The Taylor Swift and Beyonce Concert Things
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 23:21
VIEWED: 9224
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As Wash once said, 'do we care? Are we caring about this?'
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I'm just interested because it's something new and there hasn't really been anything interesting in the box office for a while.
I'm going to laugh pretty hard when the Beyonce concert thing in December falls on its face.
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BoxOfficeReport is a lot ballzier in its 2nd weekend prediction than I would be.
http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20231019.html
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Last weekend AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film debuted with a strong $92.80 million. That easily represented the largest opening weekend gross ever for a concert film and the second largest October opening weekend of all-time (behind only 2019's Joker). High profile concert films typically experience very sharp second weekend declines and that is likely to be the case for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film as well. On top of the built-in front-loading, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will also take a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens to Killers of the Flower Moon. With that said, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will have some factors in its favor this weekend, including exceptional word of mouth (the concert film received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore), which could help lead to repeat business, and the fact that the film didn't play from Monday through Wednesday this past week, which should help provide some extra stabilization to this weekend's performance. Look for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film to decline a sharp 66.1 percent this weekend for a healthy second weekend take of $31.5 million.
66%+ IS very steep. That's the type of 2nd week drops that kill Disney movies.
I'm not convinced that it's only going to gross $31.5 Million this weekend. They correctly mentioned that there were no showings from Monday to Wednesday this week (I thought it was Monday through Thursday, but that doesn't appear to be the case), and they do make mention that this should help the weekend numbers, but they still claim a 66% drop. But, as I've said earlier in this thread, I didn't really expect massive drop offs to occur until the 3rd weekend. I'm sure I didn't put a number to it because I said I wasn't even going to do any predictions on the performance of this until after the 2nd weekend was tallied up, but if I did, I probably would have thought a 40% to 45% to be the most likely, with a 50% drop being more unlikely. We're pretty much in uncharted territory right now.
Hell... Bruce didn't even know how many theaters this was getting for its 2nd week last night. I've never seen another instance of that happening before (if you don't count smaller movies like Talk To Me and Sound of Freedom being completely ignored in his weekly theater count articles after they've been out for several months).
Since this actually is getting Thursday night showings, we'll have some data to work with once yesterdays Box Office is posted, but I don't know how much that's even going to help with predictions here.
The oddness of this whole scenario had Bruce talking predictions in his theater count thread last night, another thing which I've never seen him do before:
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Whether Flower Moon can top the chart this weekend is another question. We’ll have our official predictions tomorrow, but it’s definitely a tough task given that The Eras Tour is coming off a $92.8-million opening. The Taylor Swift concert film wasn’t playing in theaters on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday this week, which means there should be some pent up demand for its renewed run starting on Thursday. If that gives it a better-than-expected hold, it could well stay top.
Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.
Even with a 66% drop, Taylor's thing still makes $31.5 Million over the weekend and I haven't even seen a Killers' prediction saying that anything close to $30 Million was in the cards.
The fact that Bruce was hesitant to even give a prediction last night leads me to believe he must be privy to some information that we aren't yet privy to. Otherwise
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Bruce is calling it a coin flip.
His prediction for both of them are around $32 Million over the weekend. He's giving first place to Killers of the Flower Moon with $32.9 Million and 2nd to Eras Tour with a flat $32 Million. He doesn't seem very convinced with either of those predictions though.
I still think he's way off base here...
Deadline reports this now: https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-killers-of-the-fl
ower-moon-1235579033/
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UPDATED, FRIDAY MIDDAY: AMC‘s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is currently looking to hold onto the No. 1 spot at the domestic box office with a second estimated Friday of $10.25 million, off 73% week over week, for what’s looking like a second weekend around $32 million at 3,855 theaters, -66%. That’s a very similar second-weekend decline to Disney’s 2008 concert film Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert. The running total for Eras Tour by EOD Sunday would be $130.7M.
Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening. Some rival distribs even have it higher.
Once again, I don't know where Bruce is getting $32 Million for Killers on opening weekend. Nobody else is coming close to that number. The highest prediction I've seen was only $24 Million.
