Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Ongoing Surrender "On Far Bigger Scale Than Kyiv Has Acknowledged" At Azovstal
1,700 and counting...
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/ongoing-surrender-far-bigger-scale-
kyiv-has-acknowledged-azovstal
I'm sure that there are still higher-ups and foreign high-ranking "advisors" down there. I can hardly wait until they're interrogated.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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So, thinking out loud here...
Apparently there is much criticism inside Russia that Ukraine isn't being rolled up faster, and concern by pro-Russian outsiders that the "go slow" campaign is going to give the west time to re-equip Ukraine and train additional troops in Poland, Romania etc. They are concerned that the west will turn Ukraine into Russia's slow bleeding war, like Vietnam.
Anti-Russians say that Russia's slow pace means that the Russian campaign has "stalled" or even been reversed.
So, did some thinking and discussing, and not sure that any of this is meaningful.
If Russia were to race to Ukraine's western border in a blitzkrieg of destruction (using missiles, bombs, and eventually artillery to flatten everything to rubble and then swarm with the rest of their troops) would it slow the pace of re-arming, re-equipping, and retraining going on in border (and further) nations?
No. (Not unless Russia is willing to strike outside of Ukraine.)
And if the west chooses to launch a counteroffensive from (say) Poland, what advantage would Russia have by being right at the border, except that maybe they could defend with artillery instead of longer-range weapons? Russia would in essence be fighting two wars: they would have to subdue occupied territory and at the same time defend against invaders crossing over the Polish border
I think that Russia's go-slow strategy is the right path. They can afford to wait until the west crosses the border with a serious amount of arms and/or soldiers because, really, they have no choice: There's no way to pre-empt that.
At the same time they maintain western Ukraine as a buffer zone/ battlefield. What I imagine Russia is doing at the moment is building up a stockpile of missiles, bombs, and long-range artillery in anticipation of the western border being breached. They will respond when it happens, not earlier. In the meantime, they're busy destroying the bulk of Kiev's army that's within reach. Once that army is "liquidated", Russian and allied troops in SE Ukraine can and will change direction. Not sure if they will head up the Dnieper (probably) or swarm the coast to Tranistria (encircling Odessa and laying it to seige) or both.
I believe their goal is still to force a surrender from Kiev, so they will apply whatever pressure they think is the most effective towards that goal. In the meantime they will continue to degrade Kiev's ability to transfer men and materiel to the east by hitting railway, bridge, and roadway infrastructure.
It would be a judo move for Russia to turn Ukraine into America's second Vietnam.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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I wasn't really paying attention to what was going on in Ukraine. Military affairs bore me to shit. So I had to go back and timeline events.
It seems the initial plan was to occupy Kiev by taking the Antonov Airport (17 miles from Kiev) and ferrying in more troops (a la Kazakhstan) but the level of resistance was misjudged and many elite paratroopers were killed.
A few days AFTER that, a "40-mile" convoy developed from the airport (which is to the west of Kiev) to the outskirts of Kiev. Given the number of Russian/Belarusian (?) troops committed to the operation (40,000) it's impossible to imagine that this was a serious attempt to take a soread-out city of 3million people. Especially since they knew by then that Antonov Airport was not under their control. My guess is that, by then, Russia has turned an attempted decapitation into a feint, which accounts for the poor equipment and relatively poor training, and by then the Russians had moved on to a war of attrition.
Given that the Russian general staff wargames with math (according to Andrei Martyanov) I imagine a war of attrition in a simplified differential equation: filling a bathtub with an open drain.
Assume the rate of fill is constant. The rate of drain, however, depends on the height of water above the drain. If the drain rate (of an empty tub) is always faster than the full rate, the tub will never fill. If OTOH the fill rate is slightly higher than the drain rate, the tub will slowly fill. Until water pressure increases the drain rate. The question is, will equilibrium be reached before the tub overflows?
Now imagine an equation with DOZENS of variables. You need to identify the rate-limiting step(s) to simplify the equation, shore up your weakest operations etc. Also develop contingencies and estimate your enemy's variables and see if you can cause a critical rate-limiting step.
It seems that Russia isn't afraid of a long war.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Quote:Did Human Rights Watch do what Signym says it did? No.
Originally posted by SignyM:
Oh yeah, the same HRW that made up Qaddafi's "crimes against humanity" out of nothing.
Fuck off, HRW.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - reportedly NOT William Blake, but Signym.
See Spark Notes for the actual words and meaning, rather than Signym's not-at-all-subtle rewrite of a long poem. https://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/blake/section8/
https://www.hrw.org/sitesearch?search=Libya&sort_by=search_api_rel
evance
Did William Blake write what Signym's signature says he did? No.
Did Human Rights Watch release its report on Russian War Crimes? Yes.
Is Signym believable? No. No. And No.
Ukraine: Executions, Torture During Russian Occupation
Russian forces controlling much of the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions in northeastern Ukraine from late February through March 2022 subjected civilians to summary executions, torture, and other grave abuses that are apparent war crimes, Human Rights Watch said today.
More at https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/05/18/ukraine-executions-torture-during-
russian-occupation
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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I read the HRW report. It alleged that Qaddafi had done things to protesters that didn't happen, incuding an especially gruesome description of how a 6year-old girl was watching the demonstrations from a 2nd floor porch, but a tank clipped a support post, knocking the girl down to the street where she was crushed by tank treads.
The report has since been scrubbed but is referenced by other documents:
Quote:
Multiple reports from reputable organizations such as Human Rights Watch claim to have witnessed security forces firing heavily into crowds of peaceful protesters in the capital city of Tripoli.
http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1642/libya-2011-exploring-the
-implementation-of-the-responsibility-to-protect
Unfortunately, the link that they use only takes you to a Newsweek article which doesn't cite HRW. It was a nearly complete scrubbing.
Their less-sensational report is here
https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/08/01/handing-qaddafi-get-out-jail-free-
card
****
You interpret the poem however you like, SECOND. Blake crossed off the alternate "If there was nobody poor" to emphasize that impoverishing people is something we do on purpose. More here:
https://www.paper-darts.com/pity-would-be-no-more/
If you want to talk about liars, please note YOUR apology to me for repeatedly lying by calling me a Russian troll. Thanks for your apology; it's the one decent thing I remember you doing.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
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Another thing that occurred to me while I was pondering Russia's tactics in Ukraine. Andrei Martyanov (ex Soviet naval officer now living in th USA) emphasizes
Amateurs think of strategy. Generals think of logistics
So while I was thinking about what it takes to move equipment and personnel here and there, that explains Russia's limiting its role in Syria to air support and training.
Air support is relatively expensive. OTOH, moving enough tanks and artillery to make a difference in Syria, let alone "boots on the ground" would have been phenomenonaly more difficult, and pontless, considering that Syria already has an army, and Hezbollah and Iran were also supplying troops. So I believe that Russia looked at the critical deficiency and filled the gap in the most efficient manner.
The one gap they left was air defense. They have anti-aircraft systems in place but limited its use to protecting Russian bases only. Maybe they should have created a "no fly" zone over Syria so that Israel couldn't strike at will.
Huh.
Maybe military matters aren't so boring after all, if you look at it right.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Amateurs think of strategy. Generals think of logistics
I guess that explains the 40 mile log jam headed for Kyiv and then not headed for Kyiv early on.
"Logjamstics!"
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Quote:Yep. No idea what happened there. Nobody's perfect.
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Amateurs think of strategy. Generals think of logistics
I guess that explains the 40 mile log jam headed for Kyiv and then not headed for Kyiv early on.
Still, the Russians are winning.
Why do I think this?
Because
Quote:
On May 13, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu for the first time since February 18. Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3030753/readout-
of-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-call-with-russian-minister/
IMHO the USA doesn't ask for a cease-fire when it thinks it's winning.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake
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Quote:MORE AT https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraine-sitrep-russians-break-th
Ukraine SitRep - Russians Break Through U.S. Bolsterism
On May 14 I noted that the U.S. had asked Russia for a ceasefire in Ukraine:
The U.S. readout of the call says:
On May 13, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu for the first time since February 18. Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication.
