***** Sound of Freedom
POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 17 of 47
Updating:
Quote:let's see...
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.
Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.
For the days when working folk are not working...
Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362
8 Aug 1.170
9 Aug 0.900 7 $ 0303
10Aug 0.822 5 $ 0276
Quote:Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.Quote:My suspicion for Wednesday was premature.Quote:My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.
Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.
2 days later, on Friday, Mansion dropped to $724 per theater, and SoF held at 744 per theater.
On Sunday, Mansion had $763 per, and Sof had $836 per.
Bruce pointed out that the entire Box office, for the entire spectrum of movies, was down 11% from expected.
No A24 figures, but now Bruce has placed rankings for the past 7 days.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I just noticed that Barbie actually does well on Sat & Sun with International, meaning the summer weekdays do not help as much in other countries. I don't know the cultural customs of cinema elsewhere.
There is insufficient data to make that claim. We haven't seen any updates to international numbers for Barbie since Sunday/Monday, and we don't know how Bruce calculates anything.
If you're referring to the fact that there are countries on the International tab with dates of 8/8, 8/9 and even 8/11 on them, I could see where that could be confusing, but as far as any NEW money being added to the international total there has not been any new money since Sunday's $118 Million and the additional $31 Million that was added on Monday morning. The only gains that Barbie has had since that $31 Million addition to the International total were its Domestic gains from Monday to Thursday.
What I'm assuming here is that not only does Bruce reconcile whatever he can with the previous week on Sunday, but he is also given some new studio projections for the following week from some of the countries outside of the US where it's been shown, similar to how we'll get Saturday/Sunday projections by around noon on Saturday here in the states. However, unlike how the US box office shows the actual numbers fairly quickly after projections are given, the International numbers lag very far behind that and are handled very opaquely. In fact, I'd say that we're in a position where we just have to take Bruce's and the Studios' words on the international numbers altogether because outside of them being posted there's no other actual evidence presented to us that any of those numbers are even real in the first place, and we're never given any explanation about projections and reconciliation.
This would certainly explain all the strangeness I started to notice in many of the top 50 worldwide movies, particularly at the end of their runs. Some weeks a movie will make $3 Million stateside and yet by the end of that week the Worldwide Gross went down $1 Million. Then a month later that same movie makes $200k Domestic and it goes up $6 Million Worldwide.
I now believe that this stuff happens all the time to every movie. Most folk just wouldn't notice it since almost nobody is paying as close attention to any of this as we are doing. Hell... It took me quite a long time to notice it myself, and really it only becomes very obvious when big-budget flicks near the end of their runs. Look through my posts and you'll see me mention this quite a few times about Super Mario Bros and Guardians 3. It even happened with the lower-budget The Bogeyman, with that movie posting some insane gains of around $10 Million one week late into its run when it didn't make much at all here in the states.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.
They're up now. Haunted Mansion had $283 compared to SoF's $276 on Thursday. It made about $134k more than SoF.
Bruce's prediction for the weekend is $4,990,000 for Sound of Freedom and $5,220,000 for Haunted Mansion.
That could go either way, since his predictions for the 3 days on both movies are only about half the difference between Haunted Mansion and Sound of Freedom on Cheap Seat Tuesday alone.
In any event, we're probably only around a week from Haunted Mansion being another mega-budget movie that never makes as much per day as Sound of Freedom before the end of both of their runs. Maybe less.
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Updating:
Quote:let's see...
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.
Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.
For the days when working folk are not working...
Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1
15Jul 10.22 2 $3,132 2
16Jul 9.563 2 $2,929 2
22Jul 7,434 4 $2,263 3
23Jul 6,684 3 $2,035 3
29Jul 4.813 4 $1,411 4
30Jul 4.233 4 $1,241 4
5 Aug 2.870 6 $ 0965 7
6 Aug 2.487 6 $ 0836 6
other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2
17Jul 4.954 2 $1,518 1
18Jul 5.449 2 $1,669 2
19Jul 4.722 2 $1,446 1
20Jul 3.702 1 $1,134 1
21Jul 5.706 3 $1,737 3
24Jul 3.168 3 $ 0965 3
25Jul 3.391 3 $1,032 3
26Jul 3.001 3 $ 0914 3
27Jul 2.568 3 $ 0782 3
28Jul 3.766 5 $1,104 5
31Jul 2.001 4 $ 0587 4
1 Aug 2.061 4 $ 0604 4
2 Aug 1.561 5 $ 0458 6
3 Aug 1.440 5 $ 0442 7
4 Aug 2.212 6 $ 0744 6
7 Aug 1.077 6 $ 0362 7
8 Aug 1.170 6 $ 0393 8
9 Aug 0.900 8 $ 0303 7
10Aug 0.822 7 $ 0276 9
Quote:Talk To Me figures finally posted for the past week, about 2 hours ago. So I updated.Quote:Mansion had lower $per than SoF on Monday and Wed, no Mansion figures for Thu.Quote:My suspicion failed. WokeSayGay Mansion dropped to $492 per theater, in it's 6th day of release. But SoF dropped more than I expected, to $458 per screen.
]I suspect Mansion won't have higher $ Per theater than SoF for Wednesday.
I do still feel confident that Mansion will fall below SoF for Sat and Sun.
Sof earned 11% of it's Production Budget. Barbie earned almost 13% from Domestic BO, likely 27% Worldwide.
SoF earned 150% of it's Budget in the past 7 days, Barbie did $157M Domestic in the last 7 days, which would be 157% of Budget, and likely 320% Worldwide.
-----------------
My suspicion for Wednesday was premature.
2 days later, on Friday, Mansion dropped to $724 per theater, and SoF held at 744 per theater.
On Sunday, Mansion had $763 per, and Sof had $836 per.
Bruce pointed out that the entire Box office, for the entire spectrum of movies, was down 11% from expected.
No A24 figures, but now Bruce has placed rankings for the past 7 days.
Last week, I balked when Angel Studios projected that Sunday would make less than Friday - for the first time in their run. And I will have the same reaction if they do the same this weekend.
Still no SoF for last night.
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So do you understand what I've said about international numbers? Do you have any arguments to my view on them?
Talk To Me wasn't even on my radar, especially since Bruce didn't have any figures for it until now. The only reason that I'd have even taken notice of it was because of its relation to SoF, if not for you mentioning it.
It just occurred to me that as the year goes on, there's probably going to be quite a few flicks that would have made my lists that won't make my lists anymore, since I'm not really focusing on anything that didn't make the top 50 worldwide.
Right now, if you look at the top worldwide list for 2023, there are already 5 movies that I'm tracking that have fallen out of the top 50. Magic Mike's Last Dance (53), 65 (54), Knock at the Cabin (55), Mummies (56), Jesus Revolution (57).
Talk to me is at 67 now, and likely won't make $65 Million to get to number 50. But at the same time, it appears that it only had a budget of $5, so the 620% that it's already made on PB vs. WWBO in only 15 days is impressive and should be represented.
I've also missed putting the major flop Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken and its $70 Million budget vs. $42 Million Worlwide take because it's only gotten as high as 64. (I was rooting for that one, but sadly it didn't do well at all).
I may have to expand the list of movies that I'm covering at some point. I did already add Haunted Mansion and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem to my lists last week even though they were nowhere near the top 50 just because I knew they would make it. They're now at 48 and 49.
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It looks as though I probably won't be able to officially update the list today since Bruce still doesn't have Sound of Freedom numbers up after 9PM. Weird.
I'm going to do it anyhow though with my best guesstimate of what SoF did today. Since it was so close to the next million, I doubt very much it made so little that it can't be rounded up to $2 Million above yesterday, and I also doubt it made enough to be rounded up to $3 Million as well, so +14% for the day it is unless the numbers come out and prove that wrong.
(I was wrong. SoF got $1,330,601 on Friday, so it gets a 7% increase for the day).
Friday's Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,207% (+7%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,077% (+10%)
SoF needs 152% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 269% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 130% above Barbie. (Probably only 80% with unreported international numbers)
I'm going to give another 12% international for Friday night to Barbie, so after the international numbers from Monday to Friday are added, it's likely about 1,127%.
