The Taylor Swift and Beyonce Concert Things
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 23:21
VIEWED: 9224
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*NOTE: I edited the title to add Beyonce's run in here, keeping these separate from actual movies released in theaters.
I honestly have no idea what's going to happen with this one.
I've heard it will only make $70 Million opening weekend, and I've also heard that it's already made $150 Million worldwide in pre-sales. None of this seems to come from any legitimate sources, so I'm curious to see what Bruce has to say about it over the next few days.
They're saying the budget was only $10 Million too. That's a little unfair a comparison to any legitimate movie out there because the concerts were already going on and if they had made those concerts specifically to make a movie, it likely would have cost closer to what your typical Disney movie cost to make.
I'm not counting this event among movies in the list for 2023. It is going to be its own separate thing.
I wonder how many years it will be before you're going to the IMAX to see big sporting events, and honestly, I'm wondering why that hasn't happened already.
Only in the 2020's would a concert sell this many tickets in theaters. Back when I still went to concerts, the ticket prices for the actual concert cost as much as people are going to pay to see this thing in a theater. Concerts and live sporting events are now a thing for only the rich people.
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Looks like it's in 3,850 theaters in the US and 8,000 worldwide in 90 territories.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/255370830-Theater-counts-TAYLOR-SWIFT
-THE-ERAS-TOUR-takes-off-in-3-850-theaters
According to Bruce, it already made $100 Million worldwide in presales. That about splits the difference between the high and low ends of what I was seeing on reddit.
But Bruce also names the prices for tickets at 19.89 and 13.13 for adults and children, and I've already heard that even though this is what Swift wanted the tickets will actually be more than this at most places and the average adult ticket in the US would be something like 20.80 each.
From what I hear there are no previews tonight, so we won't know anything until the weekend.
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Per Deadline on October 10th:
Quote:
Eras Tour won’t be having Thursday previews because Swift wants the film launching on her lucky day of Friday the 13th, so the first shows are at 6 p.m. that night.
https://deadline.com/2023/10/taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-barbi
e-sellouts-box-office-1235568192/#comments
Reports that there would be no previews on Thursday because Friday the 13th was Swift's lucky day appear to have been incorrect.
Eras Tour made $2,800,000 in previews on Thursday night in 2,700 locations ($1,037 per theater).
Since I have no idea how this one is going to play out, I don't know if I can read correctly into what that would mean.
Firstly, I would assume that if sites like Deadline were going to put into print that there would be no previews, they must have based that off the fact that there were no pre-sale tickets for Thursday night, so those almost certainly had to be walk-up ticket sales. (And honestly, I'm not sure if they ever do pre-sales for any Thursday night previews... I don't know how that works for a regular movie).
Last weekend, Exorcist: Believer did $2,850,000 in previews in 3,050 theaters ($934 per theater).
Flop Blue Beetle did $3,300,000 on preview Thursday (08/17) in 3,400 theaters ($971 per theater).
Flop Shazam II did $3,400,000 on preview Thursday (03/16) in 3,400 theaters ($1000 per theater).
Flop The Little Mermaid did $10,300,000 on preview Thursday (5/25) in an unknown amount of theaters.
Flop Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania did $17,500,000 on preview Thursday (2/16) in an unknown amount of theaters.
Flop Haunted Mansion did $3,100,000 on preview Thursday (06/27) in an unknown amount of theaters.
Flop The Flash did $9,700,000 on preview Thursday (06/15) in 3,400 theaters ($2,853 per theater).
Barbie did $22,300,000 (07/20) in 3,400 theaters ($6,559 per theater)
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 did $17,500,000 (05/04) in an unknown amount of theaters.
Miles Morales 2 did $17,350,000 (06/01) in 3,562 theaters ($4,871 per theater).
Oppenheimer did $10,500,000 (07/20) in 3,150 theaters ($3,333 per theater).
John Wick: Chapter 4 did $8,900,000 (03/23) in an unknown amount of theaters.
Super Mario Bros didn't have a preview night. It released on a Wednesday. It made $31,702,735 on Wednesday in 4,025 theaters ($7,876 per) and $26,566,130 on Thursday ($6,600 per).
