Four More Avatar Movies announced on April 14, 2016
POSTED BY: second
UPDATED: Friday, May 26, 2023 20:24
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PAGE 5 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Day 36, Friday - $4,654,000 for Avatar 2; 7,186,162 for Maverick
Day 37, Saturday - $9,322,000 for Avatar 2; $9,767,396 for Maverick
Day 38, Sunday - $5,709,000 for Avatar 2; $8,933,634 for Maverick
That's $19,685,000 for Avatar 2 and $25,887,192 for Maverick on the same Friday/Saturday/Sunday.
Avatar 2's lead over Maverick just lost $6,202,192 on its 6th weekend.
The lead is now down to only $33,598,794 after day 38.
Projections for the weekend were slightly lower than the actual numbers.
Actual Numbers:
Day 36, Friday - $4,671,161 for Avatar 2; 7,186,162 for Maverick
Day 37, Saturday - $9,454,007 for Avatar 2; $9,767,396 for Maverick
Day 38, Sunday - $6,007,938 for Avatar 2; $8,933,634 for Maverick
That's $20,133,106 for Avatar 2 and $25,887,192 for Maverick on the same Friday/Saturday/Sunday.
Avatar 2's lead over Maverick just lost $5,754,086 on its 6th weekend.
The lead is now down to only $34,046,900 after day 38.
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And it won't be another 11 days until Maverick saw a sub $2 Million week day, while Avatar's Wednesday and Thursday nights last week were both sub $2 Million already.
And Avatar 2's 39th day (Monday) was $1,580,745, vs Maverick's $6,371,672, shrinking the lead another $4,790,927 further down to $29,255,973. (Unlike last Monday's MLK boon to Avatar 2, Maverick benefited from 4th of July on day 39).
Quote:
Maverick pulled in $17,543,554 on the next Monday through Thursday.
My prediction for Avatar on the same Monday through Thursday will be $8.5 Million (and I will call this a GENEROUS prediction, because I REALLY want to call it $6.5 Million, but I don't want egg on my face and it's hard to gauge because of MLK last Monday), and if I'm right, that's another $9 Million deficit going into the 7th weekend, leaving Avatar 2 with only a $24.6 Million lead on Maverick before a 7th weekend where Maverick was just a few million shy of what Avatar 2 made in its 6th weekend.
Maverick had a LOT of longevity at this point in the run. Will Avatar 2?
Monday's $1,580,745 for Avatar 2 was $4.8 Million less than Maverick got on day 39 (Monday; Week 6), $450k less than Maverick got on day 46 (Monday; Week 7), ($300k less than Maverick got on day 53 (Monday; Week 8), and just $77k more than Maverick got on day 60 (Monday; Week 9).
Without counting cheap seat Tuesday, we're looking at Avatar 2 pulling in only around $4.8 Million max for Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. It will get more today, but how much is the question. My guess is that it will land closer to the $6.5 Million prediction I wanted to make than the $8.5 Million prediction I ultimately made for the week.
In any event, whatever it pulls in through Thursday will wipe out the $448,106 it pulled in above the studio projections for the weekend and it will lose slightly more going into weekend 7 than I estimated in the last post.
I'm now going to say that Avatar 2's lead over Maverick after Thursday (Day 42) will be below $24 Million.
Now... If Avatar can manage to keep at these prematurely low weekly levels for a LONG time, it could possibly manage to hold its ground on Maverick. Almost any other flick wouldn't, but because of the spectacle and the high ticket prices on this one, it may manage to fend off Maverick since the following Thursday shows Maverick's first sub-$2 Million day, and most week days afterward for Maverick were sub-$2 Million up until Day 76 where it started dipping sub-$1 Million.
Also, it's a coin-flip whether or not Avatar 2 ends up with a better Weekend 7 than Maverick had. My guess for Avatar 2's 7th weekend is $13.5 Million which would leave it about $1.5 shy of winning the weekend, but no new releases that anybody cares about are set to come out this weekend.
