***** Sound of Freedom

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: (August 4th):
This weekend will tell us a lot about the future of SoF in the Domestic market. It lost over 400 theaters as reported last night. My guess is that it will make about another $6 to $7 Million this weekend, or 43% to 57% depending on how the rounding falls. The percentage loss it had last night will actually be beneficial to it this weekend since it was so close to rolling up instead of rolling down to the closest million.

It's looking less and less likely that SoF will end the year on top without good international numbers.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: (August 5th):
Despite the loss of 400+ theaters, Bruce remains more optimistic than I do about SoF's chances this weekend. His model has $9,020,00 predicted for 6th place, right behind Haunted Mansion's $10,500,000.

If that's true, it won't be long until SoF overcomes another mega-budget Disney movie.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack: (August 5th):
So far with $2,200,072 projected on Friday, the high end of my guess at $7 Million sounds reasonable. it's probably not going to do $9 Million this weekend.

1. M3GAN - 1,475%
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,357%
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,136% (+22%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,100% (+0%)
5. Barbie - 846% (+17%)

SoF needs 222% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 340% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 290% above Barbie.

Benefiting from rounding today after being hurt by it yesterday, SoF is back to 290% above Barbie.

... But in actuality, Barbie has almost certainly made another 77% to 98% from International figures on Monday through Friday that aren't yet updated, putting Barbie somewhere around 934% and only 202% behind SoF.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Based upon the green numbers projected at the moment, I still expect SoF to do $8-10M this weekend.

---

Yeah... Sorry man. I didn't think so.

I know I spent the first few weeks seriously underestimating this movie, but it's since fallen back to earth and is behaving as I would expect a movie to behave.

If there's any solace to find here, it's the fact that it really made Bruce think twice about his own predictions and give it the $9,020,000 figure so he wasn't wrong about it for the 5th weekend in a row, and all that did was make him wrong about it again.





Projected numbers are in for the weekend on SoF. $2,200,000 for Friday, $2,831,000 for Saturday and $2,001,000 for Sunday.

These aren't numbers that Bruce makes up. These are numbers provided to Bruce by the studios, so this is Angel Studios giving those projected numbers.

Quote:

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So far with $2,200,072 projected on Friday, the high end of my guess at $7 Million sounds reasonable. it's probably not going to do $9 Million this weekend.

---

Weekend Total Projections for SoF are $7,032,000.


After Saturday/Sunday Projections:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,357% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,164% (+28%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,138% (+38%)
5. Barbie - 882% (+36%)

SoF needs 193% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 311% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 282% above Barbie.

Though there are no confirmed-by-country dates for Insidious over the last two days yet, the "Rest of World" number must have had some additions to it already. It's only added a little over a million Domestic this weekend, which only accounts for about 6 or 7% depending on rounding, but it went up a full 38% since early yesterday when I updated it.

None of the international numbers for Barbie have come in yet, however, so the 36% it gained in the last two days were the Domestic Box Office projections. It's probably made in the area of 110% to 140% internationally since the last updates, which could possibly cut SoF's current lead in half. I have to be honest though, it's probable that some of this international money has been added in an

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
None of the international numbers for Barbie have come in yet, however, so the 36% it gained in the last two days were the Domestic Box Office projections. It's probably made in the area of 110% to 140% internationally since the last updates, which could possibly cut SoF's current lead in half. I have to be honest though, it's probable that some of this international money has been added in and I wasn't paying attention to it. I don't really see how since I've been updating nearly every day and it didn't look like it was happening at the time, but quite a few countries listed 8/2 and 8/3 as the days they were updated. Unfortunately, it's impossible to view any sort of historic timeline of international additions, so if you miss them and didn't catalog them on the day they happen, you miss them forever.

Through my completely not-scientific method of predicting the International box office future of a movie, I had determined on the 1st that 55% of Barbie's income was from overseas. Currently, 5 days later, only 48% of the international income is reflected from overseas takes. In order for that number to get back to 55%, Barbie would get somewhere in the area of $128 Million additional added in the next several days. I dunno. Things get really tricky when the international stuff is so haphazardly thrown in with no rhyme or reason.

If Barbie does get as much as $128 Million internationally added, it joins the Billion Dollar Movie Club as soon as they're posted.

---

5 hours later...

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Barbie-(2023)#tab=international

Barbie joins the Billion Dollar Movie Club with $1,000,381,413 after adding roughly $118 Million to the international total. This puts Barbie's Domestic Take at 46% and the International take at 54%.

Barbie is now also a 1000% WW Gross vs. Production Budget winner.


UPDATED percentages after Weekend Projections...

