Trump's Trade Wars - another disaster
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Tuesday, July 7, 2020 08:51
VIEWED: 14929
PAGE 15 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:Nate Silver of https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1158488079453347846 thinks that Trump’s chances are about 50-50. The more I think about it, however, the slightly more bearish I get on Trump’s chances. So right now I’d say there’s more like a 45 percent chance of Trump winning reelection.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
First off, I will talk about whatever I want to, in any thread that I want to. A thread's title has never stopped any of you from going off topic before. For instance, I don't remember any thread titles in the history of the RWED such as "My name is Second and I'm a millionaire rancher", or "My name is Second and here's why the President should die", or "My name is Second and I think everybody making minimum wage should kill their boss and take everything they own", but you still manage to fit at least one of those into a thread on a daily basis.
Second, Second, I've never said I was a fan of Trump's economic policies and I think that is his one weakness. Then again, I've never seen a politician of any level let alone a President do it right since I've been old enough to pay attention.
What I think you fail to understand however, is that whether or not the economy is doing well in 2020, Trump is going to win on that point by sheer virtue of the Democrat's current platform of reparations, freebies for everybody and open borders leading to further freebies for people who weren't even living here before the election.
One might even argue that the worse the economy gets, the better Trump's chances are for re-election if we're only talking about the economy being a factor, which it very well might be if your fantasy of the US economy taking a nosedive comes to fruition in the next year.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Why? Three reasons:
1) The economy will not get any better for Trump and probably will get worse.
2) Trump cannot count on Democratic apathy in 2020.
3) Democrats in 2020 are not Republicans in 2016. Right-wing commentators are desperately trying to pump up Democratic presidential candidates who might roil the party, such as Marianne Williamson or Tulsi Gabbard. It’s not easy to dismiss the possibility, as four years ago a fringe candidate managed to win the GOP nomination. But as for actual polling, Williamson (and Gabbard) remain close to zero.
So, to sum up: Trump’s economy looks weaker than it did three months ago, and the trend line is worrisome for his reelection campaign. Democrats seem both energized and pragmatic.
www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/07/why-i-think-chances-donald-t
rumps-re-election-are-getting-worse/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
I already covered the economy. Because of the Democratic debates that no nominee will be able to walk back to the center, Trump wins on the economy either way. Either the economy is doing "great" like it is now, or it really takes a shit before the election. If the latter happens, anybody debating Trump 1 on 1 is going to have to explain how they plan on paying for open boarders, freebies for citizens as well as anybody we're going to start letting in without any resistance at all and any reparations that they've been bringing up in the debates.
I don't see what's "pragmatic" about any of those stances, especially in a down economy.
As for the energy, I already addressed that as well. Everybody on the extremely broad Democrat spectrum right now sees at least one candidate that speaks their language. It's easy for you and Marcos to be in agreement on things right now when he's got ultra-leftwing socialist nutjobs on that stage, but what happens to Marcos and all of his black mask clad buddies when Biden wins the primary? Are they going to meet you at the poll and vote for Biden? I wouldn&#
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Story about Trump's Trade Wars crashing the Economy . . . for RVs
Multiyear drops in RV shipments have preceded the last three recessions.
Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association.
“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind.
Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.
Wait. What’s this about rising prices due to tariffs?
RVs can range in price from about $12,000 for a folding camping trailer to $212,000 for a high-end motor home, according to average retail prices collected by the RV Industry Association. The prices have been sensitive to the U.S. tariffs imposed on some Chinese goods. The industry estimates that as many as 523 items could be hit by the tariffs, everything from the toilet-seat covers that go into RV bathrooms and cow hides for leather furniture to the aluminum or steel used throughout the vehicles.
Divya Brown, the president of Houston-based TAXA Outdoors, a small RV manufacturer, said her company bought most of its parts from Elkhart, Indiana. Her suppliers are raising their prices to account for the hit they are taking from imported goods such as aluminum and steel. Ms. Brown said the company saw a 22% jump in the cost of steel and a 9% jump in the cost of aluminum.
www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-aroun
d-the-bend-11566207001
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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On the eve of Trump’s trade war, U.S. agricultural exports were almost 40 percent of the value of farm production, up from just 15 percent circa 1970.
It shouldn’t have been hard to predict that Trumponomics would be bad for farmers. Trump’s desire for a trade war was out in the open from the beginning; protectionism is right up there with racism and anti-environmentalism as one of his core values. And a trade war was bound to hurt farm exports. Did anyone really imagine that China, an economic superpower with its own fierce nationalism, wouldn’t retaliate against U.S. tariffs?
So what were farmers thinking? My guess is that they let the will to believe override their judgment. Trump seemed like their kind of guy. He certainly seemed to share their dislike for urban elites who look down on people like them. So they convinced themselves that he knew what he was doing, that he would win his trade war and that they would be among the victors sharing the spoils.
Even now many farmers seem to believe that the pain will end any day now, that Trump will soon announce a deal that restores all the old markets and more.
So what will happen as the trade war drags on? Don’t expect farmers to suddenly exclaim en masse, “Hey, we’ve been had!” Real life doesn’t work that way. But they have, in fact, been had, and they may finally be starting to realize it.
Farmers are hurting financially. Investors are worried about a possible recession for the economy as a whole, but the farm recession is already here, with falling incomes, rising delinquency rates and surging bankruptcies.
www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/opinion/trump-trade-farmers.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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lol
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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As part of a cease-fire deal on Friday, China agreed to buy up to $50 billion in US farm products, while the US said it would suspend a tariff increase on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports that was set to take effect Tuesday. – CBS News
Yet those agreements have not been put on paper by either side. Early Monday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed the preliminary pact was "subject to documentation." The US could still slap additional import taxes on virtually all imports from China in December. – Business Insider
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-china-trade-relations/sl-AA
IM15f
'Nothing-burger': US-China truce leaves big issues for later
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nothing-burger-us-china-truce-lea
ves-big-issues-for-later/ar-AAILUyo?ocid=msn360
T 
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Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:
American banks won't go near him. That's why Russia owns him.
economics
China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump
Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement.
In private conversations with visitors to Beijing and other interlocutors in recent weeks, Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest issues, according to people familiar with the matter. They remain concerned about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/china-said-to-doubt
-long-term-trade-deal-possible-with-trump
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Way to go Donnie.
China Wins WTO Case to Sanction $3.6 Billion in U.S. Trade
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-wins-wto-case-to-sanctio
n-dollar36-billion-in-us-trade/ar-AAJGCOm?ocid=spartandhp
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Trump Vowed to Shrink the Trade Gap. It Just Grew.
Trump has pointed to the trade deficit — an excess of American imports over exports — as a sign of a hollowed-out manufacturing sector, and promised to shrink the figure by reworking the terms of trade between the United States and other countries.
The data released Tuesday suggest that the global trade wars Mr. Trump has launched have not had the desired effect.
The overall United States trade deficit continued to widen in the first nine months of 2019, data released Tuesday morning show, defying a Trump administration plan to try to shrink the figure by renegotiating trade agreements.
https://montrealtimes.news/trump-vowed-to-shrink-the-trade-gap-it-just
-grew/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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