China
POSTED BY: THG
UPDATED: Friday, September 4, 2026 03:35
VIEWED: 34683
PAGE 21 of 53
Yeah, but from what I gather he's not wrong about China's economy doing a nose dive.
If anything here and in Europe were stable I wouldn't be as concerned about that as I am right now.
It might be a long winter... or years.
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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Quote:Those YT videos took so long to load I gave up on them. I hope to get back to them later, when they load faster.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yeah, but from what I gather he's not wrong about China's economy doing a nose dive.
If anything here and in Europe were stable I wouldn't be as concerned about that as I am right now.
It might be a long winter... or years.
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
But FWiW ... who cares about the Chinese economy, or their population bust?
The Chinese did a number of stupid things with their economy that won't affect us negatively when it bites them in the ass. I have no respect for their "socialism with Chinese characteristics" or whatever the fuck they call it.
They made a deal with the devil. Two devils, in fact. Three, if I think about it.
Their firsr devil was creating prosperity in return for authoritarianism. "The clever leader fills the people's bellies while emptying their minds" according to an old Chinese proverb. I think this goes back to Tienanmen, when the leadership realized that they needed to create jobs and boost living standards in order to subvert revolt. Also, they needed to redirect people's minds towards getting rich, undermining the social order.
The second devil was deciding on the easy way out (something the Chinese have done for 30 years): They thought they could develop the Japanese/ South Korean way: Start by selling cheap plastic junk to western markets and climb up the value ladder, encourge western investments. The problems with that is that it warps their economy around exporting to western markets, and doesn't develop internal markets. When the American market went bust in 2008 they realized the error of their ways and tried to integrate into the EU market instead. Also, they're trying to utilize their productive capacity in their make-work project called the Belt and Road. So now they have a boatload of depreciating foreign reserves, and production geared towards markets that don't exist.
I guess their third devil is financialism. They tried to stimulate their internal market by loosening money supply. but all that did was create a class of ultra-wealthy speculators.
How does that affecr us? We depend on them for basics like raw industrial chemicals and pharma and steel. The rest of the crap we could do without for a while. But if they're desperate for a market they might drop their prices. The only thing we have to worry about is whether they will continue to accept the dollar.
For theur sake, I hope the Chinese eventually sort out their economy.
For our sake I hope we sort out ours.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Hey... In my mind, China is the real threat. Not Russia. I'm no fan of China.
Here's one thing that China is more than capable of that Russia is not...
How about we tank our own economy by pretending that it's already tanked (and sacrificing the lives and livelihood of a majority of our citizens while we're at it) just to financially take down America and the rest of the Western world when they're at their weakest point they've ever been?
I don't even want to sift through videos to find the ones that explain why China's collapse is going to hurt the rest of the world because I don't want to go down that blackpill road today, but to quote the GWB Administration, they're too big to fail. (Which is OUR fault).
... And they've also got a ton of blackmail info on Tik Tok users... Particularly Generation Zed. How many things do you think they've uploaded collectively as kids and teenagers (attached to ALL of their personal information on their phones) that they might do literally anything to keep from being put out there about them when they're adults?
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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Quote:China can only hurt us by failing to export critical commodities and materials. Whatever happens to their stock markets and banks and real estate speculators doesn't, insofar as I know, affect their industrial output bc half of their industries and ALL of their critical industries are state-owned enterprises (SOEs), an they just chunk out whatever they're told to chunk out.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Hey... In my mind, China is the real threat. Not Russia. I'm no fan of China.
Here's one thing that China is more than capable of that Russia is not...
How about we tank our own economy by pretending that it's already tanked (and sacrificing the lives and livelihood of a majority of our citizens while we're at it) just to financially take down America and the rest of the Western world when they're at their weakest point they've ever been?
I don't even want to sift through videos to find the ones that explain why China's collapse is going to hurt the rest of the world because I don't want to go down that blackpill road today, but to quote the GWB Administration, they're too big to fail. (Which is OUR fault).
... And they've also got a ton of blackmail info on Tik Tok users... Particularly Generation Zed. How many things do you think they've uploaded collectively as kids and teenagers (attached to ALL of their personal information on their phones) that they might do literally anything to keep from being put out there about them when they're adults?
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
What China can do is PRETEND like their industrial capacity is weak. But in reality, since their economy and political stability still depends on exports (bc they have relative overproductive capacity and only so many infrastructure projects to asborb it) they will still have to sell something to somebody. They've tied their development to being an export economy and they're stuck with it for the time being.
