Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!
POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, April 4, 2025 13:08
VIEWED: 120054
PAGE 84 of 119
Dow closed Thursday at 25,962.
Hasn't closed above 26K this month.
Today has dropped to 25,511 at one point.
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Dow closed today at 25,502.
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Dow closed today at 25,928.
Never did close above 26K in March.
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Dow closed today at 26,258. This is 2.1% off the Record All-Time High.
This is the first close above 26K since the end of February.
This is the first close above 26,180 since 7 November 2018. Day after Election.
This is the highest close since 9 October.
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Quote:Since 24 December I have sold out of the stocks.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alert!!
Alert!!
Alert!!Quote:Dow closed Friday at 22,445. This is 16.3% off the Record All-Time High.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The most important number to watch for is 22,803.
For those who have been trying to follow:
In the history of the Dow, this signals a Bear Market.
The last 2 times the Dow closed below 15% of it's current Record All-Time High were April 2001 and the end of January 2008.
If today's Market follows the historic model, then it will rebound for a bit, up to a range of 90% (24,145) to 95% (25,487) of the Record High. After that, it will fall down, most likely to 70% (18,778) or 40% (10,728) of the Record High.
In 2001, the bounce occurred during May and June, then declined in July. It got back down to 15% (10,000 Dow) in August. May is when I tried to get out, and I told my co-workers to do so as well. That was when the NYSE was a Pit, transfers done on paper.
In 2008, the transfers were done by computers, which are much faster than shouting humans. There was concern or uncertainty if the historic several months of bounce would be replaced with weeks or even days before the decline. I got out at the beginning of February 2008. But the bounce lasted thru Feb, March, and I think April, before the decline which ended on 9 March 2009.
So, if you believe in this model and the Bear has now been triggered, the Dow should bounce up 2-3,000 points, and then drop.
If you do not believe in this model and Bear has already been triggered before, then the Dow will continue to drop another 15-50% (4,025 - 13,414 points) from this point.
To be clear, I personally have no doubt that Bear Market is triggered. The only question is whether the bounce up is about to happen, or not -meaning the slide into Bear is already occurring right now.
So, the choice is this, for those in the Market: (1) if the bounce up is about to occur, you will be able to regain about 5-10% of your prior value, before selling and letting the stocks drop in value while you are not invested in them, or (2) sell now, absorbing the 16% loss as of Friday, and not worry about regaining 5-10% of value, but preventing further loss of surely at least another 15% of peak value and perhaps 50% more (which is 60% of current value).
After the Market bottoms out, you should then buy in at the cheap prices.
It looks like the Teen and Pothead Voters got their wish already, with the Market not waiting too long to respond.
In the past year, Dow has not closed below 23,500. Has not closed below 24,000 since May, until this past week.
I had considered that if the Dow closed above 26,200 then the historical model might be not being followed.
I have not seen this situation before. I am considering buying back into the Market. Which could be dumb, if the Market does go Bear. Or it could be smart but late, if the Market goes Bull.
Just posting this to keep followers up to date. Your own decisions and expectations may be in flux as well.
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I'd recommend staying out. Not because I have any crystal ball. You might well lose a lot of potential gains if you follow my advice.
I just wouldn't put any faith in historical performance anymore. Obama's huge bank bailouts and quantitative easing threw historical performance out the window. None of that money has helped any of the working class, and the standard of living has not increased for the average American. All of that money went into speculation in the DOW.
To further the argument that historical performance means nothing, we're now neck deep in the new global economy where a dog can fart in China and spin the whole thing out of control. There is less ability to predict the future now than there ever was.
Where I work, everything is in chaos. Management is trying to hold it together, but the Six Sigma men have come 'a knockin'. I've seen this all before twice in my lifetime. The management of my store have had their cushy jobs for 20 to 30 years and have been completely insulated from this until now. I honestly would be quite surprised if any of them remain with the company by this time next year.
One of the management who I think quite highly of, was telling me all of the changes happening at his level. They removed nearly all of the computers from the entire store and gave the management smartphones; the idea being that a manger should never be sitting in the office and always be out on the floor. He said, "we've all got to adapt or die". I know he's shitting bricks right now and is probably so far in debt that losing his job would be akin to dying in a lot of ways, and I like the guy, so I refrained from telling him that "well.. you've got to adapt or die. All I have to do is find another shitty part time job if I don't like what's coming.".
Things aren't going to be getting any better. They're only bound to get worse. The DOW Jones is not at all a reflection of how well businesses and commerce in general are doing.
My advice to everybody would be to start downsizing, focusing on making sure that you have the "needs" covered for you and yours and learn live without the "wants", before they're not even an option anymore.