What does this all mean..... ?
Who knows!
First off, at 2 hours and 48 minutes, the run-time is obscene and can only be matched up with Comic Book Movies. Did it only get one showing per screen per night for previews because of the length? Maybe it did, but Guardians 3 would probably have also at 150 minutes. Even The Flash, which flopped, had 144 minutes and managed to garner nearly $10 Million on preview night.
But people were told in print at sites like Deadline (and probably many other sites who copy and pasted that article as their own) that there would be no Thursday night previews for this and decided to stay home.
All in all, if you look at the list of other movies (both flops and successes) and what they made on preview night, Swifts concert film doesn't appear to have great preview night numbers.
Granted, at under 3,000 theaters on preview night, it was in less theaters than most of these other movies got for preview night, but the amount per theater of only $1,037 is pretty small when you look at movies like Miles Morales 2 which got almost 5 times as much, and Barbie which got more than 6.5 times as much.
My take at this point is the Swifties who were saying this is going to be a Billion $ movie were nuts. But I would have said that before these numbers came in.
I still wont make any $ predictions until probably the 2nd weekend goes by. This thing has already made money just from pre-sale tickets alone. There's no question that it's going to be a success (even if I believe they skewed their production budget numbers so hard that I will not be including th
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Eras Tour made $2,800,000 in previews on Thursday night in 2,700 locations ($1,037 per theater).
Since I have no idea how this one is going to play out, I don't know if I can read correctly into what that would mean.
Firstly, I would assume that if sites like Deadline were going to put into print that there would be no previews, they must have based that off the fact that there were no pre-sale tickets for Thursday night, so those almost certainly had to be walk-up ticket sales. (And honestly, I'm not sure if they ever do pre-sales for any Thursday night previews... I don't know how that works for a regular movie).
Per Bruce at the-numbers.com tonight:
Quote:
This is the moment when I would usually hone our prediction with the benefit of Thursday’s preview numbers. I’m not able to do that this week because of the unusual nature of the previews. They were announced just a couple of days ago after most superfans had already bought tickets, and not all theaters played them. Our model would be looking at those $2.8-million in last-minute ticket sales as pointing towards a weekend around $30 million. We already know domestic pre-sales for this weekend exceed that figure. In other words, the preview number really tells us nothing about how the weekend will turn out.
Yup.
Bruce predicts an opening Domestic weekend of $130 Million for this and a final Domestic take of $293 Million.
He does not expect this thing to do anywhere near the business that Barbie did at $635 Million Domestic total after a $162 Million weekend.
His Opening Weekend prediction also includes all the Swiftie pre-sales, and I'd assume he's considering this thing to be pretty front-loaded by super-fans while he doesn't expect it to have anywhere near the staying power that Barbie had.
If the Domestic / International split for this concert thing is the same as Barbie's was (44% / 56%) and Bruce's prediction for Domestic is correct, this thing could be looking at making around $660 Million worldwide.
I think that figure is a little bit (or a lot) too ambitious.
If it hit $660 Million worldwide, that would place it at #8 on the list for 2023, beating every mega-budget Disney movie except for Guardians 3 by at least $100 Million and only being topped by Barbie, Super Mario Bros., Oppenheimer, Guardians 3, Fast X, Miles Morales 2 and a movie from China that is in 7th place.
I think this one is more front-loaded than Bruce believes it to be and it's not very likely to get the repeat viewings that the blockbusters get for two simple reasons.
1. A good majority of these overpriced tickets are being purchased by parents that are taking their daughters to see it, and many of them aren't going to be likely to spend that much money on a repeat viewing of this. (When repeat-viewings are a huge part of the revenue of most Super Hero movies, or movies like Super Mario Bros and Barbie).
2. A good deal of those parents probably aren't ultra-mega Swift fans themselves and wouldn't want to sit through another 3 hour concert documentary even if the tickets weren't overpriced.
Because of the weird nature of the pre-sales on this one, I still won't even dare putting out a prediction on this until the 2nd weekend's numbers roll in though, other than to say that I believe $660 Million worldwide is pie-in-the-sky thinking here.
