The 2023 Disney Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, January 25, 2024 20:58
VIEWED: 8549
PAGE 1 of 13
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.
[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 01/22/2024]
Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:
The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598
The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628
The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629
The Marvels Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65760
The Wish Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65805
NOTE 1: With most sites including Variety and Deadline calling films that grossed 2.0x of their budget failures, and most movies sites tracking the success or failure of a movie's ability to break even based off if it can gross 2.5x of its Production Budget, I have now made 2.5x the marker for whether a movie is a failure or not.
The 2.0x numbers will still be tallied for the rest of the year, but if I choose to track movies again next year I will only be keeping track of 2.5x.
NOTE 2: To not completely ignore international changes from week to week, I've simplified the explanation of +/- money any movie makes whether it's still in theaters or not for each entry. Just one single line now.
Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:
Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry
Box Office: $0 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]
Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $845,468,744 (338% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: +$220,468,744 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$345,468,744 [FINAL]
Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303 (232% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$36,364,697 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]
The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $568,345,048 (227% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$56,654,952 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$68,345,048 [FINAL]
The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $82,344,833 (234% of Production Budget)
*No change from last update. (01/22)
Net Gain/Loss [2.5x RoT]: -$5,155,167 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss [2.0x RoT]: +$12,344,833 [FINAL]
Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening
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What constitutes a Win vs. a Loss?
There's one simple mathmateical rule that makes or breaks a film in this analysis. This is that a film's TOTAL cost is figured by doubling production budget for the marketing budget and theater take. No ifs, ands or buts.
Obviously, every circumstance is unique to a degree, and there SHOULD be nuance here... but because the Studios do not release anything more than production budgets (most of the time) and choose to hide marketing budgets and theater takes as much as they hide their streaming numbers on their streaming services, the only choice we're left with here is to go with what has become the generally accepted rule of thumb when it comes to the number a film needs to make in the box office to break even, which is twice the stated Production Budget.
Some people might (rightly) point out that this is unfair to certain movies because their marketing wasn't huge and they didn't see a lot of ads on TV for a particular release, but again, we don't actually get these figures in the end, nor do we get any numbers on actually how many ads were played on TV, streaming, radio, etc. and any complaints about this for a movie would be purely anecdotal.
That being said, this can also work out to benefit particular movies greatly as well. It's said that Disney spent $10 Million of their Marketing budget alone to put a very poorly received ad for The Little Mermaid right in the middle of the 2023 Oscars, and that the marketing budget of this particular flick ended up being MUCH higher than the amount that would fit our rule of thumb, with some industry insiders making the claim that The Little Mermaid would actually need to make $700 to $750 Million to break even instead of the $500 Million that we're counting here. Again, I consider this claim to be baseless unless absolutely proven without a doubt otherwise, and the rule of thumb stands.
But I would like to make a special note here...
Everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE came out and said that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania a disappointment at best and a major flop at worst. Nobody, except for people attached to the movie have said otherwise. Even uber-Leftist Disney shill site Vox used it as the poster child for its "Marvel Flop Era" article.
Yet that movie met and exceeded the rule of thumb, earning $463,635,303 worldwide, and $63,635,303 (or 15.9%) above the $400,000,000 rule of thumb total after doubling the $200,000,000 production budget.
A slim win for Disney, and one that doesn't do much to offset its growing 2023 Box Office losses, but a win nonetheless.
So I just find it curious how the same websites which were shockingly quick (and frankly just downright shocking) to point out that Quantumania was a failure and a disappointment for Disney will say out of the other side of their faces that The Little Mermaid (which currently sits at -$34,747,565 below the Rule of Thumb and will not likely do as well as Quantumanaia's 15.9% above when its done) is not a failure or a flop. Particularly when the same reasoning behind why it is a flop should apply. ie: Marvel used to make $1 Billion+ nearly every movie VS. Disney live-action remakes almost always made $1 Billion+.
The truth is that even though Quantumania is a "Winner" on the list, it was still a flop for Disney, and even though The Little Mermaid will very likely just make the Winner list by the skin of its teeth before exiting theaters, it is also a flop for Disney.
Had both of these movies made $1 Billion like they were almost certainly expected to when the heads of the studio went into starting the productions, Disney would already be up in the 2023 Box Office by over $800 Million, and they would not be nearly as concerned about their current Pixar Elemental flop or their impending Indy 5 flop.
Disney DESPERATELY needs a win, and in all honesty I don't really see one coming for the rest of the year. Some of their smaller FOX Searchlight movies will probably do alright
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FIRINGS:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (June 16th, 2023):
Long-time Disney shot-caller Christine McCarthy fired from Disney. She was treasurer for the company from 2000 to 2015 when she was promoted to Disney's CFO.
Many considered her next in line after Bob Iger for the CEO position. She was behind removing Bob Chapek and putting Iger back in charge just late last year.
