new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 22:21
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The virus has a lot of potential to be a pandemic, but what eventually will happen is pretty much up to its genetics and mutations. My opinion is that given the information so far - especially the virus's explosive spread far past its origin in mere weeks - officials shouldn't be waiting for proof of pandemic, they should be acting on the potential for one. Otherwise, we're just hoping for luck. I dunno. How lucky do we feel today, punk?
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CNN today
Hong Kong upgrades Wuhan virus outbreak to 'emergency' | Three cases confirmed in France | Four in Australia | Over 230 are in critical condition in China
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-0
1-25-20/index.html
• WSJ: US to evacuate Americans out of China
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/25/politics/coronavirus-us-evacuate-am
ericans-china/index.html
• Wuhan medical workers tell of coronavirus challenges
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/25/china/wuhan-coronavirus-update-intl
-hnk/index.html
• Video appears to show desperation of patients in Wuhan
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/01/24/china-wuhan-coronavirus-ho
spital-overcrowd-culver-nr-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/around-the-world/
• A visual guide to the Wuhan coronavirus
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/22/world/wuhan-coronavirus-visual-guid
e-intl/index.html
A lot has changed since China's SARS outbreak 17 years ago. But some things haven't
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/24/asia/china-sars-coronavirus-intl-hn
k/index.html
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Comment: How bad? It all depends on the ease of infection.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/01/harvard-expert-calls-coro
navirus-outbreak-thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad.html
Harvard expert calls coronavirus outbreak 'thermonuclear pandemic level bad'
An expert advisor to the World Health Organization (WHO) has described the coronavirus outbreak as potentially "thermonuclear pandemic level bad".
But research into the disease - which at present has no vaccine, and might not for months - has doctors worried. Some have estimated for every person that gets infected, they will infect up to four more.
https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.medrxiv.org/co
ntent/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions
Jonathan M. Read1, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1, Derek A.T. Cummings2, Antonia Ho3, Chris P. Jewell1
Affiliations:
1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Gainesville, United States of America.
3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
United Kingdom.
Correspondence: jonathan.read@lancaster.ac.uk
Key findings
• We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
• We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
• If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
• Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.
• There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.
Others have come to figures of 3.8, 3.3, and 2.6, all above the WHO's estimate of between 1.4 and 2.5.
It's also been discovered people can carry the virus without showing symptoms, doctors calling them "cryptic cases of walking pneumonia".
Only 5.1 percent of all cases in Wuhan have been identified, researchers in the UK estimate, with perhaps more than 11,000 infected by January 21.
The UK scientists said it's still "early days"
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I'm knocked out by what is probably a well-known Influenza B Victoria bug. I can't imagine what would happen with something much more contagious. Even if it isn't more deadly, it has the capacity to infect a whole lot more people... by a factor of several thousand ... so even an "inconsequnetial" flu can cause a lot of death if it infects a lot of people.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
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A former co-worker now retiree just texted me the first case of 2019nCoV is here in SoCal in Santa Ana. Though it would have been funnier if it showed up in Corona.
I think 'm going to look like an idiot and start wearing a mask. And using hand sanitizer where I can find it, and asking the stores I frequent to set some out for general use.
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Meh... it will be fine.
If this were 20 years ago, you'd barely hear about it. But with the internet and cable news today I'm sure people are hearing about it 10 times a day at least.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Out there you're probably well-isolated Jack, but here in SoCal there's A LOT of travel between China and this area! Here's a figure I pulled from wiki - keep in mind this is one route out of many:
Busiest international routes to and from LAX (2019)
Taipei–Taoyuan 857,257 passengers China Airlines, EVA Air
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_International_Airport
Back when, when I lived in NYS, I never ever got sick. It was such a backwater. Nothing new ever showed up. But when I moved here to SoCal, I got slammed at least once a year. And it's because there are so many international vectors in and out of here.
The other thing I know for a fact is that for every one case you see, there are many you don't. So, given my long history of asthma and poor lung function, I'd rather look weird - and be safe!
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Indeed. Have never been so sick as in LA. At my doctors office they have stations set up with hand sanitizer, masks, and antiviral laced tissues. Soon as I arrived I put on a mask and used the hand sanitizer. Dr asked me if I was trying not to get sick, I told her I was just trying not to get OTHER people sick! She smiled.
One good thing about masks is that they also keep you from touching your nose or mouth.
Hey, maybe it will be cured by a Corona beer! In Corona!
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!
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I usually get pretty sick every year or two. Got hit pretty hard the last two years actually, but that's probably because I was working retail. Not only can't the people afford to stay home when they're sick and lose that pay, but you're talking thousands of potentially sick customers too. Plenty of flu going around every year. I've just probably missed it this year because I'm not working. *fingers crossed*
I'm not telling you not to protect yourself. Absolutely do whatever you feel is necessary, especially given your history. I just feel like maybe you're thinking too much about it is all. Don't let the Legacy Media do to you with this virus what it's done to everybody who's got TDS. 
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I've heard some news reports, usually daily, about this.
Seems I recall a report of one dead. Something like 20 cases.
Then I heard, maybe next day, 9 dead.
Next figure I heard was 26 dead.
Next figure I heard was 50-some dead. And 800-some cases.
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