Deadline doesn't cite its sources here, but they seem pretty confident in stating that the "estimated Friday of $10.25 Million" is correct. I don't know if AMC is saying this, and/or they have all the presale/online sale data at their fingertips, and/or a 3rd party is stating this or what.
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Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.
Even with a 66% drop, Taylor's thing still makes $31.5 Million over the weekend and I haven't even seen a Killers' prediction saying that anything close to $30 Million was in the cards.
This prediction still stands despite what Bruce has to say on the matter.
And I have to make a note to laugh out loud at the coverage both Eras Tour and Killers are getting in the Legacy Media, in particular that Deadline article.
For one, while Eras Tour still is smashing concert records, it will have done CONSIDERABLY LESS business both Domestic and Worldwide than all the Lefty media outfits had claimed it would in the months leading up to where we are now. So watching them just slather on the praise and tout the record breaking feat itself while never calling themselves out for how disappointing the REAL numbers are compared to their earlier predictions is priceless.
And they really need to stop saying things about Killers like "Meanwhile, Apple Original Films and Paramount‘s 3-hour and 26-minute Martin Scorsese movie Killers of the Flower Moon is looking pretty good. Booked at 3,628 theaters, Friday is shaping up to be $9M ahead of a $22M three-day opening."
No. There is NOTHING that looks "pretty good" about this with its $200 Million budget.
Killers is set to be the biggest flop of Martin Scorsese's storied career, and my prediction in the Hollywood thread from October 18th still stands. This movie is going to make around $70 Million less than the $200 Million Production budget, meaning that it's going to lose Paramount Pictures and Apple around $370 Million by the time it's out of the Box Office. We're talking an Indiana Jones 5 level, catastrophic event here.
And even if somehow I'm just completely wrong about this and it manages to bank $230 Million instead of only $130 Million worldwide, it still loses the studio $270 Million. There is zero chance that anybody involved in the production of Killers gets out of this without losing a ton of money. (Except, ironically, the actors and the writers and anybody of the hourly wage e
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Friday Previews are in...
Taylor Swift: Eras Tour - $10,400,000
This is a -72% drop from last Friday, and it appears that Bruce calculates this drop using the entire Friday figure which includes the first week's Thursday night previews.
i.e.: Last Friday's Era's Tour number was $37,525,947, which includes the $2,800,000 it got in previews Thursday night. The percent decrease of $37,525,947 down to this Friday's estimated $10,400,000 is -72.285%.
What does this mean? / Why is this important?
Well, if you look at other big movies this year, you will probably come to the same conclusion as me that from the 3rd weekend onward the percent drop from the previous Friday/Saturday/Sunday bounces around quite a bit between those days and doesn't necessarily make any reliable pattern. I would say that in general I believe the Friday drop ends up being a little higher than the Saturday/Sunday drops, but without any seriously in-depth analysis of this, that's just a guess made off of skimming a few big movies that came out this year and isn't a hard rule. Overall though, I'd say it's relatively even. Except for in the case of "kid friendly/family friendly" movies, which I'd consider Eras Tour to fall under. (See also: The Super Mario example just below).
The glaring difference in any movie is the first Friday drop, which is always much higher than the Saturday/Sunday drops. This is because those Thursday previews are counted as Friday dollars.
2nd Weekend Drop Examples:
Oppenheimer: F: 59% / Sat: 31% / Sun: 35%
Barbie: F: 59% / Sat: 28% / Sun: 33%
Super Mario: F: 59% / Sat: 31% / Sun: 12%
Eras Tour ACTUAL Friday last week was only $35,245,947 when you remove the Thursday night previews of $2,800,000. This leaves the actual drop from last Friday night to -70.493%.
That's still quite high, and obviously higher than the -66% drop that was predicted both before and after the Friday projections came out.
Can it claw its way back to the -66% drop predicted? I think it will. Not only is there a good amount of kids/family audience to this thing, but it made about $3 Million less on last Saturday than it did on Friday, and about $12 Million less on last Sunday than it did on Friday. It has a much lower bar to meet, especially on Sunday.
