make more straight and honest assessments of the Russian war effort.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-7-2023
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasized the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win. The milblogger claimed on November 7 that Ukraine is committed to an “exhausting war” against Russia and that Russia needs “enormous combat potential” and an “accurate calculation” of its capabilities to beat Ukraine.
Zaluzhny may be committed to a positional war, but he's limited by munitions and, more importantly, manpower. He's as delusional as Zelensky, just in a different way. The west using Ukraine as a proxy protects the west from large manpower losses, but it also limits the west to Ukraine's transportation, anti-air, air, and (especially) manpower resources. As a chemist, like chemical reactions, I think of war as having a "rate limiting step" or potentially several rate limiting steps. There are many things you need to successfully wage war. And war can only be waged at the rate that you can apply resources to the front. If you can't replace X, Y, and Z faster than you're losing them, or you can't move them to where you need them, then ultimately you'll lose the war.
A blogger, Andrei Martyanov, who has attended Soviet war college, explains that at upper military levels the Soviets, and now Russians, can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Military Summary Channel today:
Russian successfully issues a deepfake video of Zaluzhny saying that Zelenskiy has started a genocide of the Ukrainian people, soldiers should pick up their guns and head to Kiev. There's more, you'll just have to watch the video yourself. It's really convincing.
Also, Kiev ordered a war crime to be committed. Ukraine military shelled Dontesk city civilians with cluster munitions. AGAIN.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:There is an abundance of chemicals that can fall into Ukraine and cause every Russian to burst into flames and burn to ashes. Every European country can fight on Ukraine's side. Russia's threats to go nuclear? It made that too many times. Russia's threat to invade countries coming to help Ukraine? Russia can't even handle Ukraine. But fortunately for Russia, most Europeans are cheese-eating surrender monkeys. Russians can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work with frightened monkeys.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Zaluzhny may be committed to a positional war, but he's limited by munitions and, more importantly, manpower. He's as delusional as Zelensky, just in a different way. The west using Ukraine as a proxy protects the west from large manpower losses, but it also limits the west to Ukraine's transportation, anti-air, air, and (especially) manpower resources. As a chemist, like chemical reactions, I think of war as having a "rate limiting step" or potentially several rate limiting steps. There are many things you need to successfully wage war. And war can only be waged at the rate that you can apply resources to the front. If you can't replace X, Y, and Z faster than you're losing them, or you can't move them to where you need them, then ultimately you'll lose the war.
A blogger, Andrei Martyanov, who has attended Soviet war college, explains that at upper military levels the Soviets, and now Russians, can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:There is an abundance of chemicals that can fall into Ukraine and cause every Russian to burst into flames and burn to ashes. Every European country can fight on Ukraine's side. Russia's threats to go nuclear? It made that too many times. Russia's threat to invade countries coming to help Ukraine? Russia can't even handle Ukraine. But fortunately for Russia, most Europeans are cheese-eating surrender monkeys. Russians can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work with frightened monkeys.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Zaluzhny may be committed to a positional war, but he's limited by munitions and, more importantly, manpower. He's as delusional as Zelensky, just in a different way. The west using Ukraine as a proxy protects the west from large manpower losses, but it also limits the west to Ukraine's transportation, anti-air, air, and (especially) manpower resources. As a chemist, like chemical reactions, I think of war as having a "rate limiting step" or potentially several rate limiting steps. There are many things you need to successfully wage war. And war can only be waged at the rate that you can apply resources to the front. If you can't replace X, Y, and Z faster than you're losing them, or you can't move them to where you need them, then ultimately you'll lose the war.
A blogger, Andrei Martyanov, who has attended Soviet war college, explains that at upper military levels the Soviets, and now Russians, can model war as a series of differential equations. I don't know what the terms would be in those equations, but I can "get" how that would work.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
Every European nation COULD, but they haven't yet and, most likely, won't. European nations have given Kiev as many weapons as they can spare, and sometimes more.
They shot themselves economically in the foot by cutting themselves off from cheap Russian energy and the USA blowing up Nordstream kind of blew up Germany s economy.
So popular feeling is drifting against further involvement in Ukraine. How far the governments will go is anyone's guess, but I expect we'll see a few electoral "regime changes" over the next 6-9 months, and by then the war will be over.
*****
Quote:
;Marching Toward a Night of the Long Knives in Ukraine
In fact in an article from only a couple months ago, Politico seemed to be laying the groundwork of who would take control if Zelensky’s presidential tenure happened to suffer an ‘unscheduled rapid disassembly’:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/marching-toward-a-night-of-the-lon
g
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Editorializing about the feckless Europeans, or as I call them, cheese-eating surrender monkeys:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Every European nation COULD, but they haven't yet and, most likely, won't. European nations have given Kiev as many weapons as they can spare, and sometimes more.
They shot themselves economically in the foot by cutting themselves off from cheap Russian energy and the USA blowing up Nordstream kind of blew up Germany s economy.
So popular feeling is drifting against further involvement in Ukraine. How far the governments will go is anyone's guess, but I expect we'll see a few electoral "regime changes" over the next 6-9 months, and by then the war will be over.