After Saturday/Sunday Projections:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,357% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,164% (+28%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,138% (+38%)
5. Barbie - 1,000% (36% Domestic Friday + 118% International for the week = +154%)

SoF needs 193% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 311% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 164% above Barbie. (-118%)



At this point the question is if beating M3GAN would even be enough to take 1st place on the list for 2023 with Barbie's performance so far. By the end of weekend 3, The Super Mario Bros. Movie had $436 Million Domestic, and Barbie has $459 Million Domestic.

I'm thinking that SMB is probably safe from being beat by Barbie in the end though because SMB's (near final) Domestic/International split is 42%/58% and Barbie's current split is 46%/54%, meaning that even though Barbie is making more here in the states it's making less overseas than SMB did. And to drive the point home, that 4% difference amounts to exactly $40 Million when you're looking at a Billion dollar movie, so in all likelihood, Barbie is probably about $10 or $20 Million or so behind where SMB was worldwide at this point in their runs.




ETA: See how weird the math is when you put in these fuzzy international numbers???

https://www.vulture.com/2023/04/super-mario-bros-box-office-1-billion-
globally.html

Barbie apparently is not behind SMB at this point in their run, because according to both Forbes and Vulture, SMB hit $1 Billion on April 30th, which was 26 days into the run. Barbie managed that in only 17 days.


Before the Barbie fans celebrate though, I've got a good reason for this discrepancy this time though...

The Super Mario Bros. Movie was not released in South Korea until April 26th and Japan until April 28th.

With about $120 Million of box office receipts between the 2 of them, that would account for at least $40 or $50 Million showing up late in that worldwide gross for SMB. maybe not enough to keep Barbie from taking $1

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Addition to the above Barbie/Super Mario Bros. prediction...

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254740830-Weekend-projections-Barbie-
hits-a-billion-Meg-2-takes-second-place

Bruce brings up a few good points, although if he has realized that SMB's international numbers didn't get a late jump-start with the delayed releases in Japan and South Korea he still hasn't mentioned it.

Quote:

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Barbie’s $53 million will be the 11th-biggest 3rd weekend for a movie in history, a slight dip after posting the 7th-biggest 2nd weekend, and notably behind Mario’s $59.9-million 3rd weekend. Our head-to-head comparison chart between the two films shows Barbie continuing to outpace Mario handily though thanks to much higher Summertime weekday numbers—$11.8 million last Thursday compared to Mario’s $4.9 million on the same day in its run, for example. With schools out for the rest of August, by and large, Barbie will most likely end up the winner between the two films at the domestic box office. It has a steeper hill to climb internationally, and Mario may still end the year as the top-grossing film worldwide.

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I didn't look at the weekday numbers between the two films. I usually don't look too deeply into them unless I'm doing direct movie comparisons on the regular. It's something I would have started doing now that Barbie vs. SMB has become interesting. And yeah, even though Barbie isn't technically a kid's movie, it makes sense that it will benefit from summertime when school is out.

He does mention that it has a steeper hill to climb internationally though and because of that SMB may still be the top-grossing film worldwide for this year.


Both Barbie and Oppenheimer came in well under the predictions this week, with Meg 2 and the TMNT movie taking a big bite out of them.


Haunted Mansion did worse than predicted as well, so we're going to have another Disney movie pulling the studio even further down than it has already fallen in 2023. And even with the lower-than-Bruce/JSF-predicted weekend box office for SoF, it shouldn't be long before SoF overtakes yet another big-budget hollywood dumpster-fire. Haunted Mansion with more than 10 times SoF's budget will never come close to making what SoF made domestically, and depending on how well SoF does overseas, with $17 Million in the bank internationally after the 2nd weekend, Haunted Mansion might also make less money than SoF there as well.

Last weekend SoF made 54% of what Haunted Mansion made at the Domestic Box Office. This weekend it made 78% of what Haunted Mansion did.

MI7 got really close on Saturday and Sunday to SoF's projections. Close enough where it might have broken the 16-day streak of being beaten by SoF once actual numbers come in. Especially on Sunday where the projected difference between the two films was only $41,000.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
MI7 got really close on Saturday and Sunday to SoF's projections. Close enough where it might have broken the 16-day streak of being beaten by SoF once actual numbers come in. Especially on Sunday where the projected difference between the two films was only $41,000.

---

Well now... SoF continues to amaze.

That Sunday gap widened substantially when the real SoF numbers came out. It appears that Angel Studios was being conservative in their estimates for the weekend.

What was once only a $41,000 on Sunday is now a $527,447 difference.

Although, the Saturday projection didn't seem to benefit much with only a $250,372 difference between SoF's actual numbers and MI7's projection, which isn't much more than the SoF projections were showing. Friday wasn't very different from the projection either.

In total, SoF made $7,570,422 for the weekend, up from just slightly over $7 Million in projections.

