Four More Avatar Movies announced on April 14, 2016
POSTED BY: second
UPDATED: Friday, May 26, 2023 20:24
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PAGE 7 of 16
The weekend projections for the top three just seem silly after Friday night's projections. Especially considering the $50k downgrade that A2 got late in the night yesterday.
80 for Brady (a film directed SQUARELY at senior citizens) got double what A2 did on Friday night, but somehow it only beats A2 by $1.7M for the weekend and nearly matches it on Sunday? Yeah... Probably not.
They're projecting $10.8 Million now for A2 for the weekend, which means that The-Numbers was off by a lot (again), although I missed the mark by just about as much the other way if that's the actual numbers.
I don't think it will be, and that number should actually fall this time when the actual numbers roll in.
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Somehow it went up after the projections. Shenanigans or not, it still lost more ground to Maverick this weekend.
A2: $11,335,304 ; Maverick: $12,306,381
Loss: $971,077
A2's current lead is now: $18,686,797 (Day 52)
A2's lead after weekend 4 was $50,805,745 (Day 24)
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Avatar 2 will post it's first sub-Million domestic day Monday (Day 53)... Something that took Maverick 76 days to do.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Avatar 2 will post it's first sub-Million domestic day Monday (Day 53)... Something that took Maverick 76 days to do.
Day 53: $718,417
It took Maverick 90 days to post a day that low.
It took in $217 per theater; something that took Maverick 95 days to fall below.
It's done. Zero chance that A2 can beat Maverick in the states.
Now the only question left is how many days left until it gets booted out of theaters because of the overhead.
Current A2 lead over Maverick on day 53 is down to $17,549,526.
Current amount A2 would have to make to beat Maverick is $81,058,658.
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Avatar 2 made $965,824 on Cheap Ticket Tuesday (Day 54).
The first time Maverick made under a million on Cheap Ticket Tuesday was Day 89.
A2's theater count cut down to 3,065, which is a mistake. Should be 2,500 or less right now. I'll wait until next Friday to throw out my I Told You So's on that one.
Once Thursday's A2 numbers are in, its lead over Maverick going into Weekend 9 will be just around $14.5 Million.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Once Thursday's A2 numbers are in, its lead over Maverick going into Weekend 9 will be just around $14.5 Million.
$14,469,844
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A2's Friday projection: $1,691,000
It's got a lot of ground to make up if it's going to match The Numbers' model prediction of $9,220,000. Bruce did say though that he thought the model was high and it will more likely be $8,500,000 for Weekend 9. Personally, I'm betting on $7,750,000 for the weekend.
A2 is getting a bit of a break that the new Magic Mike movie is being released in only 1,500 theaters over some sort of backlash or something I couldn't give two shits about and won't bother looking into.
It will be the last weekend that A2 has a chance to make any real money with the new Marvel movie that nobody should still care about in 2023 comes out next weekend.
Maverick made $2,788,380 on day 57, which means that unless the model is low, it's lost another 1,097,380 in a single day, putting A2's current lead after day 57 down to $13,372,464.
A2 is about to flatline on the DBO graph.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
A2's Friday projection: $1,691,000
It's got a lot of ground to make up if it's going to match The Numbers' model prediction of $9,220,000. Bruce did say though that he thought the model was high and it will more likely be $8,500,000 for Weekend 9. Personally, I'm betting on $7,750,000 for the weekend.
$6,884,000 is the projected total for Weekend 9. That's almost a million lower than my prediction was. I think it's going to tack some money back on once the final numbers come in though since that is what's happened every single weekend since A2 came out.
Maverick's Weekend 9 total was $10,270,995.
Maverick's first Sub-$2 Million weekend day was Day 71. It's first weekend day as low as A2's Sunday (Day 59: $1,376,000) wasn't until Friday (Day 92: $1,354,937).
Day 92 was also Maverick's first sub-$500 per theater on a weekend day, while A2 just had that on Sunday (Day 59: $449)
A2's lead over Maverick at Day 59 is now down to only $11,082,849. It may be as high as $11.5 Million once the real numbers roll in tomorrow.
The above numbers will change a bit when the real numbers come in. I probably won't bother changing them since it's all going to be close and nothing stated above should change.
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Quote:
A2's lead over Maverick at Day 59 is now down to only $11,082,849. It may be as high as $11.5 Million once the real numbers roll in tomorrow.
A2's lead after the real numbers came in for Weekend 9 was $11,416,744.
A2 had a hell of a Cheap Ticket Tuesday on Valentine's Day. It's the first day that it's beat Maverick on the same day (Day 61) in ages. In context, Day 60 (Monday) saw Maverick making over 1 Million more than A2 did on the same day, but A2 eeked out about $66k more than Maverick did on Tuesday.
A2's lead over Maverick is now down to $10,670,102 after Valentine's Day.
I still don't know why Bruce had lowered his prediction for A2's final take all the way down to only $660 Million domestically a week or two back. I said at the time I thought that was way too low.
I think theater counts are really going to drop soon and the new Marvel drek comes out this weekend, but it's already at $649+ Million. Even though it won't come close to touching Maverick's $718+ Million, it will beat $660 Million by quite a bit, IMO.
Until we have more info after this weekend, I'm going to split the difference and call it $689 Million for A2's final domestic take. But really that depends on how quickly the Theater Owners want to get it out of their theaters. If it doesn't come close to Maverick's 203 days in the theaters, it probably isn't going to make another $40 Million, so the high cost of showing it coupled with the high ticket prices might really hurt it on the back end, like I predicted quite a while ago.
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Day 62: $689,282
A2 takes 4th place and is 3rd behind "Winnie-The-Pooh: Blood and Honey".
A2's lead over Maverick on day 62: $9,967,079
My guess right now is that Maverick takes the lead on Day 74.
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