Everyone is saying she's taking "family medical leave", but Iger has said they're already searching for her permanent replacement. They're going to give her some sort of "advisor" title until her contract is up in June of next year, where she will still be making her $20 Million per year salary.
She was CFO during the entire time that Disney ruined Star Wars, Marvel, their own animation studio and their own Pixar brand. Nobody can blame the ruination of Indiana Jones on her, however, since Kingdom of the Crystal Skull came out 7 years before she took the position. The newest entry coming out in 8 days won't help the brand though.
This isn't indicative of Disney making any steps forward to fixing its brand since Bob Iger is still in charge. Though relatively ineffective, it was easy for everyone to throw Bob Chapek under the bus when he got politically involved in Florida and became the catalyst for Disney losing their Reedy Creek special status in the state, but Bob Iger has been the true face of the decline of Disney after the Renaissance years of Michael Eisner in the late 80's through the early 2000s.
Disney's "Chief Diversity Officer" FIRED
This was announced at 9:30PM on Juneteenth and HR put a memo out for her to her former employees. She isn't moving on her own accord. She was fired, and she likely had a nice security escort right out her door to her car.
They're "searching" for a new DEI. Why bother? Shut it down.
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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.
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Doomcock is saying Leslye Headland just got the boot from Lucasfilm
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Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
Doomcock is saying Leslye Headland just got the boot from Lucasfilm
That's interesting, and it would be another great step forward for Disney, but I'll believe that when I see it. I've been hearing Doomcock say for years that Kathleen Kennedy was going to be fired.
He's got some good sources, and he's got some bad sources.
I don't see anything out there other than his video and a few YT copycats talking about him talking about it yet.
Would be a nice surprise to wake up to in the morning though.
I mean... Not for that man-hating diversity hire bitch, but a nice surprise for people who like good movies.
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Looks like a lot more people are talking about the firing of Leslye Headland and the cancellation of Acolyte, but it's all still rumors, despite several outlets claiming that this has been confirmed in their headlines.
My guess is that if this is actually true, you're not going to hear any legitimate confirmation until late on Friday so it gets no Legacy Media news coverage and they can attempt to sweep it under the rug for the normies.
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Stats for 6/20/2023:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:
Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry
Box Office: $0
Net Gain/Loss: -$170 Million - Marketing Costs
Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend:
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303
Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $819,594,064 (328% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)
Net Gain/Loss: +$319,594,064 Million (as of 06/20/2023)
Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):
The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $465,252,435 (186% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)
Net Gain/Loss: -$34,747,565 (as of 06/20/2023)
The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $51,212,827 (145% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)
Net Gain/Loss: -$18,787,173 (as of 06/20/2023)
Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget as of 06/20/2023)
Net Gain/Loss: -$355,397,571 (as of 06/20/2023)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $295,000,000
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Jones_and_the_Dial_of_Destiny
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A
Net Gain/Loss: TBD
CANCELLED MOVIES:
Star Wars: Rogue Squadron [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (December 22nd, 2023)
[CANCELLED]
So far in 2023, we've got a cancelled Star Wars flick and Disney is currently down $195,702,942 with current Box Office numbers. The only thing keeping them reasonably afloat with the current string of box office flops that will be extended by quite a bit when Indy 5 comes out is the $319+ and still rising box office win on Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3, and the extremely-disappointing-yet-still-barely-financial-win of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's $63+ Million. (More on that in the next post)
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Disney Might Have Lost Almost $900 Million at the Box Office in the Past Year
https://www.disneyfanatic.com/disney-lost-900-million-box-office-pk1/
From The Little Mermaid Failure thread on 06/26/2023:
Quote:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The Little Mermaid will gross $500 Million Worldwide after Monday's numbers come in.
True to my word, I will put it in the "winners" category based off the twice the production budget rule of thumb, but the investors at Disney know the true numbers that were behind this and I suspect that we're going to see a huge ramp-down of live-action Disney remakes after this one failed to get even close to $1 Billion like its predecessors did while being the 2nd most expensive live-action remake in history for the company.
In any event, unless I find out any undeniable information about the non-Production Budget financials being more than usually spent to promote this film, any small amount of money TLM makes going forward will be subtracting from Disney's gaping money pit of 2023.
OH... and all that being said, I'd really appreciate it if YouTubers and movie review sites were to back up their claims that a movie now needs to make 2.5 to 3 times the production budget to break even. Especially given the rise in costs of EVERYTHING during the Biden* Administration, I'm not going to argue that this isn't true, but somebody needs to bring some real receipts to the table proving this when it's been generally accepted for years that a movie had to double its production budget to break even. As I stated several times in these failure threads, I will not move the goalposts on this just to make the numbers look more in line than what I want to see, and I feel that this is happening more and more often as the year drags on with zero concrete evidence available to back up those claims.