But, black-pill me all you want 'cause I'm not seeing a problem (except industrial chemicals and steel, which take huge investment and a lot of time to re-create elsewhere.) but maybe I'm missing something.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Here SIX, I thought you might find this interesting.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:China can only hurt us by failing to export critical commodities and materials. Whatever happens to their stock markets and banks and real estate speculators doesn't, insofar as I know, affect their industrial output bc half of their industries and ALL of their critical industries are state-owned enterprises (SOEs), an they just chunk out whatever they're told to chunk out.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Hey... In my mind, China is the real threat. Not Russia. I'm no fan of China.
Here's one thing that China is more than capable of that Russia is not...
How about we tank our own economy by pretending that it's already tanked (and sacrificing the lives and livelihood of a majority of our citizens while we're at it) just to financially take down America and the rest of the Western world when they're at their weakest point they've ever been?
I don't even want to sift through videos to find the ones that explain why China's collapse is going to hurt the rest of the world because I don't want to go down that blackpill road today, but to quote the GWB Administration, they're too big to fail. (Which is OUR fault).
... And they've also got a ton of blackmail info on Tik Tok users... Particularly Generation Zed. How many things do you think they've uploaded collectively as kids and teenagers (attached to ALL of their personal information on their phones) that they might do literally anything to keep from being put out there about them when they're adults?
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
What China can do is PRETEND like their industrial capacity is weak. But in reality, since their economy and political stability still depends on exports (bc they have relative overproductive capacity and only so many infrastructure projects to asborb it) they will still have to sell something to somebody. They've tied their development to being an export economy and they're stuck with it for the time being.
But, black-pill me all you want 'cause I'm not seeing a problem (except industrial chemicals and steel, which take huge investment and a lot of time to re-create elsewhere.) but maybe I'm missing something.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
All I've got to say is look at how the bullshit war between Russia and Ukraine made the price of fertilizer skyrocket worldwide.
Sure. It's a damn shame my old man had to pay twice as much this year to fertilize his lawn, but with gas prices already effecting the prices of food, the fertilizers made them go even higher.
We've been globalizing for decades and we'd Six Sigma'd the shit out of everything we could Six Sigma. China played a huge role in that.
We're running out of 3rd world countries to exploit, and if China isn't making our cheap T-Shirts anymore, expect a cheap T-shirt at WalMart to retail for $50.
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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus
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I had a nice thought-out post all ready but it got lost in the ether.
Anyway, I looked up Chinese exports on various online lists
https://www.tj-chinafreight.com/what-does-china-export/
and what I found is that IMHO a lot of what they export can be sourced from other lower-wage nations (textiles, plastic Walmart crap etc) or can be done without for quite a while (the endless flood of smart phones, TVs and kitchen gadgets/appliances) or at reduced levels (car parts, hand and power tools etc)
What I find more problematic are the parts or chemicals that we would need if we wanted or needed to re-industrialize, and pharmabceuticals and chemicals that we need on an ongoing basis.
I know I mentioned this before, but I became highly aware of china's industrial-chemical maufacturing when I was working. We had to analyze all kinds of chemicals for their air pollution potential, from housepaints to industrial adhesives to pesticides to cleaning products to automative/industrial maintenance coatings ... and in order to do that, we had to ID what was in them and then measure how much of each compound by comparison to a solution of known concentration. so we had to order the chemicals, and whether it was texanol or IBPC or acrylic adhesive or polyfluorinated surfactant or what-have-you, 95 times out of 100 it was sourced from China and the other 5 times it came from Germany (BASF, Merck etc).
If I had been in pharmaceutics it would prolly have been the same.
Chemical manufacturing is a dirty, polluting process and we were all too happy to offhsore that to China, with its lax environmental regulations.
So IMHO it won't be consumer products that will pinch ... much. It will be some unlooked-for item: lithium; industrial machine parts; solar panels; resins specialty and pharmacuetical chemicals; phosphate fertilizer; steel ... things that will be hard (chemicals etc) or impossible (lithium, phosphate) to replace.
The WH is making a big push to throttle Chinese IC manufacturing, so that will be the first pinchpoint. Which I think we can handle.
But if our fearless leaders push this to a general trade emabargo against China - or China decides to shut off the flow of certain goods - we will find ourselves hurting for really basic stuff. As usual, I don't believe our fearless leaders have thought this through, otherwise they would have hardened our economy against external shocks BEFORE they started shooting (economically, financially) at Russia and China.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:Two parts to the question: Since tariffs are levied by the government, where is the money going?
