Real World Event Discussions

IRAN: Trump's war?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Sunday, September 6, 2026 16:14
VIEWED: 23215
PAGE 8 of 42

CAPTAINCRUNCH

Friday, June 21, 2019 7:51 PM

More like Trump told "senior advisors" to tell the media, "He was ready to pull the trigger... really really really ready... but he decided not to at the last second" knowing/thinking Iranian leaders would hear that and be scared and grateful. "Whoa! That was close!" But nobody believes Trump any more.

And how stupid would he be to start a war before 2020? Or let it get started by anyone? If he thinks it would help him he truly is delusional. Or more delusional.

SIGNYM

Friday, June 21, 2019 10:40 PM

SECONDRATE, why are you posting about income inequality in the IRAN thread? Can't you resist just shitting all over the board??

In any case, your charts are too old; they don'tshow the fulleffect of the "Obama years" in wealth gap, income gap etc. If you had chosen charts which at least extend to 2016, you would have presented a more objective picture. I've chosen to post a more complete picture here under MY PLATFORM http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=63022

Income Inequality Grew Faster Under Obama, According To One Measure

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

SIGNYM

Friday, June 21, 2019 10:49 PM

Quote:

SECOND suffers from rich person's insanity. They think that because they're rich, and life hasn't thrown them a problem they can't buy their way out of in the last 7 years (7 years being the average emotional impact of memory), that they must be unusually gifted and wise.

Unfortunately, it's an all-too common insanity. Just look at our politicians from BOTH parties. - KIKI

1kiki, you got my psychology wrong. I could have easily gone from Houston's Veterans Hospital to Houston's Veterans Memorial Cemetery back in 1973...

How is that in any way responsive to KIKI's post, or mine? You made a bad decision, you got lucky. You took a chance, you got lucky. But rather than understand how luck played an important role in your success, you believe that it's all you ... your prespicacity. Your persistence. Your bootstrapping yourself.

Then you despise everyone else for being "stupid".

It's like successful people everywhere: They like to think they are the authors of their own success, that they, and they alone, control their own destiny. Singers who believe that their success is due only to their talent and persistence. Movies stars who believe that they were due their popularity. Rich people who believe they know the secret to success.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

REAVERFAN

Saturday, June 22, 2019 6:46 AM

SIGNYM

Saturday, June 22, 2019 9:57 AM

Dr Doom (Nouriel Roubini) predicted the 2008 bust when everyone thought he was nuts, which is how he earned his nickname.

Quote:
Dr.Doom Warns Of Imminent Sino-American Bust-Up After G-20
Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Nepal24Hours.com,

The nascent Sino-American cold war is the key source of uncertainty in today’s global economy. How the conflict plays out will affect consumer and asset markets of all kinds, as well as the trajectory of inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal conditions around the world. Escalation of the tensions between the world’s two largest economies could well produce a global recession and subsequent financial crisis by 2020, even if the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks pursue aggressive monetary easing.

Much, therefore, depends on whether the dispute does indeed evolve into a persistent state of economic and political conflict. In the short term, a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 28-29 is a key event to watch. A truce could leave tariffs frozen at the current level, while sparing the Chinese technology giant Huawei from the crippling sanctions that Trump has put forward; failure to reach an agreement could set off a progressive escalation, ultimately leading to the balkanization of the entire global economy.

JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?

Viewed broadly, there are three scenarios for how the situation might develop between now and the end of 2020, when the United States will hold its next presidential election.

One possibility is that Trump and Xi will find a truce or modus vivendi in Osaka, paving the way for a negotiated settlement toward the end of this year. On the trade front, the US wants China to buy more American goods, reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, open more financial and service sectors to foreign direct investment, and commit to maintaining currency stability and transparency with respect to foreign-exchange data.

On technology, the US is demanding that China strengthen intellectual-property protections, cease making the transfer of technology to Chinese firms a condition of market entry for US (and other) companies, and crack down on corporate cyber espionage and theft. A temporary deal could include any of the above, with the US offering medium-term (through the end of 2020, and possibly longer) exemptions to Chinese tech firms that use US components, semiconductors, and software. This would leave Huawei severely constrained, but not dead in the water.