However, for Weekend 8 you've got "Knock at the Cabin" releasing that has a lot of buzz around it, with "Magic Mike
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The evidence in a graph:
Like I said a while back, Avatar 2 is going to need to pull in some big weekends or hang on to just under sub-$2 Million weekdays for weeks now to keep its lead over Maverick until the end.
Yesterday's loss for Avatar 2 wasn't a good example because, as stated before, that Monday was 4th of July for Maverick. But today's projection just came in at $2 Million for Avatar 2, and Maverick pulled in way more than double that figure on Day 40 at $4,461,739 for cheap ticket Tuesday.
They have been projecting low for Avatar 2, so that might end up being as much as $2.2 Million when we get the figure tomorrow. We could probably see as high as $7.5 Million for Avatar from Monday through Thursday, but that would still bring Avatar 2's lead down to $24 Million or just below unless it's got a bigger than expected Wednesday and Thursday.
But you can see from the trajectory of the curve that Avatar 2 has lost its steam and would flatline much earlier than Maverick did if that behavior persists.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yesterday's loss for Avatar 2 wasn't a good example because, as stated before, that Monday was 4th of July for Maverick. But today's projection just came in at $2 Million for Avatar 2, and Maverick pulled in way more than double that figure on Day 40 at $4,461,739 for cheap ticket Tuesday.
They have been projecting low for Avatar 2, so that might end up being as much as $2.2 Million when we get the figure tomorrow. We could probably see as high as $7.5 Million for Avatar from Monday through Thursday, but that would still bring Avatar 2's lead down to $24 Million or just below unless it's got a bigger than expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Ooooph...
Projection was extremely close for cheap seat Tuesday. $2,008,398 exact... Not the possible $2.2 Million I thought it might be.
More often than not, movies typically have a weaker Wednesday and Thursday than the do a Monday, and that includes the history of A2. Very good chance that my $6.5 Million prediction I was too reluctant to call will be the reality for the week instead of the $8.5 Million I ultimately called.
We're looking at a good possibility of Avatar 2 only holding a $22.5 Million lead on Maverick going into the 7th weekend now, and the lead it held over Maverick being divided by half in a 2 week time period.
Another interesting thing to note is that Maverick didn't earn less than $1,000 per theater until Day 41 (or what would be TODAY for Avatar 2). Avatar 2, on the other hand, has already had 8 days where it made less than $1k per theater, and 3 of those days it made less than $500 per theater. This is not including today, which would make that 9 days.
I believe the theater chains will recognize this fact and I expect the announcement Thursday the theater count will drop a considerable amount for the 7th weekend. Maybe that prediction is a week early with no new blockbusters coming out this weekend, but if they prolong that choice another week I think it's going to make that daily per-theater number suffer and look pretty bad.
My guess is that they'll drop it to around 3,600 theaters from 3,790 this weekend, and by next weekend it won't be playing in more than 3,200 theaters.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Projection was extremely close for cheap seat Tuesday. $2,008,398 exact... Not the possible $2.2 Million I thought it might be.
More often than not, movies typically have a weaker Wednesday and Thursday than the do a Monday, and that includes the history of A2. Very good chance that my $6.5 Million prediction I was too reluctant to call will be the reality for the week instead of the $8.5 Million I ultimately called.
Avatar 2 only made $1,436,130 on Wednesday domestically. That's below even my low prediction.
Monday: $1,580,745
Tuesday: $2,008,398
Wednesday: $1,436,130
That's only $5,025,273 so far for the week. One more day to go. It's a coin flip that it didn't even meet my low $6.5 Million prediction. I should have gone with my gut.
Avatar 2 only pulled in $379 per theater on average yesterday (Day 41). It took Maverick 76 days to get that low.
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We're looking at a good possibility of Avatar 2 only holding a $22.5 Million lead on Maverick going into the 7th weekend now, and the lead it held over Maverick being divided by half in a 2 week time period
Avatar 2's current lead after Day 41 is down to $24,431,842.
My math must have been a little fuzzy there. Even with the lower numbers than I expected, A2's lead won't be under $22.5 Million after tonight. But there's almost zero chance that it will be more than $23 Million going into the weekend.
