The Little Mermaid Failure Thread
POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 4, 2023 22:24
VIEWED: 8273
PAGE 8 of 12
The answer is probably not. The Lucasfilm brand is not worth enough money for Disney to sell in its current state. All-in-all, Disney has only been able to gross about 1/4 of the money that it paid for Lucasfilm in 2012, mostly because the merchandising that was always guaranteed income for Star Wars has become a loss for the company with merchandise sitting on the shelves 8 years after a movie is released. If Disney were to sell Lucasfilm entirely, they'd have to either take down everything related to Star-Wars from their theme parks, or they'd have to pay the new owners licensing rights. The third option would be to not sell Lucasfilm entirely and maintain licensing rights, but that sale would be for much less money and with Disney still at least $2.5 Billion in the hole after the purchase they made 11 years ago, Lucasfilm simply isn't worth enough money to actually sell to anyone, let alone George Lucas.
Disney currently is $48.4 Billion in debt in total.
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Bruce predicted $30.3 Million for this bomb last weekend and it made $23.15 Million.
This weekend he predicts it will make $14.7 Million.
With Disney's other woke Pixar flick in direct competition with it now, the Transformers movie and Spider Man still which are also geared toward kids still making money and a Super Mario movie that's still in over 1,400 theaters, I'm going to call $12 Million and change.
The international box office on this woke turd is only $185 Million, and the chances this makes $300 Million in the US is looking bleaker every week.
It will crack $450 Million by the end of this weekend when the international numbers come on, but will that be enough for it to even break $500 Million when it's out of theaters?
I should have gone with my gut and said it won't make a dime over $12 Million this weekend.
Studio Projections: $11,600,000
I still think there's a good chance I was right. With only $400k wiggle room the projections are at least a 50/50 shot that this figure is low and it still made over $12 Million for the weekend.
Bruce Nash needs to throw out his models and just hire me to do his predictions from now on.
His predicted entire box office for the weekend was over $220 Million and the projections are now only $160 Million.
Nobody wants to see any of this woke bullshit anymore.
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What are you doing, Bruce? Don't simp for the big corporations.
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The Flash will take some consolation from a $75-million debut internationally, but this is a disappointing start to the new DC Universe, albeit a better start than Shazam! Fury of the Gods’ $30.1 million. Black Adam is probably a better benchmark, and it opened with $67 million back in October. Black Adam made $7.6 million from previews compared to The Flash’s $9.7 million, which gives a measure of how much The Flash has fallen away through the weekend.
Things look even worse for Elemental, which risks posting the lowest opening ever for a Pixar movie, a record held by their very first film, Toy Story, which opened wit $29.1 million way back in 1995.
Given that both films are getting generally good reviews and a positive reaction from audiences, one question worth asking is whether competition with other films is a factor here. There’s definitely evidence for that, with all films in the top six looking like they will end the weekend more than 20% behind our model’s Friday-morning prediction. Summer weather may be a factor too, and the Juneteenth long weekend could be causing some people to wait until Monday to go to the movies.
No dude. And you know it. It wasn't about other films being in competition that lowered these numbers. You predicted a $220 Million dollar box office this weekend and got a $163 Million box office instead.
THAT'S A $57 MILLION DEFICIT FOR ALL FILMS IN THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND!!!!
It wasn't the weather either. You know full well and have posted it before that when it gets hot outside people are more likely to pay to go see a movie in the nice air conditioning.
And it sure as hell wasn't Juneteenth. The only people who get that day off are bankers, teachers, post office workers and other government employees. Everybody else works on Juneteenth, including a vast majority of the blacks that the holiday is made for.
You'd better put the "Woke Factor" into your prediction models going forward, hire me to make your predictions, or just keep doing what you're doing and pretending you don't know why your models are failing you until you become irrelevant.
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Is South Korea Really Racist? Koreans Explain Why “The Little Mermaid” Tanked In Local Box Offices
https://www.koreaboo.com/news/little-mermaid-korea-racist-reason-flopp
ed/
Yes, Koreans. I agree. Fuck CNN.
Disney Faces Box Office Setbacks: ‘The Little Mermaid’ Woke Remake Fails to Make Waves
https://www.tvmix.com/disney-faces-box-office-setbacks-the-little-merm
aid-woke-remake-fails-to-make-waves/123
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Disney’s struggles with “The Little Mermaid” remake are indicative of larger issues within the company. The once-unassailable entertainment empire is grappling with declining theme park attendance and a string of underperforming television shows. In an industry where success hinges on adaptability to changing trends and audience preferences, Disney’s formula seems to be losing its charm. Despite its vast array of intellectual properties and an enormous fan base, the company is finding it increasingly difficult to resonate with audiences as it did in the past.