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I was wrong. SoF made $1,330,601 on Friday, so the 2nd round up can't happen on Friday. So it will get 7% for Friday and the 14% on Saturday.
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Bruce's predictions for SoF were pretty good this weekend at $4,990,000. It's projected to have made $4,832,374.
Friday: $1,339,700; Saturday: $1,940,819; Sunday: $1,551,855
This means that if Angel Studio's projections for the weekend are correct, and so are Paramounts for MI7, that MI7 did somehow manage to outperform SoF for a single day on Saturday. We'll see if that happened when the real numbers come out on Monday.
Quote:
They're up now. Haunted Mansion had $283 compared to SoF's $276 on Thursday. It made about $134k more than SoF.
Bruce's prediction for the weekend is $4,990,000 for Sound of Freedom and $5,220,000 for Haunted Mansion.
That could go either way, since his predictions for the 3 days on both movies are only about half the difference between Haunted Mansion and Sound of Freedom on Cheap Seat Tuesday alone.
In any event, we're probably only around a week from Haunted Mansion being another mega-budget movie that never makes as much per day as Sound of Freedom before the end of both of their runs. Maybe less.
Haunted Mansion did a little better than Bruce's $5,220,000 thought it would:
Friday: $1,530,000; Saturday: $2,400,000; Sunday: $1,684,000 = $5,614,000
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Saturday/Sunday Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+29%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,101% (+24%)
SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 135% above Barbie. (Probably only 58% with unreported international numbers)
*Super Mario Bros projections aren't in yet, and no new international numbers appear to be either. It only made $7k at Friday's box office though so it's safe to say it's a 0% gain until some new international wackiness happens when those numbers are readjusted.
No new numbers to Insidious overseas. It's projected to have made $475k this weekend domestic.
I'm going to give another 27% international for Saturday and Sunday to Barbie for a total of 77% more for the week once the international numbers come in on Sunday/Monday. so after the international numbers from Monday to Friday are added, it's likely about 1,178%.
Barbie will have overtaken Insidious for 4th place once the international numbers are in.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Saturday/Sunday Numbers:
1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+29%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,144% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 1,101% (+24%)
SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 135% above Barbie. (Probably only 58% with unreported international numbers)
*Super Mario Bros projections aren't in yet, and no new international numbers appear to be either. It only made $7k at Friday's box office though so it's safe to say it's a 0% gain until some new international wackiness happens when those numbers are readjusted.
No new numbers to Insidious overseas. It's projected to have made $475k this weekend domestic.
I'm going to give another 27% international for Saturday and Sunday to Barbie for a total of 77% more for the week once the international numbers come in on Sunday/Monday. so after the international numbers from Monday to Friday are added, it's likely about 1,178%.
Barbie will have overtaken Insidious for 4th place once the international numbers are in.
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How you do anything is how you do everything.
It looks like Bruce got his international numbers in for Barbie:
Saturday/Sunday Numbers (Post International Update):
1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,358% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,236% (+0%)
4. Barbie - 1,184% (+83%)
5. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,163% (+19%)
SoF needs 123% to beat SMB. (About $18 Million)
SoF needs 240% to beat M3GAN. (About $34 Million)
SoF is 52% above Barbie. (6% less than my after-international prediction)
Insidious gets a 19% bump from international accounting. I should just probably call it "accounting" from now on with the international numbers because there's no way it got a 19% bump from ticket sales overseas in the last week when it didn't even earn $1 Million in the states this week. This must be some more of that late-game built-in international jenk that happens to movies.
Barbie slightly outpaced my prediction of 77% more with International numbers and came in with 83% additional. This is, of course, assuming that Bruce doesn't add additional numbers to the movie again on Monday like he did last week. I'm going to say it's a fairly safe bet he doesn't do that this time because he put the international gains for last week into print this time, and it's why I even knew he had them since I wasn't going to look at numbers anymore today and wait for tomorrow when I can update the lists.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254810830-Weekend-projections-its-ano
ther-Barbenheimer-weekend-at-the-box-office
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