Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 21:09
VIEWED: 562266
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Early, more sober prediction of Russian over confidence and potential failure in Ukraine... by a Russian Colonel
Predictions of bloodthirsty political scientists
About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos
About the author: Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok - ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (and shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality.
In the expert community of Russia, the opinion has recently taken root quite strongly that it will not even be necessary to send troops to the territory of Ukraine, since the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.
Some political analysts emphasize that a powerful Russian fire strike will destroy almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations. Moreover, a number of experts conclude that even one crushing blow from Russia will be enough to end such a war.
As a cherry on the cake, some analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kyiv regime”.
NO EASY WALK
Let's start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine, in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds, would turn into Novorossia. We have already drawn maps, estimated the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.
But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.
In a word, the liberation campaign in 2022, following the model and likeness of 1939, will not work out in any way. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are more true than ever: “It is clear that we will now have not an easy battle, but a hard battle.”
"BY A SMALL BLOOD, A POWERFUL BLOW"
Now about the "powerful fire strike by Russia", which allegedly will destroy "practically all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
This expression alone shows that only political workers could say such a thing. For reference: in the course of hypothetical military operations on the scale of a theater of operations, strikes are carried out on priority targets and massive fire strikes. Note that in the course of operational-strategic planning, the epithets “powerful” (as well as “medium”, “weak”, etc.) are not used.
Military science emphasizes that strikes can be strategic (this mostly applies to strategic nuclear forces), operational and tactical. According to the number of forces involved and objects hit, strikes can be massive, group and single. It is still better not to introduce or use other concepts, even in works of a political science nature.
Attacks on priority targets and massive fire strikes can be carried out within the front (fronts on the western borders of Russia have not yet been formed) or the main command of the armed forces in the theater of operations (so far, one h
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"You are fighting for the motherland," Putin told his troops on May 9th.
Putin accused Ukraine of seeking to attain nuclear weapons and planning a "punitive operation in the Donbas, for an invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea." He also laid blame on the West for refusing to have "an honest dialogue" about Russia's demands for formal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the alliance will pull back its forces from countries in eastern Europe that joined after the Cold War.
"Thus, an absolutely unacceptable threat was systematically created for us and directly at our borders," Putin added. "The danger was growing everyday."
The Russian leader claimed that attacking Ukraine "was a forced, timely and only right decision -- the decision of a sovereign, strong, independent country."
"Russia has given a preemptive rebuff to aggression," he said.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/putin-defends-ukraine-invasion-ma
rking-wwii-victory/story?id=84586995
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
"You are fighting for the motherland," Putin told his troops on May 9th.
Putin accused Ukraine of seeking to attain nuclear weapons and planning a "punitive operation in the Donbas, for an invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea." He also laid blame on the West for refusing to have "an honest dialogue" about Russia's demands for formal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the alliance will pull back its forces from countries in eastern Europe that joined after the Cold War.
"Thus, an absolutely unacceptable threat was systematically created for us and directly at our borders," Putin added. "The danger was growing everyday."
The Russian leader claimed that attacking Ukraine "was a forced, timely and only right decision -- the decision of a sovereign, strong, independent country."
"Russia has given a preemptive rebuff to aggression," he said.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/putin-defends-ukraine-invasion-ma
rking-wwii-victory/story?id=84586995
The Irony is that for a country and culture that lies so often, they are terrible at it. Lazy people think lying is a refuge. They'd rather lie than do the work of being ethical or virtuous, or even to simply, "figure things out." You can see it in their military on so many levels.
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Quote:Lies certainly have gotten America into trouble. Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster wrote the book Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
The Irony is that for a country and culture that lies so often, they are terrible at it. Lazy people think lying is a refuge. They'd rather lie than do the work of being ethical or virtuous, or even to simply, "figure things out." You can see it in their military on so many levels.