While “The Little Mermaid” is just one piece of the puzzle, it exemplifies the broader challenges Disney is currently facing. From diminishing theme park footfall to lackluster TV series, the cracks in Disney’s armor are becoming more apparent. To regain its former glory, the company must reevaluate its strategies and recapture the magic that once made it an unrivaled entertainment powerhouse.
In a rapidly evolving industry, companies that fail to adapt risk falling behind their competitors. Disney now stands at a crossroads where it must reinvent itself to remain relevant and regain the trust and enthusiasm of its supporters. Whether the House of Mouse can weather this storm and reclaim its status as the reigning champion of the entertainment industry remains to be seen.
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The writers of the reboot must have gotten confused and thought Ursula was Genie from Aladdin. She might have given black not-Ariel legs, but they are about as useless as Stephen Hawking's were to him.
Weekend projections were more than half a million high and the turd just barely made $11 Million on weekend 4 in the US. All of the international reporting is up to date as of today. Still needs $35 Million to double the production budget and save itself from being a complete flop.
Some analysts say that it needs $700-750 Million to break even because of the extra money that was put into marketing on this one, but without having ACTUAL marketing numbers on hand I can't verify that and I will put it in the "Winner" category in the ongoing 2023 box office tables if it hits $500 Million because I don't pick and choose when I apply arguments like some people here do. But even then, it will still be 16th place on the list of 23 US produced movies that have made the top 35 worldwide releases globally for 2023. (Which, incidentally, directly mirrors what place it currently sits in its global opening weekend vs. production budget numbers).
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Worldwide Opening Weekend and percentage of Production Budget made on opening weekend including all American made films in the global top 35:
1 The Super Mario Bros. Movie / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $377,000,000 / 377%
2 M3GAN / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: $45,000,000 / 375%
3 Evil Dead Rise / Budget: $19,000,000 / WWO: $40,000,000 / 210%
4 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $209,000,000 / 209%
5 The Pope's Exorcist / Budget: $18,000,000 / WWO: $36,500,000 / 203%
6 Scream VI / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $67,000,000 / 191%
7 John Wick: Chapter 4 / Budget: $100,000,000 / WWO: $138,000,000 / 138%
8 Creed III / Budget: $75,000,000 / WWO: $100,000,000 / 133%
9 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania / Budget: $200,000,000 / WWO: $250,000,000 / 125%
10 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $290,000,000 / 116%
11 Knock at the Cabin / Budget: $20,000,000 / WWO: $21,000,000 / 105%
12 Jesus Revolution / Budget: $15,000,000 / WWO: $15,000,000 / 100%
13 Fast X / Budget: $340,000,000 / WWO: $319,000,000 / 94%
14 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts / Budget: $195,000,000 / WWO: $170,000,000 / 87%
15 Cocaine Bear / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $28,000,000 / 80%
16 The Little Mermaid / Budget: $250,000,000 / WWO: $164,000,000 / 66%
17 The Boogeyman / Budget: $35,000,000 / WWO: $20,000,000 / 57%
18 Shazam: Fury of the Gods / Budget: $125,000,000 / WWO: $66,000,000 / 53%
19 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves / Budget: $150,000,000 / WWO: $72,000,000 / 48%
20 AIR / Budget: $70,000,000 / WWO: $30,000,000 / 43%
21 65 / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $12,300,000 / 27%
22 Magic Mike's Last Dance / Budget: $45,000,000 / WWO: $8,000,000 / 18%
SPECIAL MENTION:
Mummies / Budget: $12,000,000 / WWO: Unknown / ?
A movie that I've never even heard of until just right now called Mummies is currently 31st on the global list at $53,193,065 and needs a mention because only 8.04% (less than $5 Million) of that came from the domestic market, while the other 91.96% came from international box office. It has now made 442% of its production budget back, making it a clear winner based off of its low budget and its extremely high international take vs domestic take, two things which The Little Mermaid has never had in its favor.
The Little Mermaid is hanging out with all the flops. The only ones even remotely close to it that will succeed will do so because they had reasonable budgets.
And the only other list that matters:
Winners and losers from the previous list:
Winners:
1. M3GAN made 1,475% of its production budget of $12 Million. [FINAL]
2. Super Mario Bros MoNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What are you doing, Bruce? Don't simp for the big corporations.Quote:
The Flash will take some consolation from a $75-million debut internationally, but this is a disappointing start to the new DC Universe, albeit a better start than Shazam! Fury of the Gods’ $30.1 million. Black Adam is probably a better benchmark, and it opened with $67 million back in October. Black Adam made $7.6 million from previews compared to The Flash’s $9.7 million, which gives a measure of how much The Flash has fallen away through the weekend.
Things look even worse for Elemental, which risks posting the lowest opening ever for a Pixar movie, a record held by their very first film, Toy Story, which opened wit $29.1 million way back in 1995.
Given that both films are getting generally good reviews and a positive reaction from audiences, one question worth asking is whether competition with other films is a factor here. There’s definitely evidence for that, with all films in the top six looking like they will end the weekend more than 20% behind our model’s Friday-morning prediction. Summer weather may be a factor too, and the Juneteenth long weekend could be causing some people to wait until Monday to go to the movies.
No dude. And you know it. It wasn't about other films being in competition that lowered these numbers. You predicted a $220 Million dollar box office this weekend and got a $163 Million box office instead.
THAT'S A $57 MILLION DEFICIT FOR ALL FILMS IN THE BOX OFFICE THIS WEEKEND!!!!
It wasn't the weather either. You know full well and have posted it before that when it gets hot outside people are more likely to pay to go see a movie in the nice air conditioning.
And it sure as hell wasn't Juneteenth. The only people who get that day off are bankers, teachers, post office workers and other government employees. Everybody else works on Juneteenth, including a vast majority of the blacks that the holiday is made for.
You'd better put the "Woke Factor" into your prediction models going forward, hire me to make your predictions, or just keep doing what you're doing and pretending you don't know why your models are failing you until you become irrelevant.
Juneteenth Numbers:
Movie Title / Juneteenth Take / Percent Drop from Sunday
1 The Flash $6,160,801 -60%
2 Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse $6,101,912 -31%
3 Elemental $5,304,25 -34%
4 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $3,321,458 -58%
5 The Little Mermaid $2,705,927 -6%
With the exception of the single-digit loss for black not-Ariel, Juneteenth didn't move the needle. In fact, if you look at the Monday's for all of the big box office movies this year, particularly when they've reached that $3 to $6 Million per day area, the percentage drops are right in line with what they always are from Sunday to Monday.
So that's 2 out of 3 of your theories debunked by math, with the third about the weather debunked before you wrote it.
My guess will be that every movie on that list will have made more money on Cheap Seat Tuesday than they did on Juneteenth once yesterday's numbers come in.
The Flash in particular just took a huge beating. It only pulled in $59k more than the Miles Morales sequel that's already been out for 18 days.
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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My guess will be that every movie on that list will have made more money on Cheap Seat Tuesday than they did on Juneteenth once yesterday's numbers come in.
I was wrong. They all made even less money on cheap seat Tuesday than the abysmal-for-a-holiday Juneteenth numbers. Every single one of them.
Throw all the woke trash in the bin.
I'm quite enjoying watching Hollywood finally burn.
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Originally posted by second:
The blowback – much of it overtly racist – has also played out among ordinary Chinese film-goers online.
Meanwhile, the two movies that Chinese people WERE choosing to see in droves while they avoided this woke disaster like the plague were Black Spider-Man Miles Morales and the extremely diverse cast of Fast X.
Another good story ruined by reality.
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The Little Mermaid will gross $500 Million Worldwide after Monday's numbers come in.
True to my word, I will put it in the "winners" category based off the twice the production budget rule of thumb, but the investors at Disney know the true numbers that were behind this and I suspect that we're going to see a huge ramp-down of live-action Disney remakes after this one failed to get even close to $1 Billion like its predecessors did while being the 2nd most expensive live-action remake in history for the company.
In any event, unless I find out any undeniable information about the non-Production Budget financials being more than usually spent to promote this film, any small amount of money TLM makes going forward will be subtracting from Disney's gaping money pit of 2023.
OH... and all that being said, I'd really appreciate it if YouTubers and movie review sites were to back up their claims that a movie now needs to make 2.5 to 3 times the production budget to break even. Especially given the rise in costs of EVERYTHING during the Biden* Administration, I'm not going to argue that this isn't true, but somebody needs to bring some real receipts to the table proving this when it's been generally accepted for years that a movie had to double its production budget to break even. As I stated several times in these failure threads, I will not move the goalposts on this just to make the numbers look more in line than what I want to see, and I feel that this is happening more and more often as the year drags on with zero concrete evidence available to back up those claims.
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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
OH... and all that being said, I'd really appreciate it if YouTubers and movie review sites were to back up their claims that a movie now needs to make 2.5 to 3 times the production budget to break even. Especially given the rise in costs of EVERYTHING during the Biden* Administration, I'm not going to argue that this isn't true, but somebody needs to bring some real receipts to the table proving this when it's been generally accepted for years that a movie had to double its production budget to break even. As I stated several times in these failure threads, I will not move the goalposts on this just to make the numbers look more in line than what I want to see, and I feel that this is happening more and more often as the year drags on with zero concrete evidence available to back up those claims.
It's far too easy to bastardize the facts when everyone is playing Telephone, and I will not be a part of that.
Here's a great example of that, and one that has gone on for nearly 4 decades.
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