Four More Avatar Movies announced on April 14, 2016
POSTED BY: second
UPDATED: Friday, May 26, 2023 20:24
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January 21st: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $770 Million]
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The-Numbers shaved its predictions for Avatar 2 domestically from $770 Million to $765 Million domestically, but I don't think it will even be close to that in the end.
January 23rd: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $765 Million]
Quote:Quote:
While it’s topping the chart again, The Way of Water is continuing to lose steam in domestic markets. It’ll miss our model’s prediction by 28%, and the predicted final total for the domestic market declines from $765 million going into the weekend to $748 million today.
Well, well... $748 Million, huh?
The-Number's second lowered Domestic Projection is EXACTLY what I said Avatar 2 would make in the end if it managed to maintain its $40 Million dollar lead it had after Thursday night.
However...
You'd better go lower.
January 26th: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]
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I'm also anticipating another drop in the The-Numbers' prediction for Avatar 2's domestic take when the weekend predictions come out tomorrow.
Is tomorrow the day they predict that Avatar 2 will make less than Maverick did domestically, or will we have to wait another week for that prediction?
January 27th (early): [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]
Quote:
Let's see how low The-Numbers drops the Domestic prediction for Avatar 2 the third week in a row. If they're claiming more than $725 Million at this point, they're suffering from wishful thinking. If they still think it will make over $742 they're insane and need to fix their model.
January 27th (late): [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]
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Also, they made no mention of changing their prediction for the final take. It probably makes sense that they didn't with a weekend prediction that high.
Wow...
Despite just a small dip in The-Number's Weekend 7 prediction (3% more of a loss than they expected, vs 12% better than I'd thought it would have done), it appears that they've savagely downgraded Avatar's final domestic take in their model, dropping it far below what I even would have predicted at this point.
$665 Million is what they think it will end up with now, which is $53+ Million shy of Maverick's domestic total.
Maybe Bruce has been looking at my thread.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253500830-2023-market-forecast-Avatar
-helps-boost-our-2023-prediction-to-8-8-billion
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Avatar 2's Monday (Day 46): $1,174,887; Maverick's $2,041,252... And Maverick was already in 3rd place in the Domestic Box Office by this time.
It took Maverick 74 days to get that low.
Maverick made $8,549,925 Monday through Thursday in Week 7. Avatar 2 is going to make less than $5 Million this week.
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Avatar's cheap seat Tuesday (Day 47) was $1,512,270.
It was Day 68 when Maverick's cheap seat Tuesday was that low.
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Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).
Maverick's first sub $300 per theater day was a Monday, Day 82.
Tomorrow it finally gets some competition and will be moved to position 2.
At some point I'm going to sit down and compare countries where they were both released internationally too. It's a lot more than just the fact that China allowed Avatar 2 and will account for around $250k by the end of the run. The list of countries on the International tabs at the-numbers is twice as long for Avatar 2 than it was for Maverick.
Even more interesting is that Avatar 2 made less than 1/3rd what Maverick did so far in Japan, and it's still trailing what Maverick made in the UK by $15k and it's still doing far better internationally just because of the sheer number of countries that allowed A2 to play when they banned Maverick from being shown.
A2 and James get a big Asterisk next to this one.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).
Nope. It went down, but only to 3,310 theaters.
I won't tell them how to do their business, but I think that's a mistake. They may make a few extra bucks off of it, but it certainly won't do their per theater average any favors next week.
It will be interesting to see what the-numbers' prediction for the weekend will be with some competition when the article comes out tomorrow.
Without spending any real time on it, I'll predict $9 Million for Weekend 8, and if that's the case it will cede another $3.3 Million from its current lead of $22,693,557.
Maybe it gets lucky and makes $11 Million this weekend. Who knows? Are people going to choose to see a M Knight movie about the apocalypse and/or a movie about 4 women in their 80's I didn't even know were still alive fawning over Tom Brady hard enough that Avatar really gets its ass kicked this weekend?
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).
Nope. It's Thursday was worse. $1,005,502, which means $279 per theater.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (January 31st):
Avatar 2's Monday (Day 46): $1,174,887; Maverick's $2,041,252... And Maverick was already in 3rd place in the Domestic Box Office by this time.
It took Maverick 74 days to get that low.
Maverick made $8,549,925 Monday through Thursday in Week 7. Avatar 2 is going to make less than $5 Million this week.
Avatar's total for Week 7 (Mon-Thurs): $4,771,139
A2's lead on Maverick just shrunk by another $3,778,786, and now sits at $19,657,874 going into weekend 8.
Online sites that are not the-numbers have predicted an $11 Million Weekend 8 for A2. That was my high end prediction, with $9M being my low end prediction.