We're going back quite a bit into 2022 to get that figure of $900 Million lost for Disney, and that includes some movies that did well such as Wakanda Forever. This article was also posted on a pro-Disney site.
I will be analyzing that video and seeing if he comes up with any proof of that number that would be worth re-figuring the Rule of Thumb.
Though not linked in the article, this is the video that they were referring to for you to view yourself.
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So far, I have not been able to find any firm confirmation from Deadline about these "distributor rental" costs in the US/International/China that was referred to in this video. According to Wikipedia, the production company takes 43% on average in current times but is quick to point out that this can vary "widely" on a per-movie basis.
I will look deeper into this when I have time to look. With no concrete evidence to the contrary, I think I'll just continue to use the rule of thumb as the year plays out, and if by the end of the year I'm satisfied that these claims are warranted, I will also use this alternate method to put the data together and leave both figures here for comparison when all the 2023 movies are finished with their box office run.
Two interesting things to note from the video...
1. I was curious as to why Avatar 2 wasn't included in his the list of movies. It appears that Disney got the distribution rights for A2 with the FOX deal, but the ownership and creation of A2 was still in the hands of James Cameron's Lightstorm Entertainment which is getting the lion's share of the movie's profits.
2. Disney used to make tons of money licensing out its Marvel (and other) properties to other streaming services like Netflix, but now it doesn't make any money keeping it all on their own streaming service that has been reported by many news outlets to have been losing billions of dollars over the years.
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Stats for 06/26
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This will encompass all Disney/Pixar/Fox Studios failures for the year. This OP will be updated from time to time as more data comes in, particularly when a movie officially ends its theatrical run and we have solid numbers.
[ALL FIGURES UPDATED 06/26/2023]
Sub-threads for notable movies can be found here:
The Little Mermaid Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65598
The Elemental Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65628
The Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Failure Thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=65629
Live Action Remakes that were so bad they skipped a theatrical release and went straight to Disney+:
Peter Pan and Wendy (April 23rd, 2023)
Production Budget: $170 Million
source: https://vancouversun.com/entertainment/local-arts/disney-peter-pan-wen
dy-canadian-film-industry
Box Office: $0 [FINAL]
Net Gain/Loss: -$170,000,000 - Marketing Costs (Unknown) [FINAL]
Theatrical Releases (WINNERS):
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania * [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (February 17th, 2023)
Production Budget: $200,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp-Quantumania-(20
23)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $250,000,000 (125% of Production Budget)
FINAL Worldwide Gross: $463,635,303
Net Gain/Loss: +$63,635,303 [FINAL]
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3. [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (May 5th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Guardians-of-the-Galaxy-Vol-3-(2023)
#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $290,000,000 (116% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $824,012,726 (330% of Production Budget)
Net Gain/Loss: +$324,012,726 Million
Theatrical Releases (LOSERS):
The Little Mermaid [Walt Disney Pictures] (May 26th, 2023)
Production Budget: $250,000,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Little-Mermaid-The-(2023)#tab=summar
y
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $164,000,000 (66% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $499,220,837 (199.69% of Production Budget)
Net Gain/Loss: -$779,163
The Boogeyman [20th Century Studios] (June 2nd, 2023)
Production Budget: $35,000,000
source: https://variety.com/2023/film/news/the-boogeyman-director-indie-movies
-disney-1235620503/
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $20,000,000 (57% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $56,321,938 (161% of Production Budget)
Net Gain/Loss: -$13,678,062
Elemental [Walt Disney Pictures/Disney-Pixar] (June 16th, 2023)
source: https://screenrant.com/elemental-movie-budget-box-office-prediction/
Production Budget: $200,000,000
Worldwide Opening Weekend: $44,602,429 (22% of Production Budget)
Current Worldwide Gross: $121,096,376 (61% of Production Budget)
Net Gain/Loss: -$278,903,624
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny [Walt Disney Pictures/Lucasfilm] (June 30th, 2023)
Production Budget: $295,000,000
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Jones_and_the_Dial_of_Destiny
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A
Net Gain/Loss: TBD
YET TO BE RELEASED:
Theater Camp [FOX Searchlight Pictures] (July 14th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A
Net Gain/Loss: TBD
Haunted Mansion [Walt Disney Pictures] (July 28th, 2023)
Production Budget: $157,750,000
source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Haunted-Mansion-(2023)#tab=summary
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A
Net Gain/Loss: TBD
A Haunting in Venice [20th Century Studios] (September 15th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown
Worldwide Opening Weekend: TBD
Current Worldwide Gross: N/A
Net Gain/Loss: TBD
The Marvels [Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios] (November 10th, 2023)
Production Budget: Unknown... At least $130 Million... two years ago.
source: https://www.forbes.com/sNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME