Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
PAGE 453 of 1104
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There are at least 10 000 graves that I found in the Lviv Oblast, there will be more, because I only checked out the main cemeteries. New graves are also being prepared everywhere.
I can not visit every cemetery or city, because of safety and i need to sustain myself financially, so I need to keep my business going at the same time.
The Ukrainian losses will be somewhere around the 200,000 mark, excluding the missing. That’s my estimate. Almost every person I speak to, knows someone who died, and in turn knows someone else who knows another person that died. The conversations usually go like this… “The man from the second floor of my apartment died, and my cousin from XXXXX lost her son, 3 others from her son’s class also died…”
We will perhaps never know the truth or real losses, and also not on the Russian side.
Interestingly enough, in one week, I also saw over 200 men and more than 30 women with missing limbs or in wheelchairs. These are people that were at the same place as me, at a particular time…so you can conclude yourself how many of those there are.
So let's look at the data points we have showing Ukrainian KIA in the 200-400,000 range.
- Population surveys
- Obituary counts on social media
- Cemetery construction
- Amputation disclosures
- Older, inadvertent official disclosures
- Endless conscription but no army growth
It's all completely internally consistent, pointing to the same approximate number of casualties in the 2-400k range. This is exactly what you would expect if that was in fact the case - all these secondary indicators are consistent with each other and there is no countervailing data besides the obvious lies of Ukrainian officials.
Given that Mediazona's count of Russian KIA in the 30,000 range has recently been validated by another inadvertent disclosure on their side (of some 8,500 WIA returned to duty, total, in the entire VDV for the entire SMO) this also points to an absolutely brutal fact: for every Russian soldier killed in this war, somewhere between seven and thirteen Ukrainian soldiers die. That's apocalyptic for the Ukrainian Army and a disgrace for their Western advisors.
This also, by the way, aligns perfectly with the Ukrainian MoD's claims for -Russian- casualties. This suggests strongly that the Ukrainian MoD's infamously implausibly running count of Russian losses is, astonishingly, actually an accurate report of their own losses - ArmChairWarrior
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-81323-afu-struggles-for-sym
bolic
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:In other words, Ukraine is losing.
Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
Peskov, Putin's spox, said that Russia only wants to occupy the regions that it has already incorporated into Russia (in other words, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaparozhiy, and Kherson. But not Karkhiv, Odessa, or any regions further west )
Still, I think that Russia may need to force Ukraine to unconditional surrender if it wants to achieve its security goals so it may push towards Kiev in order to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian government.
We'll see.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:In other words, Ukraine is losing.
Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
Peskov, Putin's spox, said that Russia only wants to occupy the regions that it has already incorporated into Russia (in other words, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaparozhiy, and Kherson. But not Karkhiv, Odessa, or any regions further west )
Still, I think that Russia may need to force Ukraine to unconditional surrender if it wants to achieve its security goals so it may push towards Kiev in order to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian government.
We'll see.
Ukraine Gains in Small Donetsk Village Have Major Frontline Implications
The southern axis of Ukraine's grinding counteroffensive reportedly secured another key gain over the weekend, with unconfirmed reports emerging that Russian troops were pushed out of their defensive positions in the Donetsk Oblast town of Urozhaine, a small village north of Moscow's formidable defensive line and on the road to occupied Mariupol
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-gains-in-small-donetsk-vi
llage-have-major-frontline-implications/ar-AA1ffM2y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a13d8cff7df44e36b531d08cc07753e0&ei=30
T
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Russia’s ‘General Armageddon’ removed from military leadership, under house arrest - Tuesday, August 15, 2023
Sergei Surovikin can’t leave his apartment and has been told to stay silent until he’s forgotten
Surovikin had been removed from his role as commander of the Kremlin’s forces in Ukraine.
Sobolev also hinted that Surovikin could ultimately make a comeback, telling the Russian news site that the general could be useful to the army at a later point, if he isn’t found to have committed serious violations.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-general-armageddon-sergei-surov
ikin-removed-military-leadership-under-house-arrest-reports/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:In other words, Ukraine is losing.
Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
What were Bolton's actual words, where he said that?
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:In other words, Ukraine is losing.
Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
K2PO: What were Bolton's actual words, where he said that?
*****
QUOTE:
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"Ukraine’s offensive failures and Russia’s defensive successes"
Russia is succeeding and Ukraine is failing. Sounds like defeat to me!
-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:In other words, Ukraine is losing.