Download the free book from the mirrors at https://libgen.unblockit.blue/search.php?req=H.R.+McMaster
From the Preface:
Despite scores of books on the subject, the why and how of direct U.S. intervention in the Vietnam War remains unclear. The war continues to capture the public interest in part because, looking back, its cost seems exorbitant—and would seem so even if the United States had “won.” The war took the lives of fifty-eight thousand Americans and well over one million Vietnamese. It left Vietnam in ruins and consumed billions of American dollars, nearly wrecking the American economy. Vietnam divided American society and inflicted on the United States one of the greatest political traumas since the Civil War. Indeed, the war’s legacies proved to be as profound as the war was traumatic. It led Americans to question the integrity of their government as never before. Thirty years later, after the end of the Cold War, the shadow of the American experience in Vietnam still hangs heavy over American foreign and military policy, and over American society.
Hopefully, there will someday be a Russian version of "The Lies That Led to the Ukraine War".
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:Quote:
Originally posted by second:
"You are fighting for the motherland," Putin told his troops on May 9th.
Putin accused Ukraine of seeking to attain nuclear weapons and planning a "punitive operation in the Donbas, for an invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea." He also laid blame on the West for refusing to have "an honest dialogue" about Russia's demands for formal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the alliance will pull back its forces from countries in eastern Europe that joined after the Cold War.
"Thus, an absolutely unacceptable threat was systematically created for us and directly at our borders," Putin added. "The danger was growing everyday."
The Russian leader claimed that attacking Ukraine "was a forced, timely and only right decision -- the decision of a sovereign, strong, independent country."
"Russia has given a preemptive rebuff to aggression," he said.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/putin-defends-ukraine-invasion-ma
rking-wwii-victory/story?id=84586995
The Irony is that for a country and culture that lies so often, they are terrible at it. Lazy people think lying is a refuge. They'd rather lie than do the work of being ethical or virtuous, or even to simply, "figure things out." You can see it in their military on so many levels.
The German defeat was not exclusive to Russia as Putin portrays for propaganda purposes. Aside from the west, all the countries that were swallowed by Russia that then made up the Soviet Union, also contributed to Germanys’ loss.
T
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Be ready to learn twenty-two thousand Russia troops have been surrounded in Izyum. Hey comrades kiki and signym, Putin says send money.
Too funny, can you see me laughing comrades, cause I'm a laughing.
T
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T
Former Russian Prime Minister says Putin is 'losing strength'
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Has Putin shown us his off ramp?
In his speech yesterday, Putin did not declare a mobilization, or even lay the groundwork for one. Instead, he seemed to be laying the groundwork for a cease fire that would involve only rhetorical concessions from Ukraine and NATO.
Putin’s bottom line: Ukraine stays out of NATO, and Crimea remains in Russian hands (or perhaps he would even accept genuine self-determination for Crimea). NATO reiterates that its only concerns are defensive.
Putin will not be able to claim victory in a war of territorial conquest, but he can claim a victory in a defensive war against unprovoked aggression.
If this is right, we should allow Putin to save face and go home. We should not threaten him with prosecution (prosecuting others involved in war crimes is fine). As long as he remains in charge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, deposing him is beyond our capability, and in any event his successor in the event of a collapse of his regime may be even worse than he is.
In the longer run, perhaps this catastrophic war will persuade Russians that their inclination towards authoritarianism is unjustified and they should work to rejoin democratic Europe. It will soon become clear that the consequences of isolation will be catastrophic for Russia. We should make clear that we would welcome them back into the democratic fold. Things could certainly go badly wrong, but after resisting any optimism on the war for weeks I really do see a path forward that is far from endless war and war crimes and totalitarian domination for Ukraine.
More at https://angrybearblog.com/2022/05/has-putin-shown-us-his-off-ramp
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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The US sees “anecdotal reports” of Russian troops and “mid-grade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level” refusing to obey orders to move forward in the new Donbas offensive in Ukraine, according to a senior US defense official.
The official said these officers “have either refused to obey orders or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey.”
Russian forces have struggled with widespread morale problems since the beginning of the invasion, according to this official.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-09-22/
h_dbac40d3209526677220c80431a10322
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
The US sees “anecdotal reports” of Russian troops and “mid-grade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level” refusing to obey orders to move forward in the new Donbas offensive in Ukraine, according to a senior US defense official.
The official said these officers “have either refused to obey orders or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey.”
Russian forces have struggled with widespread morale problems since the beginning of the invasion, according to this official.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-09-22/
h_dbac40d3209526677220c80431a10322
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
T
Ukraine War: 'The next few weeks will be critical'
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