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$39 Million projected for Friday night (Including the $2.8 Million from Thursday previews).
Compare that to the top Opening Friday releases of 2023 so far:
Barbie: $70.5 Million
Super Mario Bros: $55 Million
Miles Morales 2: $52 Million
Guardians 3: $48 Million
Antman & the Wasp: Quantumania: $46 Million
Taylor Swift: $39 Million
The Little Mermaid: $38 Million
The top 2022 releases:
Doctor Strange 2: $91 Million
Black Panther 2: $84 Million
Thor Love and Thunder: $69.5 Million
Jurassic World: Dominion: $59.5 Million
The Batman: $56.5 Million
Avatar 2: $53 Million
Top Gun: Maverick: $52 Million
Minions: Rise of Gru: $48 Million
The Top 2021 releases:
Spider-Man: No Way Home: $122 Million
Black Widow: $39.5 Million
Venom: Let there be Carnage: $37.5 Million
*NOTE: No movies from 2020 even hit the Top 100 Friday list, which bottoms out at $33 Million.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/bes
t-performance-by-day-of-the-week/friday
From that list, it is hanging around mostly with the big-budget Disney movies that ultimately ended up being box office losers despite a decent opening weekend. Movies such as Antman Quantumania, The Little Mermaid and Black Widow.
With the possible exception of Black Widow, I don't suspect it's actually going to come close to any of those with the final Worldwide gross though. Antman made $623 Million. The Little Mermaid made $568 Million. Black Widow made $379 Million.
It slightly outpaced Venom: Let there be Carnage, but despite only making $37.5 Million on Opening Friday, it went on to make $501 Million worldwide and wasn't a flop because the production budget was only $110 Million.
And from a pure tickets sold standpoint the situation is even worse because tickets in general have never been as expensive as they are in 2023, and there is a $4 to $5 premium on this concert show.
It's still going to make a mint at the box office though. Even though there would be about zero chance this thing ever made any real money if they made the concert specifically for theatrical release and had to include all of that in the production budget, this concert tour IRL already made a ton of money, and I can't really cast any legitimate doubt on claims that it only cost $10 to $20 Million more for production budget. It's not as if it has any big-name stars it needs to pay, or any special effects for that matter. Taylor is going to pay herself with the money after the fact since she's heavily involved in the production. The only real production costs would be the extra cameras on site and a lot of editing, along with the distribution.
The only real extra cost that we're probably not going to be privy to is that in order for her to release this, she had to agree to a sweet interim deal with the Guilds, which seem to require her to pay some pretty hefty royalty fees for streaming that none of the other movies which came out in 2023 have to pay.
I haven't read any articles about this yet, but I would have to imagine that $39 Million is kind of a disappointment for a lot of people (especially Swift fans) after all the buildup. Even though I think it will actually now end up making more than Bruce's $120 Million prediction (he did mention that up to $150 Million was in the cards), I get the feeling that people thought this was going to really have a great chance at rivaling Barbie and other mega-blockbusters. It won't.
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Hmmm...
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/taylor-swift-eras-
tour-box-office-badass-1235618353/
Hollywood Reporter says only $100 Million opening weekend, and claims that AMC is still sticking with the $100 Million prediction despite the $39 Million Friday.
That's interesting to me. I would have figured that this one would do better on Saturday/Sunday than a lot of other movies do in relation to Friday simply because of the parents taking their daughters to see the thing, and the fact that they were telling us a lot of shows for opening weekend were sold out a week ago. There are probably more showtimes during the weekend than there were on Friday and/or just more sold out shows in general on those days because a lot of people work on Friday and the kids were in school.
And then there's this... If you look at Barbie, it made $70.5 Million on Friday, $48 Million on Saturday and $43.5 Million on Sunday.
If you subtract the $22.5 Million Barbie got on Thursday previews from Friday, it was $48 Million / $48 Million / $43.5 Million.
Using that same metric here, Swift's thing should get $39 Million / $39 Million / $35.5 Million, or a weekend total of $113.5 Million, which would be closer to Bruce's original prediction than AMC's. And I still think it's going to behave differently than Barbie did and make more on Saturday/Sunday than Barbie did.
