Predicting the future with 90% accuracy... and Iran
POSTED BY: SignyM
UPDATED: Monday, August 31, 2026 23:59
VIEWED: 8354
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War? Bah.
Your'wars' and suchlike bore me.
Wake me up when the nukes start flying, cuz then I'm emigrating to Canada.
-Danny
and every time I play with passion I start breaking strings,
and my voice cracks when I sing from my heart
guess that's the price I've got to pay to know that I'm alive
this melody is tearing me apart
THRICE RULES!!!!!!!!!
http://www.myspace.com/otherrandomdude
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In this case I think Iran isn't internally motivated to acquire bomb capability. It requires some serious purchasing power or internal investment - for know-how, materials and facilities. And after 9/11 people in Iran demonstrated in the streets in support of the US. The optimum for them would be - I think - to back off from the rhetoric they've been cornered into making - and the follow-on actions they might have to take.
Defusing relations is one of those win/ win solutions.
But that's what the calculations predict - in a quantitiative and validated way. If the US backs off the optimum for Iran will be to back off as well.
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There's a 90% probability we can all just get along -
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Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
In this case I think Iran isn't internally motivated to acquire bomb capability. It requires some serious purchasing power or internal investment - for know-how, materials and facilities.
I disagree, possessing nuclear weapons has benefits beyond defense, it also gives you more chips in offensive negotiations. Additionally we are ignoring the possibility that the Iranians aren't lying and they do want nuclear power, either to the exclusion of weapons (unlikely) or in addition to weapons (in which case having invested in one you might as well do the other).
Quote:
And after 9/11 people in Iran demonstrated in the streets in support of the US.
2 things, that was before we went out of our way to piss off the entire world and that was the people of Iran not the government.
Quote:
The optimum for them would be - I think - to back off from the rhetoric they've been cornered into making - and the follow-on actions they might have to take.
The optimum result for them would be to acquire nuclear weapons and nuclear power. However the actions (and resultant reactions) necessary to do so will probably be sub-optimum
Quote:
Defusing relations is one of those win/ win solutions.
Until it reaches the status of appeasement
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Here is where I can only point to the result of the analysis - which is, despite what you or I debate, Iran will pursue nuclear energy, and the more aggressively the US targets Iran, the more likely it will develop nuclear weapons.
"Bueno de Mesquita says that the broad outline is that there is nothing the United States can do to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear energy for civilian power generation. The more aggressively the U.S. responds to Iran, he says, the more likely it is that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The upshot of the study, Bueno de Mesquita argues, is that the international community needs to find out if there is a way to monitor civilian nuclear energy projects in Iran thoroughly enough to ensure that Iran is not developing weapons."
Here is where the US can avoid going out of its way to trigger the exact thing it says it wants to prevent.
As SignyM has pointed out fairly often (and I do learn, even if it takes a while), to state the choices as either bomb or appease is clearly false. There are other options in between. Clearly sanctions worked in Iraq - so that might be an avenue to consider. But whatever is done, it will need cooperation by ALL major players in their relations with Iran.
BTW - I maintain that the US is NOT interested in the state of Iran's nuclear capability.
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"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."
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$6/gallon gas in USA, when Bush Gang attacks Iran, to shut off the supply of cheap oil, just like already done in Iraq, Alaska and Gulf of Mexico.
Quote:
Jewish CFR President: $200 Oil If War With Iran
Richard Haass the President of the Council on Foreign Relations and Bilderberg luminary was interviewed by disinfobabe Katie Couric on the situation with Iran. A $200 oil price is certainly not out of the realm of possibility considering oil recently eclipsed the $90 a barrel mark. Oil was $30 a barrel before the Bush Gang's 2nd invasion of Iraq.
www.roguegovernment.com/news.php?id=4723
Crime does pay, extremly well. Especially murder.
That's their modus operandi in Iraq, where gas was FIVE-CENTS/GALLON:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/4354269.stm
That's been their modus operandi since the 1970s, when gas was 29-cents/gallon:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendi_Deng
Hanoi Hannity: "Outsourcing your job is good for me."
"US ports owned by Commie China is good for me."
"Dead and disabled US soldiers are good for me."
"Sir Rupert dines with Hillary every week."
"Ron Paul does not exist in my 'Verse."
"As far as Chinese goes, I resented it."
-Adam Tudyk, The Making of Firefly
FOX, MYSPACE & FIREFLY OWNED BY COMMUNIST CHINA!
www.piratenews.org/pntv-schedule.html
Does that seem right to you?
Firefly Music Video: Tangerine dream - Confrontation, Thief soundtrack
www.megavideo.com/?v=JVT35GR8
www.scifi.com/onair/
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Royal Dutch Shell Corporation
Bomb Iran = President-For-Life George DWI Bush
Quote:
"If President Bush copied Julius Caesar by ordering his army to empty Iraq of Arabs and repopulate the country with Americans, he would achieve immediate results: popularity with his military; enrichment of America by converting an Arabian Iraq into an American Iraq (therefore turning it from a liability to an asset); and boost American prestiege while terrifying American enemies. He could then follow Caesar's example and use his newfound popularity with the military to wield military power to become the first permanent president of America, and end the civil chaos caused by the continually squabbling Congress and the out-of-control Supreme Court. President Bush can fail in his duty to himself, his country, and his God, by becoming “ex-president” Bush or he can become “President-for-Life” Bush: the conqueror of Iraq, who brings sense to the Congress and sanity to the Supreme Court. Then who would be able to stop Bush from emulating Augustus Caesar and becoming ruler of the world? For only an America united under one ruler has the power to save humanity from the threat of a new Dark Age wrought by terrorists armed with nuclear weapons. When the ancient Roman general Julius Caesar was struggling to conquer ancient Gaul, he not only had to defeat the Gauls, but he also had to defeat his political enemies in Rome who would destroy him the moment his tenure as consul (president) ended. Caesar pacified Gaul by mass slaughter; he then used his successful army to crush all political opposition at home and establish himself as permanent ruler of ancient Rome. The simple truth that modern weapons now mean a nation must practice genocide or commit suicide. Israel provides the perfect example. If the Israelis do not raze Iran, the Iranians will fulfill their boast and wipe Israel off the face of the earth. The wisest course would have been for President Bush to use his nuclear weapons to slaughter Iraqis until they complied with his demands, or until they were all dead."
—Jew Frank Gaffney, Jew Dick Cheney, Jew Richard Perle, Jew Elliott Abrams, CIA Director James Woolsey (Jew?), Family Security Matters Corporation aka Center for Security Policy Corporation (CSP) ak National Security Advisory Council Corporation, President-for-life Bush, August 2007
www.infowars.com/articles/ps/dictatorship_neocons_make_bush_dictator_o
f_the_world.htm
We should pay Iran to nuke Israel off the face of the Earth. It would be a bargain.
President-For-Life Benito Mussolini welcomed home in Italy
Assassinated by British Communists to silence their MI6 employee
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Iran announces new space launch amid nuclear talks
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211230-iran-announces-new-spac
e-launch-amid-nuclear-talks-1
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They should shoot the Jawas into space.
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Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."
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Biden’s push to revive Obama-era Iran deal hits new snags
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/23/bidens-push-revive-ob
ama-era-iran-deal-hits-new-sn/
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Sir Salman Rushdie reveals he is in therapy to try and overcome 'crazy dreams' sparked by his stabbing
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12293501/Sir-Salman-Rushdie-r
eveals-therapy-try-overcome-crazy-dreams.html
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