Bolton: Biden's policy towards Ukraine only delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat to Russia:
Peskov, Putin's spox, said that Russia only wants to occupy the regions that it has already incorporated into Russia (in other words, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Zaparozhiy, and Kherson. But not Karkhiv, Odessa, or any regions further west )
Still, I think that Russia may need to force Ukraine to unconditional surrender if it wants to achieve its security goals so it may push towards Kiev in order to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian government.
We'll see.
THUGR:Quote:
Ukraine Gains in Small Donetsk Village Have Major Frontline Implications
The southern axis of Ukraine's grinding counteroffensive reportedly secured another key gain over the weekend, with unconfirmed reports emerging that Russian troops were pushed out of their defensive positions in the Donetsk Oblast town of Urozhaine, a small village north of Moscow's formidable defensive line and on the road to occupied Mariupol
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-gains-in-small-donetsk-vi
llage-have-major-frontline-implications/ar-AA1ffM2y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a13d8cff7df44e36b531d08cc07753e0&ei=30
Oh, thank goodness Kiev has something to show for 40,000+ dead in two months! If they keep winning like that, the war will be over by November!
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
Loving America is like loving an addicted spouse - SIGNYM
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In the following article, Daniel L. Davis explains the Ukrainian military failures. I agree with Davis, but Davis does not mention the biggest failure: failing to close the Kersh Strait Bridge to Crimea. Ukraine has had many years to develop a plan, then buy or build what is needed to bring down that bridge, but the bridge still stands despite several rushed and poorly executed attempts. That is the dumbest mistake (and the most significant) Ukraine made but it has made many others. It is hard to decide which side is dumber. Russia? Or Ukraine?
Ukraine’s last-gasp offensive has failed, and no amount of spin will change the outcome.
Double Disaster at Bakhmut for Ukraine and Russia
Bakhmut was a medium-sized town of about 70,000. It had some tactical significance for whoever possessed it, but by itself cannot be considered critical at even an operational level. Ukraine had held the town, but by early March, Wagner reached the eastern outskirts of the city. The military necessity for Ukraine at that time was to withdraw from Bakhmut to the next defended line to the west.
From this new position, Ukraine’s ability to defend would have been stronger and Russia’s task to attack the new Ukrainian lines more difficult because the Ukraine side would have had the high ground and open fields of fire through which Russia would have to advance, making any assault extremely difficult and costly in terms of men and equipment. But by staying in Bakhmut, the task for the Russians was much easier. Now, Russia could move to within literal meters of the Ukrainian positions within Bakhmut without being seen. The Bakhmut defenders were at a disadvantage from that point forward.
However, Zelensky chose to press the fight anyway. For months, senior U.S. leaders warned the Ukrainian president the battle was unwinnable and to move to other defensive positions. Not only did he refuse to withdraw to a superior fighting position, he ordered his men not to give up so much as a single building, forcing them to fight to the death. Month after month, Zelensky sent brigade after brigade to reinforce Bakhmut in an effort to reverse the tide.
Not only was it painfully obvious that military fundamentals made clear there was little rational hope of stopping Wagner’s drive to capture Bakhmut, but many of those brigades Zelensky sent in futile aid to help Bakhmut were also urgently needed in the upcoming spring and summer offensive. Two days after Bakhmut’s fall, Zelensky was still defiant, claiming the city had not fallen. In 2022, Zelensky’s tenacity and unwillingness to compromise resulted in blunting Russia’s invasion and then inflicting two major operational defeats.
But those successes bred hubris that in May 2023 led him to make very costly mistakes with strategic implications: not only did Ukraine spend irreplaceable resources on defending a strategically inconsequential city, but they also lost critically important brigades for their long-shot offensive that was to come. Unfortunately, once the offensive was launched in June, the mistakes continued.
Inadequate and Improper Training Paved the Way to Failure
Over many months prior to the offensive, many Western publications hailed the “advanced training” the Ukrainian Armed Forces were getting from a number of NATO countries. Concurrently, a number of Ukrainian brigades were also outfitted with modern NATO combat vehicles such as the Challenger and Leopard tanks, U.S. artillery systems, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and Strykers. The combination of NATO technology with NATO training was expected to produce a quality offensive capacity that would penetrate Russian defenses and drive a wedge to the Azov coast, splitting the occupying forces in half.