Biden Launches a Full-Blown Economic War on China, It Will Backfire
The US thinks it can block microchip technology from China. It won't and blowbacks are everywhere.
Mish
Oct 28, 2022
Microchip Warfare
Turning the Screws
*Financial Times: How the US chip export controls have turned the screws on China
*The Conversation: Clampdown on chip exports is the most consequential US move against China yet
*The Atlantic: Why Biden’s Block on Chips to China Is a Big Deal
*Links can be found in original article
*****
Please consider How Companies Are Dealing with US Restrictions on Chip Exports to China
The U.S. Commerce Department announced a series of new trade restrictions earlier this month that banned the export of some computer processing chips to China.
The restrictions affect not only U.S. businesses selling to China, but also any company whose products contain American chip technology. The U.S. government action has many companies considering how to move forward under the new rules.
Numerous American technology companies doing major business with China are facing possible severe damage to their profits. Other companies that manufacture technology products in China are having to withdraw U.S. employees because the ban also bars "U.S. persons" from supporting technology covered by the ban.
James Lewis is a senior vice president and director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. He told VOA the new restrictions seem to be "reshaping the market."
"The [South] Koreans, the Taiwanese and some American companies are really nervous about it,” Lewis said. “I mean, everyone's asking, 'What can I still sell to China?' And in some cases, the answer is 'nothing,'" he added.
In Britain’s Financial Times newspaper, U.S. national editor and columnist Edward Luce wrote that "Joe Biden this month launched a full-blown economic war on China."
So far, chip companies have reacted carefully to the ban. While recognizing the government's concerns, they have noted they were not given a chance to discuss the policy with U.S. officials before it was announced.
Call Them the Biden-Trump Tariffs Now
The Wall Street Journal comments Call Them the Biden-Trump Tariffs Now
President Biden has rolled back some of Donald Trump’s destructive tariffs, but not enough, and they’re still doing economic harm. New analyses of Mr. Trump’s Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs show how consumers and manufacturers are still paying for the border taxes that benefit only a few companies.
A study by Harbor Aluminum for the Beer Institute finds that the 10% tariff on imported aluminum cost U.S. beverage manufacturers $1.7 billion from March 2018 through August 2022. About 93% of the $1.7 billion has been pocketed by domestic aluminum producers and smelters in the U.S. and Canada. Only $120 million has gone to the U.S. government.
And, has that money gone into new aluminum production? Or has it simply gone to stock buybacks?
Quote:
While Biden relaxed some tariffs on China, the chip export ban is a sharp escalation in an economic war with China.
According to the Financial Times, China accounts for 33 per cent of sales at Applied Materials, 27 per cent at Intel and 31 per cent at Lam Research.
President Biden unequivocally blocked China’s access to high-end computer chips but how long can that last?
Blowbacks Everywhere
Inflationary Headwinds
De-globalization and decarbonization are both very inflationary.
Both parties seem OK with the former. Decarbonization by the US and EU Left greatly adds to the mess.
No Man's Land
Weaponizing currency reserves and diplomats on top of this is madness.NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
"Dangerous Escalation": US To Deploy Six Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers To Australia
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
China to 'welcome the Taliban back' in bid to extend Belt and Road into Afghanistan
China plans to link Afghanistan to the Belt and Road Initiative as the withdrawal of NATO forces from the country clears the way for Beijing’s return to one of the ancient Silk Road nations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-to-welcome-the-taliban-back
-in-bid-to-extend-belt-and-road-into-afghanistan/ar-AAKJErZ?ocid=msedgntp
China is said to have a long term strategy but without friends it will fail. So far they've pissed off all their neighbors and many other countries around the globe. They've tipped their hand and exposed what their long term strategy is, and it isn't good for anyone. It's been amazing to see how stupidly they've used aggression against everyone, even Russia. This is not a winning strategy.
It shows a complete lack of understanding of how to use diplomacy to further their policies. In other words; they have no experience doing so. This applies to their military as well.
They have no experience waging a battle much less a war. And since each branch of their military must go through the central government to get instructions, they lack the capability of launching a multiprong attack that isn't planned out well in advance. In other words, successfully using a 3 dimensional approach to fighting.
I'm still waiting on a typhoon to wipe out their manufactured islands.
tick tock
T
T
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