Honestly, I think that AMC knows this and is playing it kind of smart. I still think a lot of Swift fans are going to be disappointed that this thing isn't shattering any records other than the Concert Tour Movie specific record after opening weekend, but it will be able to claim that it did 10% to 20% better opening weekend than they expected it to. And with no possible downside because of the budget, it's going to be one of the rare times in 2023 when movie sites run defense for a movie that they're not fudging numbers or outright lying when they do it.
They don't have to. It's already a winner after one night. If the budget was $20 Million, they already virtually doubled that in the US alone, let alone the other 89 unreported territories it's playing in. Assuming a $20 Million budget, by the end of the weekend, Worldwide, it is probably likely to have already brought in at least 10 times the production budget. (1,000%)
(and once again, I will not be putting this on the list with the other movies for 2023 because it's not even comparable to any of them and it's not a level playing field.)
And AMC really needs a win. They claim that it was market manipulation that is the cause, and there's probably some truth to that, but after they did some bogus stock split into "APE" shares a year or two back, then re-integrated those back into the normal shares before they did a reverse 10-to-1 stock split, they really screwed over their investors who have now lost about 90% of their stock value since that initial split.
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It appears that projections for this are only $97 Million on the-numbers. Hollywood Reporter says $95 to $97 Million, and as I suspected, even without crossing the $100 Million threshold that pretty much everybody expected that it would, they're still pumping that up to be a great success.
To be sure, given how little it cost to make, it IS a great success, but it's just funny watching the outlets put their spin on things after their high predictions were wrong.
Normally, I'd say that it probably still did over $100 Million and that AMC was just lowballing the projection like the Studios always do with new movies and/or setting it up for more positive media coverage when/if the actual numbers come out above $100 Million tomorrow, but from what I've read AMC didn't put these projections out there and the projection was provided by a third party outfit Comscore. That removes the motive to purposefully give a lowball projection, but since I know nothing of Comscore before today I don't know how accurate they are in their projections and/or if the nature of this film makes it harder to predict for them than your standard movie.
From what I gather, the Eras Tour will only be shown on Fridays through Sundays because it's an "event". If true, that intentional scarcity of showings should keep this thing from dropping as much next weekend as they normally would have.
What is "normal" here? Who knows.
It appears that the lower than expected weekend number is being attributed to "virtually no walk-up business", per Hollywood Reporter. This would indicate that it probably won't have the longevity that was initially hoped for. The people who saw it this weekend were the people who have been waiting months to see it. And one could probably assume that a bulk of the people who see it next weekend were people who were either busy this weekend or weren't able to get a ticket to a showing close to where they live at a time that was convenient.
However, I think there will be more repeat business than I thought there would be, because the largely female audience was much older than I expected it to be. While they're saying 82% of the tickets purchased were female, only 17% of the tickets purchased were teenagers, and 63% of the tickets were 18 to 34 years old. I guess I probably should have figured that since Swift has been around a long time now.
I don't think this will have too much of a negative effect on The Marvels, which is coming out on November 10th. That movie is going to have plenty of other problems to deal with, but I don't expect Eras to have anywhere close to the longevity and relevance that Barbie did.
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'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' film captures the joy of a live-music experience: 'I got chills'
“I got chills when the movie started and definitely got emotional a couple of other times,” says Susie Lujano, who attended a Thursday night screening at the AMC Houston 8 downtown with her husband.
Lujano was at night three of the Eras Tour in Houston and plans to see the movie two more times over the weekend. She appreciates “being able to see all the details you miss when you’re at the show,” most notably the visuals during the “Reputation” era.
That is indeed one of the many strengths of the “Eras” film. Even those near the stage probably missed some of the details that come alive onscreen. The color-coordinated microphones for each era. Swift’s rainbow nails. The intricacy of the costumes. The joy that courses across each dancer’s face and through their bodies. Kameron N. Saunders’ effusiveness, in particular, is infectious.
