Real World Event Discussions

Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!

POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, April 4, 2025 13:08
VIEWED: 120054
PAGE 81 of 119

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, January 5, 2019 6:57 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
JSF, I understand what you're saying: You need to "time the market" and pick the fast-risers and then switch to the "slow risers" after having make your investment at or near bottom.

Just a couple of comments and questions- wondering about your response.

1) Why pick a fund that will drop "only" 15% when you can have your $$$ in a guaranteed account that will lose no money at all? May as well have your money is a bank account which will only lose about 2% per year (inflation) and then buy stocks at an opportune time.

2) The stocks that I thought about buying the last financial lockup were bank stocks, since they took a real beating. Any reason not to buy bank stocks again?

3) These cycles have a tendency to run for 15 years. So the drop will be sudden but the rise will overall be much slower. A doubling or tripling of value over 15 years is great, but it's still only 10-15% per year ... which is great(!) but needs to be kept in perspective. So don't expect to double your money in three years. Agreed?

4) There are other investment classes "out there" besides stocks, including bonds, real estate/rental property/ farmland, currencies, precious metals, and commodities. (At this point I would not recommend buying stocks, real estate, or bonds until after a significant correction.)

I worry that we may not be seeing a "usual" stock market crash but that we may be moving into an entirely different investment realm of currency crisis, which will be signalled by a yield inversion. PHYSICAL DELIVERED GOLD (not "paper gold" or gold mining stocks) is the normal safe-haven for a currency crisis, but purchasing depressed actual foreign currency/bonds (eg Turkish lira/bonds) may be a good alternate strategy. Thoughts?

5) You seem reluctant to name funds names. It sure would be nice if you could let us in on the actual results of all of that research!
5. Are you or kiki Government Employees, or is TSP your Retirement Program? No need to look it up, you would know if it was.

Most of the funds I checked I don't have the info. I might have some, from the family of about 170 after being reduced from about 450. These were from the Growth group, I think: JETSX, dodgx, jfivx, fcntx. For not losing during Bear: dipsx. Flmvx, jecix were rapid rebounders following deep loss. Ugsdx, cgtax were not available to us. Jilcx, pkc or pkcix would have been desirable, but the Union had removed them from our access.

1. Retirement Accounts. I think I was focusing on Tax-Deferred accounts, like 401K. If you can find funds allowed (by Law, or IRS) in a Retirement Account, which cost no fees to transfer among them, I would say go for it. The Fund Families giving the biggest kickbacks to companies have quite restrictive fund variety and seem heavily reliant upon lame Stock Funds.
Most companies offering "Matching" contributions require they go into these fund families, they don't just go into your bank account. Once they go into the fund of your choice, you control the transfers from one fund to another.
So naming these highly restrictive fund names would likely not apply to anybody else, since they would not have those fund names available.

2. Same as #1, I think. Unless I am misunderstanding, or you elaborate further.

3. I see many claim that the cycles are normally 7-8 years. I have no need to disagree there.
In 2001 the Dow bounced up to around 11,000 in May or June, back down to 10,000 in August, and then bottomed out in 2002 or maybe 2003. IIRC that was around 7,300ish. Market returned to 12,000 (new Record All-Time High) around 2005 or 2006, I think. So that is 2-4 years to return to prior levels. It dropped about 39%, and then gained 164% from the low point.
In 2007, Dow peaked at 14,000 in October, at the onset of the Rock-The-Vote Recession. It slid down to about 4,900 on 9 March 2009. This

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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, January 9, 2019 2:21 AM

Dow closed yesterday at 23,531.

Dow closed today at 23,787. This is 11.3% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, January 10, 2019 10:45 AM

Dow closed today at 23,873. This is 11.0% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, January 11, 2019 2:19 AM

Dow closed today at 24,001. This is 10.5% off the Record All-Time High.

Not quite there yet.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, January 17, 2019 9:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 22,878. This is 14.7% off the Record All-Time High.

All 3 major indices gained either 5% or almost 6% today.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alert!!

Alert!!

Alert!!

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The most important number to watch for is 22,803.
Dow closed Friday at 22,445. This is 16.3% off the Record All-Time High.

For those who have been trying to follow:
In the history of the Dow, this signals a Bear Market.
The last 2 times the Dow closed below 15% of it's current Record All-Time High were April 2001 and the end of January 2008.

If today's Market follows the historic model, then it will rebound for a bit, up to a range of 90% (24,145) to 95% (25,487) of the Record High. After that, it will fall down, most likely to 70% (18,778) or 40% (10,728) of the Record High.

In 2001, the bounce occurred during May and June, then declined in July. It got back down to 15% (10,000 Dow) in August. May is when I tried to get out, and I told my co-workers to do so as well. That was when the NYSE was a Pit, transfers done on paper.
In 2008, the transfers were done by computers, which are much faster than shouting humans. There was concern or uncertainty if the historic several months of bounce would be replaced with weeks or even days before the decline. I got out at the beginning of February 2008. But the bounce lasted thru Feb, March, and I think April, before the decline which ended on 9 March 2009.

So, if you believe in this model and the Bear has now been triggered, the Dow should bounce up 2-3,000 points, and then drop.
If you do not believe in this model and Bear has already been triggered before, then the Dow will continue to drop another 15-50% (4,025 - 13,414 points) from this point.

To be clear, I personally have no doubt that Bear Market is triggered. The only question is whether the bounce up is about to happen, or not -meaning the slide into Bear is already occurring right now.

So, the choice is this, for those in the Market: (1) if the bounce up is about to occur, you will be able to regain about 5-10% of your prior value, before selling and letting the stocks drop in value while you are not invested in them, or (2) sell now, absorbing the 16% loss as of Friday, and not worry about regaining 5-10% of value, but preventing further loss of surely at least another 15% of peak value and perhaps 50% more (which is 60% of current value).

After the Market bottoms out, you should then buy in at the cheap prices.

It looks like the Teen and Pothead Voters got their wish already, with the Market not waiting too long to respond.

In the past year, Dow has not closed below 23,500. Has not closed below 24,000 since May, until this past week.
There was some concern that Obamanomics had broken the historical model.

But today confirms the bounce, and conforms to the historical model.

To be clear, I have no doubt that Bear Market has been triggered. I do not know if the current bounce will get to 25,500 or if it will last for a couple months, weeks, or days.
When Dow gets to 24,200 I will transfer out of stocks. This means that if the Market drops 15-50%, I will avoid that loss. Also, if the Market does not drop but achieves a new Record All-Time High, then I will miss out on that 11% gain. If that is the case, I will buy back in at the new Record All-Time High.

Dow closed today at 24,207. This is 9.8% off the Record All-Time High.

There we go. This is my cue.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Thursday, January 17, 2019 6:19 PM

Meh... It's all Monopoly money at the end of the day. Good luck.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, January 20, 2019 9:02 PM

Dow closed Thursday at 24,370.

Dow closed Friday at 24,706. This is 7.9% off the Record All-Time High.

The Market seems to be behaving in accordance with the historical model, as I have explained.
Why do I suspect KPOs Libtard Predictions thread will not recognize that?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, January 26, 2019 5:25 AM

Dow closed today at 24,737. This is 7.8% off the Record All-Time High.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, January 29, 2019 5:16 AM

Dow closed today at 24,528.

Like the first trading day of last week, a drop. Although more than 400 points down during the session, ended up only 208 down.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, January 31, 2019 4:54 AM

Dow closed today at 25,014. This is 6.8% off the Record All-Time High.

This is the highest close since 4 December, and the only Close above 25K since then.