The new theater counts for the weekend aren't out yet, but should be up within the next few hours. Let's see if my drop to 3,600 theaters was high or low.
I'm also anticipating another drop in the The-Numbers' prediction for Avatar 2's domestic take when the weekend predictions come out tomorrow.
Is tomorrow the day they predict that Avatar 2 will make less than Maverick did domestically, or will we have to wait another week for that prediction?
Maybe they play it safe for now and drop it to the $725 Million that I suggested they drop it to earlier this week.
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Still no word on theater counts, which is odd this late on a Thursday night. Maybe they took the day off?
I did just look at local ticket prices and there is a sizable difference between Avatar 2 and other movies around me. If you want to see the late showing of Puss n Boots or M3GAN, it will cost you $15.33 with tax. If you want to see Avatar 2's last showing it will cost you $19.81. These are adult prices. It would be $11.97 and $16.45 for children.
I wonder what the average would be across the nation.
I found this reddit and it seems to be all over the map.
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/zhcppe/taking_a_look_at_av
atar_2_ticket_prices/
But then again, I'm sure regular movies are too. I can go see a new movie down by my brother's for $5.00 even with the tax included.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (Wednesday Evening):
My guess is that they'll drop it to around 3,600 theaters from 3,790 this weekend, and by next weekend it won't be playing in more than 3,200 theaters.
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253470830-Theater-counts-A-Man-Called
-Otto-holds-on-as-widest-release-as-two-new-films-debut
3,600. Exactly.
Maybe I SHOULD start gambling?
I kid. I kid.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (Monday the 23rd):
Maverick pulled in $17,543,554 on the next Monday through Thursday.
My prediction for Avatar on the same Monday through Thursday will be $8.5 Million (and I will call this a GENEROUS prediction, because I REALLY want to call it $6.5 Million, but I don't want egg on my face and it's hard to gauge because of MLK last Monday), and if I'm right, that's another $9 Million deficit going into the 7th weekend, leaving Avatar 2 with only a $24.6 Million lead on Maverick before a 7th weekend where Maverick was just a few million shy of what Avatar 2 made in its 6th weekend.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
More often than not, movies typically have a weaker Wednesday and Thursday than the do a Monday, and that includes the history of A2. Very good chance that my $6.5 Million prediction I was too reluctant to call will be the reality for the week instead of the $8.5 Million I ultimately called.
Monday: $1,580,745
Tuesday: $2,008,398
Wednesday: $1,436,130
THURSDAY: $1,446,039
Mon-Thurs take: $6,471,312
I should trust my gut more.
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK (Thursday, Jan 26th):
My math must have been a little fuzzy there. Even with the lower numbers than I expected, A2's lead won't be under $22.5 Million after tonight. But there's almost zero chance that it will be more than $23 Million going into the weekend.
Total Avatar 2 advantage over Maverick going into weekend 7 is now: $22,974,658
Yup. I should trust my gut more often.
Let's see how low The-Numbers drops the Domestic prediction for Avatar 2 the third week in a row. If they're claiming more than $725 Million at this point, they're suffering from wishful thinking. If they still think it will make over $742 they're insane and need to fix their model.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Also, it's a coin-flip whether or not Avatar 2 ends up with a better Weekend 7 than Maverick had. My guess for Avatar 2's 7th weekend is $13.5 Million which would leave it about $1.5 shy of winning the weekend, but no new releases that anybody cares about are set to come out this weekend.
Are Oscar nominations even a thing that people care about anymore?
The-Numbers seems to think so. They're predicting only an 18% drop in Avatar 2's take in the 7th weekend for $16.6 Million. My prediction would be a 33 % drop.
Also, they made no mention of changing their prediction for the final take. It probably makes sense that they didn't with a weekend prediction that high.
For reference, Maverick lost 40% from Weekend 6 to Weekend 7, despite it having a full three more weeks (Mon-Thurs) of better returns than Avatar 2 had for Week 6.
Let's see what happens... shall we?