The second possibility is a full-scale trade, tech, and cold war within the next 6-12 months. In this scenario, the US and China would adopt rapidly diverging positions after failing to successfully restart negotiations (with or without a truce). The US would follow through with import tariffs – starting at 10% but increasing to 25% – on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods that have so far been spared. And the Trump administration would pull the trigger on Huawei and other Chinese tech firms, barring them from purchasing components and software from US companies.

China, meanwhile, would take steps to protect its economy through macro-level stimulus, while retaliating against the US through measures that go beyond tariffs (such as expelling American firms). Huawei might survive within the Chinese market, but its growing global business would effectively be crippled, at least for the time being.

Beyond trade and technology, this scenario also implies increased geopolitical and military tensions. The possibility of some type of conflict over the East and South China Seas, Taiwan, North Korea, Xinjiang, Iran, or Hong Kong could not be ruled out.

Finally, in the third scenario, China and the US would fail to reach a deal on trade and technology, but they would forego rapid escalation. Instead of plunging into a total trade and technology war, the two powers might ratchet up their conflict more gradually. The US would impose new tariffs, but keep them at 10%, while renewing only tempo

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WISHIMAY

Saturday, June 22, 2019 10:58 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
1kiki, you got my psychology wrong. I could have easily gone from Houston's Veterans Hospital to Houston's Veterans Memorial Cemetery back in 1973, which makes the last 46 years all gravy on my mashed potatoes.

I'm not on here half as much as y'all.... What happened in 1973... and did you win the lottery or something?

I guess I never realized you are an old geezer

Hubbs wasn't even born 'til '74.

Who is older, you, Sig, or Kiki?

WISHIMAY

Saturday, June 22, 2019 11:04 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by captaincrunch:
More like Trump told "senior advisors" to tell the media, "He was ready to pull the trigger... really really really ready... but he decided not to at the last second" knowing/thinking Iranian leaders would hear that and be scared and grateful. "Whoa! That was close!" But nobody believes Trump any more.

No kidding. But it's just dumb enough his base will totally believe it. Can't beat the media into fellating him, might as well use it to entertain his Jerry Springer base...

WISHIMAY

Saturday, June 22, 2019 11:08 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

That's only because, as I've suspected all along and have said several times, because you hate yourself.

You really do have a delusion that everyone hates themselves, don't you??

I hate my health, and I hate being surrounded by goat-humping knuckle-draggers, but no one in this house hates themselves for who they are.

Maybe you should see a life coach or 12.

SIGNYM

Saturday, June 22, 2019 2:16 PM

Quote:
Iran And Trump On The Edge Of The Abyss
Authored by Alijah Magnier via EJMagnier.com,

Iran is pushing US President Donald Trump to the edge of the abyss, raising the level of tensions to new heights in the Middle East. After the sabotage of four tankers at al-Fujairah and the attack on the Aramco pipeline a month ago,

And fires set at Iranian oil ports, which the author fails to mention https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Explosions-Rock-Ira
ns-Largest-Port-As-Oil-Products-Catch-Fire.html

Quote:
and last week’s attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC – now categorized by the USA as a terrorist body) yesterday shot down a US Navy drone, sending two clear messages. The first message is that Iran is ready for an all-out war, no matter what the consequences. The second message is that Iran is aware that the US President has cornered himself; the embarrassing attack came a week after Trump launched his electoral campaign.

The third is that Iran doen't give a fuck what Tump does or doesn't do, or what "deal" he offers. They have said so directly.

If you stab someone with a knife and then you say you want talks, then the first thing you have to do is remove the knife,”
“We are always in favour of diplomacy and talks ... But talks need honesty. Trump’s call for direct talks is only for domestic consumption in America ahead of elections ... and to create chaos in Iran.”
America will regret imposing sanctions on Iran ... They’re already isolated in the world. They are imposing sanctions on Iranian children, patients and the nation,”
“There will be pressure because of sanctions but we will overcome this with unity,” he said." - Rouhani

Quote:
According to well-informed sources, Iran rejected a proposal by US intelligence – made via a third party – that Trump be allowed to bomb one, two or three clear objectives, to be chosen by Iran, so that both countries could appear to come out as winners and Trump could save face. Iran categorically rejected the offer and sent its reply: even an attack against an empty sandy beach in Iran would trigger a missile launch against US objectives in the Gulf.

Iran is not inclined to help Trump come down from the tree he has climbed and would rather keep him confused and cornered. Furthermore, Iran would love to see Trump fail to win a second term, and will do everything to help oust him from the White House at the end of his mandate in 2020.