Nowhere near the $9-$10 Million that others were predicting, but it looks as though SoF has no worries about MI7 breaking its losing streak between the two.


With this extra money banked, SoF also broke the next Million barrier to over $164 Million, meaning that instead of only being at 1,164% of Production Budget, it is now 1,171% after Weekend 5. Only 186% behind Super Mario Bros., 304% behind M3GAN, and 140% ahead of Barbie's 1,031%, which appears to have picked up another $31 Million+ in international numbers since being introduced to the Billion Dollar Movie Club yesterday (and will likely pick up some more domestic numbers after the true weekend earnings come in).

Also...

Quote:

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After Saturday/Sunday Projections:

1. M3GAN - 1,475% [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros - 1,357% (+0%)
3. Sound of Freedom - 1,164% (+28%)
4. Insidious: The Red Door - 1,138% (+38%)
5. Barbie - 882% (+36%)

SoF needs 193% to beat SMB.
SoF needs 311% to beat M3GAN.
SoF is 282% above Barbie.

Though there are no confirmed-by-country dates for Insidious over the last two days yet, the "Rest of World" number must have had some additions to it already. It's only added a little over a million Domestic this weekend, which only accounts for about 6 or 7% depending on rounding, but it went up a full 38% since early yesterday when I updated it.

None of the international numbers for Barbie have come in yet, however, so the 36% it gained in the last two days were the Domestic Box Office projections. It's probably made in the area of 110% to 140% internationally since the last updates, which could possibly cut SoF's current lead in half.

---

With the additional $31 Million that Warner Bros. found in Barbie's International pink couch cushions, Barbie actually defied my high-end international expectations I'd been harping on all week and increased 149% once all of the international numbers came in. To be fair to my prediction range though, if Barbie's Domestic projections for the weekend prove to have been decently conservative, the real numbers would have bumped up my international additions range at least a few more points if not all the way to 150% for the high end.

With SoF's lead before international numbers came in for Barbie being at 282% (and SoF's additional 7% for doing better than the projections), but now falling to only 140%, that's yet one more prediction I've made regarding movies I don't watch coming true. SoF's lead only 1% away from being cut EXACTLY in half? I don't think anybody could be expected to ever get any closer to reality with a prediction than that.

Maybe that's the secret, Bruce? You need to hire somebody like me who doesn't actually watch any of the movies to make predictions about how they'll perform.

Unlike the awful writers in Hollywood, somebody with a track record vs. your models like I've been building here wouldn't be so easily replaced with AI.




---------------------------------

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Unlike the awful writers in Hollywood, somebody with a track record vs. your models like I've been building here wouldn't be so easily replaced with AI.

---

6ix, you are A Very Stable Genius.
This movie was made in Finland but didn't earn the kind of money Hollywood expects:

Sisu (2023)
Worldwide Box Office $10,850,427
A hybrid action/war/revenge film with enough octane to blast Michael Bay out of competition.

This is the kind of movie Hollywood has forgotten how to make. Not since Sin City have I seen something that is so unabashedly a celebration of violence.

From start to finish I was utterly engaged. The movie does a fine dance of having The Immortal be a super badass, yet never so much that there are no stakes. Every chapter has stakes and good tension. It's such a hard thing to do, yet the film makers have done a wonderful job keeping you literally on the edge of your seat.

If Hollywood isn't going to give us what we want to see, someone else will. Nice to see that someone is stepping up to the plate to fill the void of GLORY.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Sisu-(2023-Finland)#tab=summary
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/sisu
https://thepiratebay.org/search.php?q=Sisu+2023

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

Unlike the awful writers in Hollywood, somebody with a track record vs. your models like I've been building here wouldn't be so easily replaced with AI.

---

6ix, you are A Very Stable Genius.

---

I'll quote you on that.

But I don't need to. I practically predicted Barbie's international take for last week down to the penny.



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How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I'll quote you on that.

But I don't need to. I practically predicted Barbie's international take for last week down to the penny.

---

You missed the part where movies not made by Hollywood, even if just as good (Sisu for one example), make only 5% of what a genuine Hollywood product makes. The explanation could be as simple as Sisu is the wrong name to market a movie. Hollywood knows but Finland doesn't. The movie begins:

"SISU is a Finnish word that cannot be translated. It means a white-knuckled form of courage and unimaginable determination. SISU manifests itself when all hope is lost.”
https://hoff.ee/en/film/sisu/

I've been there and done that and have the scars so I was impressed by a movie that would use a unique word that nobody but the Finns know. Unfortunately for ticket sales, the rest of the world was not similarly moved and didn't see Sisu.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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UPDATED LISTS: Late-Afternoon of 08/07 on The-Numbers...