Killers of the Flower Moon: $6,800,000 (when you subtract the $2,600,000 Thurs. Previews from $9,400,000)
So... When calculating Opening Weekend totals, the Thursday night previews ARE included in that final number. Why did I subtract them? To get a better picture of what the Saturday and Sunday numbers are going to be.
If we were to erroneously make a guess for the rest of the weekend based off of $9,400,000 on Friday night, we'd come up with a number much higher than reality and we might be saying "This thing might actually crack $30 Million this weekend if it's lucky".
It won't.
I'm going to look at Oppenheimer for the model of my prediction for the weekend here. With Thursday previews included in the Friday number, it dropped 21% on Saturday and another 12% on Sunday.
Applying those drops to Killers and we get the following:
Thursday: $2,600,000
Friday: $6,800,000
Saturday: $7,426,000 (-21% of $9,400,000)
Sunday: $6,534,880 (-12% of $7,426,000)
TOTAL: $23,360,880
That's my prediction based off of Thursday Previews and Friday's Projections, so whoever guessed $24 Million going into this weekend was pretty much spot-on.
Now... It may have actually made as much as $25 Million and change even if the projections match the above numbers come tomorrow afternoon. As I've noted before, the Studios like to low-ball projections early in a film's life as not to embarrass themselves.
I'd say that a range between $22 Million and $26 Million as the final Domestic Opening Weekend Number is a good range to allow for error in my only using Oppenheimer's 1st weekend performance as the model.
What does that mean f
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Meanwhile, without giving any number predictions, I'm going to say that my guess is that Eras Tour 2nd weekend trounces Killers' first weekend.
Eras Tour: $33,209,039
Killers of the Flower Moon: $23,253,655
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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So I might ask for a prediction for trends coming in the next 6 months
the last time money flowed easy, its going back a while Guardians of the Galaxy, Aquaman, the Ironman and Batman movies, Halloween remake, Avengers Age of Ultron, Wonder Woman, Thor Ragnarok, studios knew how to make big block buster money with hits like Avengers Endgame ... just before M-She-U took over and it became Captain Marvel or the Wanda show or She-Hulk
Covid hits the industry hard
There have been a few cinema movies which made money during the crash the Top Gun remake, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Super Mario Bros Movie
they finally sabotage their own ship with all this Antifa Maxist Right Left pro-islamo Transexual Open Border politics
Here's mine, this won't be the last Music Movie Concert thing
it could have been done many decades ago but the editing and technology wasn't there. So I think the Monkees and Hendrix and Bowie and AC/DC and BB King and Eric Clapton and Queen and Joni Mitchell the Beatles were born in the wrong era
People have already done the life story thing many times, Ray Charles, Queen but they have not done a fake-ish concert.
There will be another pop star a 'Taylor Swift' with another fake-ish concert, they won't need to play an instrument or be that great a singer but they will have stage and stardom. I don't know who this person will be an ex member of a boyband or girlband, a Selena Gomez, Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, The Killers, Daft Punk, Green Day, U2, Led Zeppelin, ZZTop, Justin Timberlake...you might think some of these bands won't sell out and do such a thing but they will and even if only one member of the band is alive it will be an opportunity to put on one last show.
the band or singer will need to be known, somewhat hip and current
I honestly can not tell you what star people listen to today from pop or hiphip or rock or whatever.
Both Marvel Disney and DC Warner Bros will continue to have flops, too much nonsense put into their movies.
Some stars will lose their power Bad Boys 4 - Flop! Chris Rock has roasted his actions and Will Smith seems more like a pathetic person these days, Joker part II Folie à Deux probably flops I don't see it had the same shock or staying power as the original.
When Fantastic Four finally comes out in 2023, 2024, 2025 it will flop, when Avatar 3 finally comes out in 2024, 2025 or 2026 it will flop.