So is it going to lose another $1.3M to Maverick this weekend, or $3.3M?
Let's see what the-numbers has to say tonight.
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The-Numbers is going to go out on a limb and predict $13.1 Million for the weekend; higher than any other site predicted. It beats Maverick's Weekend 8 but $800,000 if that happens.
I seriously doubt it. It would have to best Maverick's 21% dip that weekend and have only an 18% dip. The only thing that Avatar has been beating Maverick at in the states has been seeing poor numbers in every category weeks before Maverick did.
The $13.1 prediction puzzles me. Bruce just put out an article recently lowering his prediction for Avatar 2 all the way down to only $660 Million Domestically, but if he still believes that A2 is going to be pulling in $13M on weekend 8 and it isn't going to start quickly going down the tubes, it will end up with a lot more than that by the end of its run, considering it's already at $625M +.
I'm going to stick to my guns and say $9M for the weekend, although an $11M weekend is still well within the realm of possibility if the two new flicks under-perform.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The-Numbers is going to go out on a limb and predict $13.1 Million for the weekend; higher than any other site predicted. It beats Maverick's Weekend 8 but $800,000 if that happens.
I seriously doubt it. It would have to best Maverick's 21% dip that weekend and have only an 18% dip. The only thing that Avatar has been beating Maverick at in the states has been seeing poor numbers in every category weeks before Maverick did.
The $13.1 prediction puzzles me. Bruce just put out an article recently lowering his prediction for Avatar 2 all the way down to only $660 Million Domestically, but if he still believes that A2 is going to be pulling in $13M on weekend 8 and it isn't going to start quickly going down the tubes, it will end up with a lot more than that by the end of its run, considering it's already at $625M +.
I'm going to stick to my guns and say $9M for the weekend, although an $11M weekend is still well within the realm of possibility if the two new flicks under-perform.
Friday's projection for Avatar 2: $2,400,000 (A 34% drop from the week before)
Maverick made $3,468,617 on the same day (Friday, Day 50)
Unless that projection is really low, there's zero chance now it will do as well as The-Numbers predicted, and very little chance that it could even get the $11M the other websites were predicting. I'm sticking with my $9M prediction for the weekend, although it could be $9.5 to $10 Million.
This bumps A2 down to 3rd place for Friday, pulling in less than half than 2nd place 80 For Brady did, and with the high theater count it will be penalized again with it's first weekend day that is sub-$1000 per theater by quite a bit at only $725 per theater. Maverick didn't see a weekend day that low until Friday (Day 71).
At some point one would imagine the theater chains aren't going to deem it worthwhile to keep this in theaters because of the cost of overhead and I think the time it spends in theaters is going to be far less than Maverick's 203 days.
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Welcome to the party, Forbes. Better late than never:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2023/02/04/avatar-sequel-wont-
sink-titanic-as-3rd-highest-grossing-film/
Quote:
As of Friday morning, Avatar: The Way of Water needed about $64 million to top Titanic. This weekend, I expect The Way of Water t0 sail toward $8-10 million stateside and around $30+/- million internationally, so conservatively call it $35-40 million, cutting the distance between Avatar 2 and Titanic to somewhere between $20-30 million.
I mean... I called that days before you did, and I don't get paid to do this.
And poor, clueless screen rant...
https://screenrant.com/avatar-way-of-water-box-office-third-place-deta
ils/
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While it was always possible it would lose the No. 1 spot this weekend, it wasn't a sure thing that it would drop until the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania on February 17, so dropping two slots at once is something of a surprise.
A surprise to you. Yes.
Quote:
Avatar: The Way of Water only took in around $10 million domestic this weekend, which is about half of what the original film made on the same weekend, when it slipped to No. 2. This would seem to indicate that the film's rapid rise up the charts has hit the brakes. While it will likely continue to rack in huge numbers in international markets until Ant-Man 3 premieres, it's looking incredibly unlikely that the Avatar sequel will even crack the Top 5 domestic releases of all time.
Awwwwwwww...
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However, Avatar: The Way of Water is almost certain to topple Titanic as the third highest-grossing film of all time in the worldwide market. It remains to be seen how the film will perform overseas over the next two weeks. However, that seems to be its major window to close the gap between its current place and the all-time No. 1 slot, which is still looking like a much loftier goal than it did a couple of weeks ago.
It was never going to happen. If anybody working at your outfit knew how to math and compare trending graphs, you would have known that a long time ago like I did.
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They just dropped Avatar's Friday projection by $50k. It came damn close to losing 3rd place to a season finale of some show called The Chosen that was being shown in 1,300 less theaters.
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