The film’s setlist runs a few songs shorter than the stage show. Cuts include “The Archer,” “Wildest Dreams” and, most notably, “Cardigan.” But there’s still plenty to sing along with (as encouraged by most theater chains). Opener “Cruel Summer” is a pastel blast of pop euphoria. You’ll get swept up in the heart swell of “Love Story.” The entirety of the “Evermore” era is riveting and at times feels like an homage to Stevie Nicks.
Director Sam Wrench and cinematographer Brett Turnbull film it all beautifully. The entire screen almost seems to glow. Every dancer, set piece and wave to the crowd is given equal importance. Swift herself comes off self-aware and comfortable in her celebrity. No grainy behind-the-scenes moments or confessional interviews needed. Just a superstar and the gigantic, immersive stage that she at one point dives into and disappears.
But what truly makes “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” sing is the happiness that emanates from every frame. That’s what music is in its purest form: joy. It’s what reverberates through dancers Karen Chuang, Whyley Yoshimura and Tori Evans. It’s what inspires every Swiftie to create outfits and trade bracelets. And it’s what has kept me coming back since that first Chewbacca confession.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/entertainment/movies_tv/article/taylo
r-swift-eras-tour-film-review-houston-showing-18422045.php
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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At the end of the day, the main movie news sites were predicting anywhere from $100 Million to $150 Million opening weekend Domestic, with most of them predicting $120 to $150 Million. r/boxoffice at Reddit, which is usually pretty good at collectively making predictions for movies was swamped with Taylor Swift Stans who were claiming the opening weekend was going to be over $300 Million worldwide and that this was a Billion Dollar movie.
It looks like the International audience didn't come out to see it, and the highest opening weekend projection I'm seeing now is just $131 Million worldwide.
After the 2nd weekend finishes, with "virtually no walk-up business", repeat business from superfans is the only business this will be getting. I still think weekend 2 is going to be pretty big because there will be people who wanted to see it but couldn't get a ticket last weekend at a convenient time or were just busy, but the only thing that will keep this alive after next weekend is people shelling out premium prices for a 2nd and 3rd time.
Some countries are charging as much as 3 times your standard movie ticket price for this, which may be a contributing factor for how little it's making overseas compared to the original estimates by the movie news sites.
AMC is going to try this all again in December by releasing a Beyonce tour with high prices. Assuming they cut themselves a good deal, that's not a bad move at all on AMC's part. But I wouldn't expect anywhere near the same success as Taylor Swift is seeing. Beyonce's fanbase is quite a bit older at this point. My prediction for Beyonce's tour movie thing is less than 1/2 of whatever Swift's ends up doing.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Normally, I'd say that it probably still did over $100 Million and that AMC was just lowballing the projection like the Studios always do with new movies and/or setting it up for more positive media coverage when/if the actual numbers come out above $100 Million tomorrow, but from what I've read AMC didn't put these projections out there and the projection was provided by a third party outfit Comscore. That removes the motive to purposefully give a lowball projection, but since I know nothing of Comscore before today I don't know how accurate they are in their projections and/or if the nature of this film makes it harder to predict for them than your standard movie.
Not that accurate, it would appear.
Also, as I suspected, Comscore had no incentive to lowball the projection like AMC would have.
Total actual sales Domestic this weekend were only $92,804,678, over $4 Million less than the projections.
So it appears that it has to settle for 2nd place for an October opening weekend behind Joker's $96,202,337 in 2019. MSNBC runs defense for Taylor Swift here and says "Yet the Swift film opened on fewer screens than record holder “Joker,” and didn’t have Friday screenings before 6 p.m.", but what they fail to mention is that not only did Joker charge regular price for tickets instead of a $4 to $5 or more premium per ticket like Eras Tour did, but it also set that record in 2019 when tickets were cheaper and before Covid was a thing and Bidenflation wrecked the economy and the value of the US Dollar.
The other incorrect bit of info from that article is the claim that it was AMC's incorrect projection. No... It was not AMC's projection. $95 to $97 Million was Comscore's projection since AMC refused to give a projection after their initial prediction of $100 Million before the opening on Friday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-week
end.html
Also, Variety's latest article is still claiming the high projections instead of admitting the actual number.
https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/taylor-swift-eras-tour-movie-
box-office-takeaways-1235756756/
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