Another Alien or Aliens prequel or sequel the Untitled Alien Movie, H. R. Giger, Ridley Scott I think this will flop they are expensive to make and Alien movies find it difficult to make profit, the original had a Budget $11 million but modern films of this kind are costing 100 million to make,
are Universal Monsters even a thing anymore?
any idea for a 'Predator' remake or similar type of scifi monster big cgi fx film will fail.
Demolition Man 2 and other science fiction action, might do ok but I have no idea when it comes out.
I don't know if 'The Registration' can make money, people have read the book but it seems to be a thriller murder topic with more adult content meaning you will have less in the cinema seats. Does Sydney Sweeney have star power or maybe she has other upcoming movies that would give it momentum?
An anime version or cinema cartoon version of the "Lord of the Rings" might do very well but I'm not sure, it all depends on how much studios are willing to back some Japanese guy and how well the Japanese guy does this LOTR product.
'Killers of the Flower Moon' is supposed to be a good movie but the Scorsese movie is said to be LONG
these can be hard to prediction and you got the Barbie and Oppenheimer predictions wrong although other movies you almost got the predictions exactly correct
Oppenheimer was long but made 616 M overseas and is making 945 Million worldwide.
Some are already predicting success at $44 Million Box Office it is very early to predict, some might say it will make small profit and the star cinema performance more than retur
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
So I might ask for a prediction for trends coming in the next 6 months
the last time money flowed easy, its going back a while Guardians of the Galaxy, Aquaman, the Ironman and Batman movies, Halloween remake, Avengers Age of Ultron, Wonder Woman, Thor Ragnarok, studios knew how to make big block buster money with hits like Avengers Endgame ... just before M-She-U took over and it became Captain Marvel or the Wanda show or She-Hulk
Covid hits the industry hard
Yeah. Covid and the resulting tanking of the worldwide economy because of the huge overreaction to it did a number on Hollywood just like it did everybody else. I'm glad they're paying the price since it was most of their "talent" that was spreading all the bad messages in the first place.
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There have been a few cinema movies which made money during the crash the Top Gun remake, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Super Mario Bros Movie
they finally sabotage their own ship with all this Antifa Maxist Right Left pro-islamo Transexual Open Border politics
There will continue to be hits like these, but they will be much fewer and further between. I think I'm actually going to have to do the unspeakable and see Barbie for myself. Going under the assumption that I've gathered from other people that the movie is a woke feminist flick, I can't figure out how it did so well. That just doesn't make any sense in the current social climate. It may very well have been a woke movie and it will be a fluke, but I think there's more to the story than that. I think I need to know for myself.
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Here's mine, this won't be the last Music Movie Concert thing
it could have been done many decades ago but the editing and technology wasn't there. So I think the Monkees and Hendrix and Bowie and AC/DC and BB King and Eric Clapton and Queen and Joni Mitchell the Beatles were born in the wrong era
People have already done the life story thing many times, Ray Charles, Queen but they have not done a fake-ish concert.
There will be another pop star a 'Taylor Swift' with another fake-ish concert, they won't need to play an instrument or be that great a singer but they will have stage and stardom. I don't know who this person will be an ex member of a boyband or girlband, a Selena Gomez, Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, The Killers, Daft Punk, Green Day, U2, Led Zeppelin, ZZTop, Justin Timberlake...you might think some of these bands won't sell out and do such a thing but they will and even if only one member of the band is alive it will be an opportunity to put on one last show.
the band or singer will need to be known, somewhat hip and current
I honestly can not tell you what star people listen to today from pop or hiphip or rock or whatever.
Well... You're right already. AMC has partnered with Beyonce to do the exact same thing. "Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce" is set to be released on December 1st. I don't know if you knew that or if you saw my prediction for that already. I don't expect it to make half as much as Taylor's thing did.
My prediction on how often this would become a thing they do is probably going to have to wait until after the Beyonce thing wraps up and we see if this is going to be successful as a new model. Beyonce and her husband are great at business and marketing, so maybe I'm wrong and it does better than I give them credit for. I just feel that Beyonce's star has already faded. The last time I even heard her name before hearing about this was when she was doing free concerts to get out the vote for Democrats. And I can't even remember if that was for Joe Biden* or Hillary Clinton*.