Trump has a history of reneging on past deals so that he can "negotiate" new ones. He always starts with "maximum pressure". Unfortunately, Bolt-on and Pompous also have a history of torpedoing any possible deal that Trump might be working on.

Quote:
Moreover, Iran has established a joint operations room to inform all its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan

But not Russia or China

Quote:
of every step it is adopting in confronting the US in case of all-out war in the Middle East. Iran’s allies have increased their level of readiness and alert to the highest level; they will participate in the war from the moment it begins if necessary. According to sources, Iran’s allies will not hesitate to open fire against an already agreed on bank of objectives in a perfectly organised, orchestrated, synchronised and graduated response, anticipating a war that may last many months.

Even iIndia ... INDIA ... is getting into the act by sending its warships to protect Iranian assets. Trump has soured Modi on working with America by sanctioning India's source of oil (Iran), by threatening sanctions on India if it purchases the Russian S-400 defense system, and by imposing tariffs on goods from India (June 1).

Quote:
Sources confirmed that, in case of war, Iran aims to stop the flow of oil from the Middle East completely, not by targeting tankers but by hitting the sources of oil in every single Middle Eastern country, whether these countries are considered allies or enemies. The

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SECOND

Saturday, June 22, 2019 5:24 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by WISHIMAY:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
1kiki, you got my psychology wrong. I could have easily gone from Houston's Veterans Hospital to Houston's Veterans Memorial Cemetery back in 1973, which makes the last 46 years all gravy on my mashed potatoes.

I'm not on here half as much as y'all.... What happened in 1973... and did you win the lottery or something?

I guess I never realized you are an old geezer Hubbs wasn't even born 'til '74.

Who is older, you, Sig, or Kiki?

I am 67. What happened to me? Helicopter crash in Vietnam. Before that I learned something that remains true today: Americans, and especially Republicans, either voters, military officers, or politicians, don’t understand how to efficiently win a war, with the fewest dead on both sides. If Vietnam had been a massively multiplayer online role-playing game, the Republicans playing it, from President even down to colonels and captains, had chosen the most asinine game strategies. (I’m a relative of General Sherman and had opinions before volunteering about how to fight to win a civil war.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Tecumseh_Sherman

What about Trump? What mistake is he making playing a MMORPG called America Rules the World?

Ivo Daalder explains in a book: The Empty Throne - America's Abdication of Global Leadership
www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ivo-h-daalder/the-empty-throne/97815
41773851/

1) What's inside the book that might explain Trump and Iran?

Donald Trump wagered that the United States could secure the benefits of the world it created without bearing the burdens of leading it. That bet was unlikely to pay off. The world that America created after World War II was not inevitable. It was the result of conscious policy choices made in the pursuit of a vision of how cooperation and leadership, rather than domination and competition, could benefit the United States. Consumed with the costs of that rules-based order, many of which he exaggerated, Trump couldn’t appreciate its continuing and far greater benefits. Working with friends and allies multiplied American power far more often than constrained it. As a result, Washington, more so than any other country, got to be the rule maker in international politics and, with that role, won the power to shape outcomes to its liking. By choosing to act alone rather than mobilizing others in common cause, Trump was waging war on the world America had made. He was also committing the very mistake he had accused his predecessors of making: taking on burdens others could have shared and squandering American power in the process.

2) Why is Trump acting belligerently toward Iran? Because his public wants it. In tweets Ivo Daalder throws out some statistics about Americans attitudes:

https://twitter.com/IvoHDaalder/status/1139637545875193858

70 percent of Americans now favor the United States taking an active part in world affairs. Since @ChicagoCouncil polling on that question began in 1974, the only time that number has been higher was in 2002, just after 9/11.

Support for the US "taking an active part” includes the military, too. Increasing majorities of Americans support keeping long-term military bases in South Korea (74%), Japan (65%), Germany (60%), and Turkey (53%). Nearly half say the same for a base in Poland (47%).

Support for using US troops abroad in certain situations is strong and increasing as well. Majorities of Americans say they would support using US troops to defend Baltic NATO nations against Russia and allies in Asia against North Korea.

In fact, over a broad range of specific scenarios, majorities or pluralities of Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, say they would favor the use of US troops abroad.

Trump is terrible at playing the game "America Rules the World". He keeps flopping around, not knowing what to do next, but he won’t quit playing because people are watching and Trump hopes that he will s