LIST 1: WORLDWIDE OPENING VS. PRODUCTION BUDGET

Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend including all American made films currently in the global top 50, or those that were earlier in the year and have been pushed off (I also went ahead and added the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movie that came out this week since it will be on the top 50 in a week or two):

1 Insidious: The Red Door / Budget: $16,000,000 / WWO: $64,000,000 / 400%
2 The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
3 M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
4 Barbie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $356,000,000 / 356%
5 Sound of Freedom / Budget: $14,000,000 / WWO: $42,000,000 / 300%
6 Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
7 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
8 The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
9 Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
10 Oppenheimer / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $180,000,000 / 180%
11 John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
12 Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
13 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
14 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
15 Meg 2: The Trench / Budget: $129,000,000 / WWO: $142,000,000 / 110%
16 Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
17 Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
18 Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
19 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
20 Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt1 / Budget: $290,000,000 / WWO: $235,000,000 81%
21 Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
22 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $52,000,000 / 74%
23 The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
24 The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
25 Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
26 No Hard Feelings / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $22,000,000 / 49%
27 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
28 Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny / Budget: $300,000,000 / WWO: $131,000,000 / 43.7%
29 AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
30 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
31 The Flash / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $75,000,000 / 38%
32 Elemental / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $48,000,000 / 24%
33 Haunted Mansion / Budget: $157,750,000 / WWO: $33,082,475 / 21%
34 Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%

SPECIAL MENTION:
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?



LIST 2: WINNERS AND LOSERS (ACCORDING TO 2X RULE OF THUMB):

Winners:

1. M3GAN made 1,475% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros Movie made 1,355% of its production budget of $100 Million.
3. Sound of Freedom made 1,171% of its production budget of $14 Million.
4. Insidious: The Red Door made 1,138% of its production budget of $16 Million.
5. Barbie made 1,033% of its production budget of $100 Million.
6. Evil Dead Rise made 768% of its production budget of $19 Million. [FINAL]
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse made 683% of its production budget of $100 Million.
8. Oppenheimer made 556% of its production budget of $100 Million.
9. Scream IV made 483% of its production budget of $35 Million. [FINAL]
10. Mummies made 442% of its production budget of $12 Million.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

---

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I'll quote you on that.

But I don't need to. I practically predicted Barbie's international take for last week down to the penny.

---

You missed the part where movies not made by Hollywood, even if just as good (Sisu for one example), make only 5% of what a genuine Hollywood product makes.

---

It's a good thing you're not an accountant, because you have no idea how to balance books or what actually makes something profitable.

SPOILER ALERT: If you spent more money than you made in the end, you didn't make a profit no matter how much income you generated.

SPOILER ALERT 2: If you spent so much that you hardly generated a profit at the end, the guy who spent 10 to 30 times less than you did needs to make 10 to 30 times less money than you do before every extra dollar becomes profit.

SPOILER ALERT 3: In terms of percentages made vs. budget, 7 out of the 10 most profitable movies so far in 2023 had a budget of $35 Million or less. 6 out of the 10 most profitable movies so far in 2023 had a budget under $20 Million. Only 3 of the most profitable movies so far in 2023 had a budget of exactly $100 Million.

SPOILER ALERT 4: In terms of percentages made vs. budget, Disney doesn't even show up until 15th place on the list for its first movie that generated any profit for the company this year. If the Rule of Thumb is 2.5x in 2023 instead of 2.0x, it Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 will likely be the only movie that Disney put out this year that made any money at all. The only possible exceptions to that would be some of the micro-budget movies they still have to release this year.

SPOILER ALERT 5: In terms of actual cold hard cash generated after costs, the lists aren't any kinder to big budget movies, mostly Disney created in 2023, but even outside of Disney as well.

As a whole, as far as movies that have completed their Box Office run this year, there have been 13 movies in the worldwide top 50 that generated $958,677,847 in actual profit in the Box Office. 8 of those 13 had micro-budgets of $20 Million or less. 1 of those 13 had a budget of $35 Million. 1 had a budget of $70 Million. 1 had a budget of $100 Million.

The other two had budgets of $200 Million and $340 Million and only account for $64 Million and $39 Million of that total $959 Million in 2023 profits, respectively. Barely 10% of the actual 2023 Box Office profits so far going to movies that cost more than $100 Million to make.

As far as the finished movies that have lost money this year there are 6 movies totaling losses of $459,792,750. None of them had a small budget. Two of them had a budget of $45 Million. One a budget of $70 Million. The other three "blockbusters" had budgets of $125 Million, $130 Million, and $200 Million.

Hollywood hasn't even made $500 Million on finished movies in 2023 so far after the losses, and the majority of that profit has come from small budget movies.



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