Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!

POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, April 4, 2025 13:08
VIEWED: 120054
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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, February 14, 2019 11:18 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 22,878. This is 14.7% off the Record All-Time High.

All 3 major indices gained either 5% or almost 6% today.
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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alert!!

Alert!!

Alert!!

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The most important number to watch for is 22,803.
Dow closed Friday at 22,445. This is 16.3% off the Record All-Time High.

For those who have been trying to follow:
In the history of the Dow, this signals a Bear Market.
The last 2 times the Dow closed below 15% of it's current Record All-Time High were April 2001 and the end of January 2008.

If today's Market follows the historic model, then it will rebound for a bit, up to a range of 90% (24,145) to 95% (25,487) of the Record High. After that, it will fall down, most likely to 70% (18,778) or 40% (10,728) of the Record High.

In 2001, the bounce occurred during May and June, then declined in July. It got back down to 15% (10,000 Dow) in August. May is when I tried to get out, and I told my co-workers to do so as well. That was when the NYSE was a Pit, transfers done on paper.
In 2008, the transfers were done by computers, which are much faster than shouting humans. There was concern or uncertainty if the historic several months of bounce would be replaced with weeks or even days before the decline. I got out at the beginning of February 2008. But the bounce lasted thru Feb, March, and I think April, before the decline which ended on 9 March 2009.

So, if you believe in this model and the Bear has now been triggered, the Dow should bounce up 2-3,000 points, and then drop.
If you do not believe in this model and Bear has already been triggered before, then the Dow will continue to drop another 15-50% (4,025 - 13,414 points) from this point.

To be clear, I personally have no doubt that Bear Market is triggered. The only question is whether the bounce up is about to happen, or not -meaning the slide into Bear is already occurring right now.

So, the choice is this, for those in the Market: (1) if the bounce up is about to occur, you will be able to regain about 5-10% of your prior value, before selling and letting the stocks drop in value while you are not invested in them, or (2) sell now, absorbing the 16% loss as of Friday, and not worry about regaining 5-10% of value, but preventing further loss of surely at least another 15% of peak value and perhaps 50% more (which is 60% of current value).

After the Market bottoms out, you should then buy in at the cheap prices.

It looks like the Teen and Pothead Voters got their wish already, with the Market not waiting too long to respond.

In the past year, Dow has not closed below 23,500. Has not closed below 24,000 since May, until this past week.
There was some concern that Obamanomics had broken the historical model.

But today confirms the bounce, and conforms to the historical model.

To be clear, I have no doubt that Bear Market has been triggered. I do not know if the current bounce will get to 25,500 or if it will last for a couple months, weeks, or days.
When Dow gets to 24,200 I will transfer out of stocks. This means that if the Market drops 15-50%, I will avoid that loss. Also, if the Market does not drop but achieves a new Record All-Time High, then I will miss out on that 11% gain. If that is the case, I will buy back in at the new Record All-Time High.
Dow closed today at 24,207. This is 9.8% off the Record All-Time High.

There we go. This is my cue.
Dow closed today at 24,999. This bounce has lasted weeks. 8 weeks since 21 December.

Anybody think it will get to 25,500?

It did.
Dow closed Wednesday at 25,543. This is 4.8% off the Record All-Time High.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Thursday, February 14, 2019 5:32 PM

Meh...

They just eliminated the HR department where I work this week. The "old timers" are shitting themselves right now because of how much more they get paid then the new guys like me. Tons of policy changes have just happened that seem designed just to catch people in a fireable offense.

I'm not worried about it, since I'm the best there is and I make the absolute minimum pay. I don't blame the others for being worried though. There's no way they'll make that kind of money they're making right now anywhere else.

The economy sucks. Nobody gives a shit about your DOW.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, February 16, 2019 2:12 PM

Dow closed Friday at 25,883. This is 3.5% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, February 21, 2019 7:53 AM

Dow closed today at 25,954. This is 3.3% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, February 23, 2019 12:26 PM

Dow closed Friday at 26,031. This is 3.0% off the Record All-Time High.

This is the first close above 26K since about 7 November. The second since 9 October.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, February 26, 2019 5:09 AM

Dow closed today at 26,091. This is 2.7% off the Record All-Time High.

It peaked at 26,241 during the session.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, March 6, 2019 10:14 PM

Dow closed Monday at 25,819. This is 3.8% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, March 7, 2019 8:59 AM

Dow closed today at 25,673. This is 4.3% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, March 8, 2019 6:54 AM

Dow closed today at 25,473. This is 5.1% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, March 12, 2019 8:15 AM

Dow closed today at 25,650.

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