Austin initiated the call and the U.S. is seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine!!!
Yesterday the top officers of the U.S. and Russia had a call which, again, the U.S. side had initiated:
Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, held a conversation that the Pentagon declined to further detail beyond acknowledging it had happened.
Thinks must be bad in Ukraine for this to have happened. Indeed if one trusts the daily 'clobber list' the Russian Ministry of Defense puts out all positions of the Ukrainian army are under heavy artillery fire and it is losing about 500 men per day. There are additional Russian effective strikes on training camps, weapon storage sites and transport hubs all over the country.
On top of that the tactical situation at the eastern frontline has changed after Russian forces broke through the heavily fortified frontline.
Source: liveuamap.com - bigger
A few days ago the Russian army went forward along the H-32 road, broke through the line in the direction of Propasna and took the town. It has since extended the bulge by taking several villages to the north, west and south.
bigger
This breakthrough gives the chance to roll up the Ukrainian fortifications along the frontline through flank attacks or from behind. By cutting the supply lines of the Ukrainian troops to the north and south envelopes can be created which will eventual lead to cauldrons with no way out for the Ukrainian troops.
This is especially dangerous for the several thousand soldiers north of the bulge which currently defend the cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk in the north eastern part of the upper bubble.
bigger
The Russian plan was to have another breakthrough from the north pushing to Siversk to then close the upper envelope. But after several failed attempts to cross the forest area and the Seversky Donets river that breakthrough has still to happen.
Russia is now likely to push fresh troops into the Propasna bulge to extend its reach into all directions. Reports of current actions show that the heavy fighting and bombing on the frontline continues and that bombing also continues to target traffic nodes.
bigger
Other fronts in Ukraine are currently relatively quiet with little direct fire. Still daily Russian artillery attacks hits all Ukrainian front lines and will cost daily casualties.
Some 2,000 Azov militia and Ukrainian army troops have left the catacombs of Azovstal in Mariupol. Another thousand may still be down there. The Russian army is filtering these prisoners. Members of Azov and other militia will be put to court. Ukrainian army soldiers will become prisoners of war.
The gasoline and diesel scarcity in Ukraine is currently having severe impacts. Even the Ukrainian military is now rationing its fuel. Since about six weeks ago Russia has systematically attacked refineries and fuel storage sites in Ukraine. It also disabled railroad bridges along the lines that brought fuel from Moldova and Romania.
At the same time the Ukrainian government had held up price regulations for fuel. The consumer sale prices for diesel and gasoline were fixed. The cost of fuel brought in by private trucks from Poland exceeded the price gas station owners could ask for. In consequence gas stations ran dry as their owners refrained from purchasing new fuel.
rough-us-bolsterism.html#more
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone
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Ukraine rules out any ceasefire deal that would involve ceding territory to Russia | May 22, 2022
Ukraine has said it will not agree to any ceasefire deal that would involve handing over territory to Russia, as Moscow intensified its attack in the eastern Donbas region on Sunday.
“The war must end with the complete restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” said Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, in a Twitter post.
The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, offered Warsaw’s backing, telling politicians in Kyiv that the international community had to demand Russia’s complete withdrawal and that sacrificing any of Ukraine’s territory would be a “huge blow” to the west.
“Worrying voices have appeared, saying that Ukraine should give in to Putin’s demands,” Duda said, in the first in-person address to the Ukrainian parliament by a foreign leader since Russia’s invasion on 24 February. “Only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future,” he said.
On Saturday, Ukraine’s lead negotiator in the stalled peace talks, Mykhailo Podolyak, said: “Any concession to Russia is not a path to peace, but a war postponed for several years. Ukraine trades neither its sovereignty, nor territories and Ukrainians living on them.”
Podolyak made clear that Ukraine would not accept any deal with Russia that involved ceding territory, and that agreeing to a ceasefire now while making concessions to Russia would backfire on Ukraine because “Moscow would hit back harder after any break in fighting”.
More at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/22/ukraine-russia-ceasefire
-deal-territory-donbas
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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