Opinion: Who a ‘stalemate’ in Ukraine really benefits
By Jade McGlynn | 6:20 AM EST, Wed November 8, 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/08/opinions/ukraine-russia-stalemate-nato-
mcglynn/index.html
Editor’s Note: Jade McGlynn is a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of two books, “Russia’s War” and ”Memory Makers: The Politics of the Past in Putin’s Russia.”
Responses to the recent statements by the commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, Valery Zaluzhny, warning of a stalemate war between Ukraine and Russia, have been varied and revealing.
In last week’s lengthy interview with The Economist, Gen. Zaluzhny set out — and proposed solutions for — problems that anyone who has spent time on the front, or with soldiers and instructors recently returned from frontlines, already knew.
His interview is not a revelation or admission. It is an intervention on behalf of Ukraine, a call for honesty.
Not everyone welcomed Zaluzhny’s call, let alone heeded it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied the war had reached a stalemate, while his chief diplomatic adviser, Igor Zhovka, even questioned the wisdom of participating in the interview at all.
Some Western military analysts, confusing a pro-Ukrainian stance with wishful thinking, rebutted the general’s conclusions. On the other side, skeptics of Western support for Ukraine gloatingly cited the interview as evidence that Ukraine should have capitulated at some imagined earlier opportunity.
Speaking of active imaginations, it has been widely rumored that a number of Ukraine’s Western partners have been trying to force Ukraine towards a ceasefire. If so, they have failed to understand Zaluzhny’s argument — not for lack of intelligence but for lack of willingness to accept the context and motivations accompanying this intervention.
The Russian and Ukrainian word for ‘stalemate’
Dmitry Peskov, Russian presidential spokesman, is on hand to help reacquaint Western leaders with reality. In response to the essay, Peskov claimed it was “wrong to say the war was moving in the direction of stalemate” and insisted Russia would achieve all of its stated war aims.
Peskov’s remarks serve as a timely reminder that Ukraine is not the intransigent party here. It is not Ukraine that is desperate to continue war despite plentiful options to stop the bloodshed — it is Russia.
In Russian, and some variants of Ukrainian, the word for a stalemate is rendered as ‘tupik.’ The word carries connotations of blindness and stupidity. In all senses, Russia is certainly not in a tupik. The Kremlin can see a clear way forward, grinding down Ukraine while it waits for Western resilience and supplies to dry up.
The West, on the other hand, certainly is in a tupik. There is little to gain from pointing fingers about the delayed supplies and what difference they might have made in autumn 2022 or even early spring 2023, even if the thousands of Ukrainians who consequently died deserve at least this.
There is however plenty to gain from examining the attitudes that informed this reluctance and will continue to hamper Ukraine’s self-defence unless radically re-examined.
Perhaps the most glaring deficiency is stale western thinking. It is as if the West refuses to have a s
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Meanwhile, Zelenskiy extends martial law for another three months. If he extends it for another three months after that, he will have delayed Presidential elections beyond its scheduled date.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Wrong person to "blame" or whatever it is you are doing, Signym. It is the members of the Verkhovna Rada who have voted for the ninth time to extend martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Meanwhile, Zelenskiy extends martial law for another three months. If he extends it for another three months after that, he will have delayed Presidential elections beyond its scheduled date.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-parliament-extends-martial-law-
mobilization-until-february-2024-as-war-continues-50366744.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian General Staff uses battlefield maps that differ from tactical reality in response to another milblogger who questioned why Russian forces were not striking alleged large Ukrainian force concentrations close to the frontline.[6]
The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian personnel on the front have access to the “real” map and that Russian commanders order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that align the “real” map with the Russian General Staff’s map.[7]
A separate milblogger claimed that there had been previous individual cases of Russian battalion and regiment-level assault operations aimed at achieving compliance with inaccurate maps of the frontline but that this is the first time that he has heard of a wider operational imperative to make advances that comply with a reported General Staff map.[8]
A milblogger claimed that Russian commanders are incentivized to make the tactical gains depicted in the General Staff’s maps because the General Staff increasingly requires positive reports from frontline commanders.[9]
Russian milbloggers have routinely criticized Russian commanders throughout the chain of command for delivering false and overly positive reports to their superiors and have identified the Russian General Staff as fostering this widespread institutional dishonesty.[10]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai
gn-assessment-november-8-2023
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I think these Russian milbloggers - assuming that they're actually Russian - don't take their MoD stated goals seriously. They make the same mistake that Dima (Military Summary Channel) makes: they interpret everything in terms of territory taken or lost.
There`s a reason why the MoD recounts a list of Ukrainian losses every day on every active part of the front, and NOT meters gained or lost: they're trying to reduce the Ukrainian military, NOT take territory. Once the Kiev army collapses, the Russian army can roll thru as much of Ukraine as they want, almost without opposition.
At the moment Russians are pushing on most of the front because the Ukrainian army has gone mostly on defense. It's almost like a cat pawing a mouse to make it run some more. Ugly and brutal, but nobody ever said war was was fun, especially when your side is doing most of the dying.
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME