Maybe Disney could learn a lesson here...
POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Monday, May 22, 2023 08:54
VIEWED: 4201
PAGE 4 of 5
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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It made nearly $4 Million more than it needed to this weekend to take 19th place. By next weekend it will take over yet another Disney animated property when it eclipses Beauty and the Beast.
I'll have to look more into the numbers later in the week, but my very early prediction for where it will sit on the All Time Domestic list by the end of next weekend is 17th place, beating out Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and poised to take over Star Wars: Rogue One (and The Dark Knight) shortly after that.
Once the numbers are in for Thursday night, SMB SHOULD have cracked $500 Million Domestic in 30 days before going into its 5th weekend. If it falls short of this, it won't be by much.
There's no doubt it will take 17th place after this weekend. The only question is by how much. The weekend drops for the movie have been 37%, 35% and 32%. If that keeps up, another 37% drop would clock in at somewhere in the area of another $25 to $26 Million this weekend, pulling in roughly $10 Million more than it needed.
I still think there's zero chance it pulls in more than $600 Million Domestic and threatens Incredibles 2 for the highest grossing animated film in the US box office, but at $525 Million it would only need to make another $18.5 Million to meet my prediction and become the 2nd highest animated film as well as the 14th highest Domestic release of all time.
It should be able to sleepwalk to that goal at this point.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Once the numbers are in for Thursday night, SMB SHOULD have cracked $500 Million Domestic in 30 days before going into its 5th weekend. If it falls short of this, it won't be by much.
It's just about $3k shy of needing $2 Million tonight to crack $500 Million going into the weekend. It's too hard to say if it will or wont based off of how it's trended so far. Some weeks it makes more on Thursday than it did on Wednesday and vice-versa. It will need to make roughly $13k more tonight than it did last night to make it there.
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I still think there's zero chance it pulls in more than $600 Million Domestic and threatens Incredibles 2 for the highest grossing animated film in the US box office...
Bruce's model now predicts SMB will make $597 Million before it leaves the theaters.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/254110830-2023-market-prediction-Mari
o-and-major-new-announcements-push-market-prediction-above-10-billion-for-the-year
That would be $11.5 Million shy of overtaking Incredibles 2.
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Yeah... It wasn't even close. I had a bad feeling for SMB hitting $500 Million on Thursday night after I saw the numbers for Evil Dead Rise and a few other movies. Pretty slow night for movies all around, including the Thursday night preview of Guardians 3 that only got $17.5 Million.
I'm not going to make any Guardians predictions just yet, but $17.5 Million was exactly what Antman Quantumania made in Thursday night previews when it first released, so make of that what you will.
SMB is at $499,527,705 going into the weekend. By tomorrow it will be ahead of Beauty and the Beast and by Sunday it will overtake Rise of Skywalker on the All Time Domestic list. No chance it's going to leap frog Rogue One for 16th place by the end of the weekend, but it probably will do so next week some time. If not, it will do so next weekend surely.
That will be 3 more bitch slaps to Disney this week. 
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Bruce predicts over $30 Million for SMB this weekend. If he's right, it should take Rogue One and The Dark Knight for 15th place by Tuesday or Wednesday night at the latest. Then it won't be long until it coasts to my prediction of 14th place all time, likely in the middle of next weekend.
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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Bruce predicts over $30 Million for SMB this weekend. If he's right, it should take Rogue One and The Dark Knight for 15th place by Tuesday or Wednesday night at the latest. Then it won't be long until it coasts to my prediction of 14th place all time, likely in the middle of next weekend.
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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.
$30 Million....? Not super likely.
Friday Previews: $4,200,000
That's a 56% drop from last Friday, and in order to get $30.3 Million like Bruce's model predicted it would need to drop only 26% for the weekend.
I'm going to guess $23 Million or less. Since it's a kid's movie it could still do better on Saturday and Sunday to make up for this Friday Night number, but if the Saturday/Sunday numbers hold to their pattern based off of previous Friday nights I wouldn't expect much more than $20 Million, actually.
Guardians numbers aren't out for last night yet, but I'm thinking that there might still be some gas in the tank for that franchise and it took away more ticket sales from SMB than Bruce's model predicted.
So, it didn't beat Beauty and the Beast last night and that was pushed back a day. It will still end up at 17th place all time domestic after Sunday night and beat out Beauty and The Last Jedi, but it's certainly not going to be taking 16th place until next weekend some time after Friday's number came in.
The end result will be an easy 14th place like my original prediction still, but it will take just a little bit longer to get there. At this point I think there's zero hope it can cross $600 Million and be the top animated film of all time in the US, but I never really had any belief that it was going to accomplish that feat anyhow.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
$30 Million....? Not super likely.
Friday Previews: $4,200,000
That's a 56% drop from last Friday, and in order to get $30.3 Million like Bruce's model predicted it would need to drop only 26% for the weekend.
I'm going to guess $23 Million or less. Since it's a kid's movie it could still do better on Saturday and Sunday to make up for this Friday Night number, but if the Saturday/Sunday numbers hold to their pattern based off of previous Friday nights I wouldn't expect much more than $20 Million, actually.
Actual: $18,551,620 (A -55% drop from last weekend)
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So, it didn't beat Beauty and the Beast last night and that was pushed back a day. It will still end up at 17th place all time domestic after Sunday night and beat out Beauty and The Last Jedi, but it's certainly not going to be taking 16th place until next weekend some time after Friday's number came in.
I knew there was no way it was going to make Bruce's prediction, but with an even lower take this weekend that I expected, it still easily took 17th place, but it now has to make $15.5 Million to take 16th place. I still think that it can do this by the end of next weekend, but that all depends on how much it drops this week from last week. If we have another 55% drop off of last week it will come up short and it won't happen until sometime during the week the following weekend.
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The end result will be an easy 14th place like my original prediction still, but it will take just a little bit longer to get there. At this point I think there's zero hope it can cross $600 Million and be the top animated film of all time in the US, but I never really had any belief that it was going to accomplish that feat anyhow.
$25.5 Million is still a guaranty before SMB leaves the theaters and it will make my original prediction of 14th place. If I hadn't already said that the chance that it beats Incredibles 2 for 13th place and the highest grossing animated film in the US was zero before, I'd be saying it now for sure.
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I doubt very much that SMB is going to get the $7.8 Million that it would need to take 16th place from Rogue One at the end of Sunday after its $2.9 Million Friday projection (-31%).
Bruce's model once again highly overstated how well the movie would do for the 2nd weekend in a row, it would appear. He's got it making $15.5 million by Sunday night, which would only be a 16% drop from last weekend. Maybe with Mother's Day on Sunday this is a possibility, but I doubt it.
But unlike last weekend, the larger than expected drop wasn't due to Guardians of the Galaxy V3. That movie too did not do well on Friday, dropping 67% from the previous Friday. Those are Antman numbers. If those numbers don't pick up this weekend, Disney has a bigger MCU problem than anybody thought.
Maybe summer is finally in the air and people just skipped going to the theater on Friday night and decided to wait until Fast X comes out.
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If the studio's projection of $13 Million for the weekend is par or low, SMB leapfrogged over Rogue One and The Dark Knight for 15th place all time Domestic . Probably not a ton of gas in the Mario Kart tank, but it will easily get to 14th place like I originally predicted it would.
If the studio projections for Guardians are right, they more than made up for Friday's terrible number and only fell around 50% in their second weekend, which would make it only the third lowest 2nd weekend drop in MCU history.
Nobody should read too much into that since Guardians was popular enough a franchise that it SHOULD have had results like this despite how poorly the MCU in general has been doing otherwise. But the heads at Disney surely have to be breathing huge sighs of relief right now. If Guardians failed, the MCU was officially dead.
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Studio Projections were a tad high, but still enough to take 15th place on Sunday.
$8.1 Million to get my prediction 14th place will be a cakewalk. No way in hell it's going to make another $73 Million to take 13th place and the top spot for an animated film.
Disney employees should be forced to watch Incredibles 2 on repeat until they figure out why it made so much money and is the only animated film they've ever released to outsell SMB. The ones who can't figure it out and/or don't want to admit why it succeeded where they constantly fail should be fired immediately.
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At the end of the day, Disney can do all the celebrating it wants to that a Guardian's of the Galaxy flick that should never have been a failure is meeting lowered expectations, but I just noticed that it's doing quite a bit less business than the Super Mario movie did at the same time.
Day 12 and it made $226,339,792 so far domestic. After Day 12, SMB already made $353,170,890. Guardians' production budget was also 2.5 times higher at $250 Million vs. SMB's $100 Million.
At $515 Million it's already broke even after marketing and theater costs, but it will make quite a bit less money than SMB did and it had to make about $300 Million more than SMB had to make before they started making cash for their investors.
Funny that I haven't seen anybody report those facts yet. Not even the YouTubers that usually cover these things.
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