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It's almost impossible to tell what a weekend would look like after only Friday night projections. Not only because the total weekend projections have been lower than actual numbers for Avatar 2 so far, but because both A2 and Maverick never really show any consistency between Friday/Saturday/Sunday from week to week. Also, A2 has benefited from a few holiday weekends so far that really skew the stats all over the place.
That being said, Friday's projetion for A2 is $3,570,000 (which is $936,225 shy of Maverick's $4506225 on the same day).
If we go by last week's A2 showing, Saturday will be a 102% increase on Friday and be $7,282,800, and Sunday will drop 36% from Saturday and will be $4,660,992, for a total weekend take of $15,513,792.
This is roughly $2M above my prediction and $1.1M below The-Number's prediction. It's almost entirely a meaningless number though because it's only based off of the previous weekend. The previous weekend to that ultimately ended up quite similar, but the two weekends before it had much lower percentage hikes and higher percentage drops between days.
If this were to be the number, it would be damn close to Maverick's 7th weekend and just $7,262 shy of Maverick's $15,506,530.
That would seem to be good news for Avatar 2 in this race, but it really isn't. A2 needs to have stellar weekend showings to make up for what it will lose week to week on Monday-Thursday. Maverick will show its first sub-$2 Million day on Thursday of this week, but the next three weeks for Maverick all made more money than A2 did last week. (Mon-Thurs).
So if A2 can't make up ground on the weekends going forward, it's now a game of attrition.
And I suspect that while it was a great boon for Avatar 2 to have such high ticket prices in the beginning, it's going to be a detriment on the back end. Not only that, but large scale theaters with IMAX screens and 3D cost more to operate and are likely to be shutdown to this movie sometime soon as the per-screen average continues to fall... much quicker than it did for Maverick.
Ex: Even though they bumped A2 down to 3,600 theaters this week, A2 still couldn't manage to pull in over $1k per theater with a number of $992. Maverick on the same day was being shown in 87 less theaters and managed to pull in $1,283 per theater (With regular ticket prices and without all the high-tech stuff).
It would still be another two weeks on Friday that Maverick saw it's first sub-$1k per theater day on a weekend. Friday will also be Avatar 2's 11th sub-$1k per theater day in general, and the 5th straight one in a row, while at this point in time Maverick had only two, which were the Wednesday and Thursday just prior to last night.
And let's be frank. Avatar 2 has had ZERO competition up to this point. And that was by design. Nobody was willing to throw their blockbuster in the ring with the king. It won't be until 8 weeks in that A2 gets any real competition, and by now it's fledgling.
Even though Knock at the Cabin is an M Knight Shamalyan flick, it shouldn't have any problems knocking A2 to 2nd place next weekend.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Also, it's a coin-flip whether or not Avatar 2 ends up with a better Weekend 7 than Maverick had. My guess for Avatar 2's 7th weekend is $13.5 Million which would leave it about $1.5 shy of winning the weekend, but no new releases that anybody cares about are set to come out this weekend.
Are Oscar nominations even a thing that people care about anymore?
The-Numbers seems to think so. They're predicting only an 18% drop in Avatar 2's take in the 7th weekend for $16.6 Million. My prediction would be a 33 % drop.
I didn't want to post again with only the weekend projection of $15,660,000 out since Saturday. Once again, the actual number was higher than projected, but not by too much this time.
Avatar 2's 7th Weekend Total: $15,968,532. A 21% drop from Weekend 6. This time The-Numbers came a lot closer than I did.
This figure now brings Avatar 2's lead over Maverick after day 45 to $23,436,660, which brings it back over the $23M hump from Thursday night's final lead of $22,974,658. This is a $462,002 better weekend showing for Avatar 2 on Weekend 7 after a total loss of $11,072,242 the preceding Monday through Thursday during Week 6.
The good news for A2 is that Maverick's weekday showings fall down to earth after Week 6, although it won't be another month until they're as bad as Avatar 2's Week 6 was.
In other bad news for A2, it will finally have a movie people want to see come out and knock it out of 1st place for Weekend 8 on Friday.
So now, it's a game of attrition.
Can A2 hold the lead?
Day 45
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