If the production budget really is $10 to $20 Million for these types of things, and they can manage to keep the costs on the low end of that or even pare it down a bit with smart decision making, I think we could see a lot more of these, even if Beyonce's only makes half
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Projections for the 3rd weekend are $14,700,000, a 56% dropoff from last weekend.
Worldwide it broke the $200M barrier with $203,064,861. If we were counting this along side real movies, it would have already made the 1,000% club even if the budget were at the high projected end of $20 Million.
There's only $53 Million in International money, and I think that's a disappointment for them.
Although I think I remember hearing that they weren't going to keep it in theaters past the 2nd week of November at first, but now I'm seeing that it will get 13 weeks and won't end its run until some time in January. That being said, I think the (serious) predictions that this would make over $250 Million worldwide were correct. It's only got $47 Million to go and it's still got another 10 weekends in the theaters.
Normally, with 64% and 56% drops the first two weekends, the 26.4 International Box Office Share, and what it pulled in this weekend, I'd say that it's a super steep hill to climb. But I think this one is different enough that the weekend drops should get smaller as time goes on and shouldn't be as dramatic as they normally would.
The only thing that hurts the repeat viewings on this, AND I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH, is the abnormally high ticket price. My advice to them would be to announce next weekend or the following weekend at the latest that they're discounting the tickets to normal ticket prices and make an event out of that on Social Media, getting Taylor online to really hype it up and get people back to see it a 2nd or a 3rd time.
I did the math for constant 60% drops going forward, and in 10 weeks it wouldn't even make another $10 Million, but I think that model is flawed.
There are also about 8 to 10 countries this won't even be released in until next weekend too.
I won't say with 100% certainty it hits $250 Million Worldwide, but I think it has a pretty good shot at it. Especially if they do what I think they ought to do and discount the tickets going forward and use their greatest asset (Taylor, herself) to promote and hype a repeat viewing among her core fans.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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The weekend to weekend drop from 3rd to 4th was amazingly small this time around.
I don't recall ever seeing any movie that was still making over $10 Million on a weekend only dropping -12% from the weekend before it.
That's less than 10% of its total Domestic gross at this point, so little more than a drop in the bucket, but I think we've reached the point where we're seeing the die-hard Swifty fans coming out for repeat viewings. In my mind, these people are today's version of the people I'd see coming out of a showing for Rocky Horror Picture Show the few times I went with my brother 20 years ago to see movies like Animal House and Caddieshack at this little theater in the North suburbs of Chicago that had b-list actors from the movies come for photo-ops and signings while also sitting on stage before the movie to talk about it. I guess that place showed Rocky Horror Picture Show in one of its screens every single night on weekends, and why wouldn't they when the same people would get dressed up and pack the movie house every single weekend?
This may be finished internationally though. I don't know. That, or Bruce didn't get international numbers for this weekend yet. Even though there was another $17 Million this week Domestic, there was no new international money added to the total.
Total box office so far worldwide is $218.5 Million. Not to shabby for something that only cost $10 to $20 Million and required little more than good editing on something that was already taking place anyhow.
I still doubt very much that Beyonce's similar offering next month is going to do even half of what Taylor's did, and I doubt very much that this kind of money can ever really be replicated by nearly any act in the future, but I do hope this becomes a thing that AMC continues to do on a limited basis.
I have no interest in seeing something like this for Taylor or Beyonce myself, but even my old, jaded self probably wouldn't mind seeing a few acts in a setting such as this if AMC decides to diversify its offerings and makes this about a 3 or 4 times per year tradition.
Even if these things were only to pull in $50 to $80 Million worldwide on average, if they can pare the budget down to $10 Million or even less, nearly every single one of them is going to be profitable for everybody involved.
On a $10 Million budget, if they were only to make $50 Million each on average, that would be a 500% return, and in 2023 that would put every one of them in competition with each other for around 13th to 15th place for the most profitable films of the year.
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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.
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