There's a storm on the horizon.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:Yes, there has been a concern that Obamanomics has broken the historical patterns.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'd recommend staying out. Not because I have any crystal ball. You might well lose a lot of potential gains if you follow my advice.
I just wouldn't put any faith in historical performance anymore. Obama's huge bank bailouts and quantitative easing threw historical performance out the window. None of that money has helped any of the working class, and the standard of living has not increased for the average American. All of that money went into speculation in the DOW.
To further the argument that historical performance means nothing, we're now neck deep in the new global economy where a dog can fart in China and spin the whole thing out of control. There is less ability to predict the future now than there ever was.
Where I work, everything is in chaos. Management is trying to hold it together, but the Six Sigma men have come 'a knockin'. I've seen this all before twice in my lifetime. The management of my store have had their cushy jobs for 20 to 30 years and have been completely insulated from this until now. I honestly would be quite surprised if any of them remain with the company by this time next year.
One of the management who I think quite highly of, was telling me all of the changes happening at his level. They removed nearly all of the computers from the entire store and gave the management smartphones; the idea being that a manger should never be sitting in the office and always be out on the floor. He said, "we've all got to adapt or die". I know he's shitting bricks right now and is probably so far in debt that losing his job would be akin to dying in a lot of ways, and I like the guy, so I refrained from telling him that "well.. you've got to adapt or die. All I have to do is find another shitty part time job if I don't like what's coming.".
Things aren't going to be getting any better. They're only bound to get worse. The DOW Jones is not at all a reflection of how well businesses and commerce in general are doing.
My advice to everybody would be to start downsizing, focusing on making sure that you have the "needs" covered for you and yours and learn live without the "wants", before they're not even an option anymore.
There's a storm on the horizon.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
Been a bit since you updated us on your workplace. Harder to keep track when you divide up the posts between threads.
You may have heard that Shopko has failed, closing every single store.
I also noticed OfficeMax/OfficeDepot is closing stores.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Yes, there has been a concern that Obamanomics has broken the historical patterns.
Been a bit since you updated us on your workplace. Harder to keep track when you divide up the posts between threads.
You may have heard that Shopko has failed, closing every single store.
I also noticed OfficeMax/OfficeDepot is closing stores.
Yeah. I haven't talked about work much recently, but everything has been in flux for a few months now. I like to maintain a positive outlook on things, and really talking about work when I'm not there isn't good for that.
I also don't want to be talking too much about things because I'm hesitant to say anything that would indicate where I do work. I don't know who gives the massive amount of views of some of our threads here, considering that there are only a dozen or so posters these days. I don't know the in's and outs of the rules and regulations talking about the goings on in the workplace on social media, and don't want to bring any unnecessary complications to my life by overstepping any of them needlessly.
They've done such a great job keeping things a secret from the peons that nobody really knows whats going on. Hell, for all I know, I might show up to work one night and the doors are closed for good. That thought has been stuck in the back of my mind every time I go back to work for a few months now.
Most of the people I work with have never been through this or seen anything like this first hand. They're either old dogs on top who have never had anything to worry about before, they're low level guys and gals around my age or a little older who have just been there forever and never really had any other ambitions, or they're young'ns who don't have much other job experience.
So I've tended to keep most of this to myself. I'm not helping anybody I work with on any level by sharing my prior experiences with this. Nothing I say could change things for the better for anybody, and I don't get any personal satisfaction for being the bearer of bad news.
All I can do at this point is just try to maintain a positive attitude about it all, clock in on time, try not to take work home with me and hope for the best.
I feel bad for those who have to "adapt or die". I honestly do. I'm so lucky that I did right and don't really have to worry about anything. I'm just a little sad when I think that I finally found something I really enjoy doing and it might not be around for much longer.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Dow closed today at 26,384. This is 1.7% off the Record All-Time High on 4 October.
This is the highest close since 9 October.
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Dow closed today at 26,412. This is 1.6% off the Record All-Time High.
This is the 12th highest Close in history.
This is a worrisome development. This is most likely going to continue to climb, to a new Record All-Time High. That's what I think.
I have already bought back in to the Market, meaning I missed out on at least 5% of gains.
This seems to confirm that the historical pattern, model, template has been broken. There are other factors indicating whether the Markets will gain or lose. Including Investor Sentiment, where investors feeling the Market will gain means the Market will fall, and vice versa. But this was the sole model that I used to avoid losses in 2001 and 2008.
It is possible that Obamanomics merely distorted the patterns, stretched out the figures from extended stagnation. But going forward from this point, we won't know what the new pattern will be like.
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