Foreign Affairs, on the day the offensive started, published an analysis titled “Ukraine’s Hidden Advantage: How European Trainers Have Transformed Kyiv’s Army and Changed the War.” And yet as has been painfully observed now after almost three months of the operation, European and NATO training did not transform the
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Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive has—so far—proved underwhelming, his troops winning back slivers of land in the south and east of the country at high cost. The Ukrainians are reportedly inflicting withering losses on the Russian defenders, but six weeks into the operation, Moscow's multi-layered defensive network is yet to break.
Zelensky faces an impossible choice: to go all-in and risk a costly failure or to cut Ukraine's losses and accept a politically damaging defeat.
The lack of progress has intensified the strategic debate at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government, sources with knowledge of the discussions have told Newsweek, setting some within the president's office against the military command.
Some in the former group want to consolidate Kyiv's limited successes and prepare for an expected fall-winter Russian offensive. But figures in the latter—including commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi—want to push on, with Ukrainian military officials decrying criticism as impatience rooted in misunderstanding.
https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-pivotal-ukraine-counteroffensive-cal
l-threatens-divide-leadership-1819564
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:Oh, not hard at all: USA neocons, who conned Ukraine into being their dupes
Originally posted by second:
In the following article, Daniel L. Davis explains the Ukrainian military failures. I agree with Davis, but Davis does not mention the biggest failure: failing to close the Kersh Strait Bridge to Crimea. Ukraine has had many years to develop a plan, then buy or build what is needed to bring down that bridge, but the bridge still stands despite several rushed and poorly executed attempts. That is the dumbest mistake (and the most significant) Ukraine made but it has made many others. It is hard to decide which side is dumber. Russia? Or Ukraine?
Quote:And actualy, taking Bakhmut was NOT Russia's plan. This was all on Progozhin. Russian MoD would have been content to let Zelensky pour tide after tide of meat into the grinder. Russia had developed a defensive line well to the east of Bakhmut, and now they have to defend a city that doesn't have proper defenses set up, and is less defensible than their planned positions. If Surovikin is in trouble for anything, it's letting Prigozhin take charge of the military tactics in Bakhmut. Like Ukraine, that has strategic consequences for Russia, forcing them to fight for a spot they had no interest in.
Ukraine’s last-gasp offensive has failed, and no amount of spin will change the outcome.
Double Disaster at Bakhmut for Ukraine and Russia
Bakhmut was a medium-sized town of about 70,000. It had some tactical significance for whoever possessed it, but by itself cannot be considered critical at even an operational level. Ukraine had held the town, but by early March, Wagner reached the eastern outskirts of the city. The military necessity for Ukraine at that time was to withdraw from Bakhmut to the next defended line to the west.
From this new position, Ukraine’s ability to defend would have been stronger and Russia’s task to attack the new Ukrainian lines more difficult because the Ukraine side would have had the high ground and open fields of fire through which Russia would have to advance, making any assault extremely difficult and costly in terms of men and equipment. But by staying in Bakhmut, the task for the Russians was much easier. Now, Russia could move to within literal meters of the Ukrainian positions within Bakhmut without being seen. The Bakhmut defenders were at a disadvantage from that point forward.
However, Zelensky chose to press the fight anyway. For months, senior U.S. leaders warned the Ukrainian president the battle was unwinnable and to move to other defensive positions. Not only did he refuse to withdraw to a superior fighting position, he ordered his men not to give up so much as a single building, forcing them to fight to the death. Month after month, Zelensky sent brigade after brigade to reinforce Bakhmut in an effort to reverse the tide.
Not only was it painfully obvious that military fundamentals made clear there was little rational hope of stopping Wagner’s drive to capture Bakhmut,
Quote:But the Ukrainian army never really engaged Russian forces, they were merely dealing with those covering Russian retreats.
but many of those brigades Zelensky sent in futile aid to help Bakhmut were also urgently needed in the upcoming spring and summer offensive. Two days after Bakhmut’s fall, Zelensky was still defiant, claiming the city had not fallen. In 2022, Zelensky’s tenacity and unwillingness to compromise resulted in blunting Russia’s invasion and then inflicting two major operational defeats.
Quote:
But those [meaningless] successes bred hubris that in May 2023 led him to make very costly mistakes with strategic implications: not only did Ukraine spend irreplaceable resources on defending a strategically inconsequential city, but they also lost critically important brigades for their long-shot offensive that was to come. Unfortunately, once the offensive was launched in June, the mistakes continued.
Inadequate and Improper Training Paved the Way to FailurNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME