Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!
POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, April 4, 2025 13:08
VIEWED: 120054
PAGE 79 of 119
Jo, Putin-paranoia is infecting your every post. Russia is buying GOLD, not American stocks or Treasuries!
There are several possible reasons for the big jump in price (and I think all apply)
1) Volume was VERY light. Therefore, a relatively small number of purchases can really swing the price.
2) Much trading is done by trading algorithms ... trading programs ... developed by investment banks like Goldman Sachs. The actual software is a proprietary secret, but they not only scan headlines but response to certain thresholds like price drops, and in general they turn small changes into big changes because they all kind of pile on.
3) Pension funds, under pressure to reach that magical 7-8% which will make their future obligations make sense, put in $64 billion dollars-worth of "buy" orders today as they attempted to re-balance their portfolios before the beginning of the next year. (I personally think it's a bad mistake, but what the hell do I know?)
I think we can learn from periodicity if we can figure out what it means. So I'm just curious whether any pattern at all can be discerned from the charts.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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Quote:That may be true, but now you're talking about day-trading, not "timing the market". You yourself said that you don't need to be to the right exact day for timing the market; what you implied was that it will work out if you get the big trends right.
For instance, my best gain was probably 12% in 2 trading days, or 4 calendar days.- JSF
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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Quote:This might be semantics.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:Quote:That may be true, but now you're talking about day-trading, not "timing the market". You yourself said that you don't need to be to the right exact day for timing the market; what you implied was that it will work out if you get the big trends right.
For instance, my best gain was probably 12% in 2 trading days, or 4 calendar days.- JSF
When I refer to Day Trading, I am referring to intraday trading. Making trades in the middle of the trading day, and possibly many trades in one trading session. I am not aware of any 401K programs which allow this, most of these fund families seem to only do Close of Business trades each day.
Because of the words in the phrase "Day Trader" it could logically be interpreted to mean trading from day to day. I have not used this meaning. I personally would call this Market Timing in the microcosm, and would be less critical than the larger. Riding the Bull Markets and avoiding the Bear Markets would be what I would call Market Timing in the macrocosm, and is far more critical. They use different tactics, strategies, identifiers, etc. You would be correct that I have not clearly differentiated between, or specified between the 2, and I am sorry for the confusion - which I assume more than just you share.
However, going with only the macrocosm, using data which is rounded off, or only at end of a calendar month, or calendar year, is useless when looking for the identifiers. That last graph you posted is far more useful (assuming accuracy). It shows the specific dates and high points, low points, instead of the useless end-of-month data. Once you have found the identifiers, the specific day of trade/transfer is not critical in the macrocosm strategy. For instance, in 2001 the Bear Trigger occurred in April, but I was busy. When I caught up in May or June, the data from April was still available, and I could see it had occurred, and warned my coworkers and tried to change my own funds. But now, all of that critically pertinent data is absent from almost all of the links you posted, except that last graph - which seems to have done it well.
Again, genuinely sorry for the confusion. In both microcosm and macrocosm, I have only heard them referred to as Market Timing, although it would be handy if they had separate monikers. But so many mushheads deny that Market Timing exists, let alone understand the nuances, which you have clearly pointed out as an issue.
I consider intraday trading to be a different class, because those trades almost certainly are incurring fees and penalties, applicable to each stock and each trade. And those costs must be included in the decisions to buy or sell.
In mutual funds which trade at Close of Business, and with millions of "investors" involved, the gobs of transfers/trades scheduled during the whole day can be aggregated into far lesser fees (usually included as "admin costs").
I hope that all helps.
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Sorry for the delay, but I have completed the response of the last 2 charts.
If you plan to discuss, perhaps it would help if we establish some clear definitions.
I can start by specifying what I consider to be key milestones. I will leave blank every other possible label, in case you wish to add some.
A. The Date and Level/Value at Close of Business of the "current" or last Record All-Time High.
C. The same for the Bear Market trigger.
E. The same for the return to only 10% off the Record All-Time High.
G. The same for the High Point of this post-trigger bounce.
I. The same for when it falls again below the mark of 15% off the Record All-Time High.
K. The same for when the drop gets within 5% of the deepest Low Point of the Bear.
M. The same for the maximum Low Point of the Bear.
O. The same for when the Market regains to the level of 10% of the Record All-Time High.
Q. The same for when the Market regains or surpasses the prior Record All-Time High, setting a new Record All-Time High.
S. The same for the next (or last) Record All-Time High before suffering a 15% drop from that High. Many new Highs will occur between Q. and S.
For the purpose of quibbling about "doubling" our fund value, the period from M. to Q. would be what I consider pertinent, or even from M. to S.
I have seen various other narratives define the time spans as starting at either A. or G. These 2 milestones could be years apart. In 2001 they were 13 or 18 months apart, depending upon your source.
For the big trend strategy, the rest could be considered noise. For instance, all of 2017 was noise. And all of 2014-2016 was noise. From the 26,616 High on 26 Jan 2018 until the new High of 26,828 in Sept or Oct, it was all noise.
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Instead of reposting it, I have completed my post regarding the Dow Close price from the afternoon.
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Dow closed Thursday at 23,138. Gain of more than 1% for the day. This is 13.8% off the Record All-Time High.
The last 2 days have ended the sessions with skyrockets.
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Dow closed Friday at 24,062.
Dow closed today at 23,327. This is 13.0% off the Record All-Time High.
Another 1% gain today.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed Friday at 24,062.
Dow closed today at 23,327. This is 13.0% off the Record All-Time High.
Another 1% gain today.
US stocks post worst year in a decade as the S&P 500 falls more than 6% in 2018
Stocks had a rough 2018 — Here's what five strategists say to expect in 2019
Stocks had a rough 2018 — Here's what five strategists say to expect in 2019
1 Hour Ago | 03:57
Wall Street concluded a tumultuous 2018 on Monday as the major stock indexes posted their worst yearly performances since the financial crisis.
After solid gains on Monday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 6.2 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, for 2018. Both indexes logged in their biggest annual losses since 2008, when they plunged 38.5 percent and 33.8 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.9 percent in 2018, its worst year in a decade, when it dropped 40 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for the first time in three years, while the Nasdaq snapped a six-year winning streak. 2018 was a year fraught with volatility, characterized by record highs and sharp reversals. This year also marks the first time ever the S&P 500 posts a decline after rising in the first three quarters.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/stock-market-wall-street-stocks-eye-us
-china-trade-talks.html
Way to go donnie...
T
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Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:5. Are you or kiki Government Employees, or is TSP your Retirement Program? No need to look it up, you would know if it was.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
JSF, I understand what you're saying: You need to "time the market" and pick the fast-risers and then switch to the "slow risers" after having make your investment at or near bottom.
Just a couple of comments and questions- wondering about your response.
1) Why pick a fund that will drop "only" 15% when you can have your $$$ in a guaranteed account that will lose no money at all? May as well have your money is a bank account which will only lose about 2% per year (inflation) and then buy stocks at an opportune time.
2) The stocks that I thought about buying the last financial lockup were bank stocks, since they took a real beating. Any reason not to buy bank stocks again?
3) These cycles have a tendency to run for 15 years. So the drop will be sudden but the rise will overall be much slower. A doubling or tripling of value over 15 years is great, but it's still only 10-15% per year ... which is great(!) but needs to be kept in perspective. So don't expect to double your money in three years. Agreed?
4) There are other investment classes "out there" besides stocks, including bonds, real estate/rental property/ farmland, currencies, precious metals, and commodities. (At this point I would not recommend buying stocks, real estate, or bonds until after a significant correction.)
I worry that we may not be seeing a "usual" stock market crash but that we may be moving into an entirely different investment realm of currency crisis, which will be signalled by a yield inversion. PHYSICAL DELIVERED GOLD (not "paper gold" or gold mining stocks) is the normal safe-haven for a currency crisis, but purchasing depressed actual foreign currency/bonds (eg Turkish lira/bonds) may be a good alternate strategy. Thoughts?
5) You seem reluctant to name funds names. It sure would be nice if you could let us in on the actual results of all of that research!
Most of the funds I checked I don't have the info. I might have some, from the family of about 170 after being reduced from about 450. These were from the Growth group, I think: JETSX, dodgx, jfivx, fcntx. For not losing during Bear: dipsx. Flmvx, jecix were rapid rebounders following deep loss. Ugsdx, cgtax were not available to us. Jilcx, pkc or pkcix would have been desirable, but the Union had removed them from our access.
1. Retirement Accounts. I think I was focusing on Tax-Deferred accounts, like 401K. If you can find funds allowed (by Law, or IRS) in a Retirement Account, which cost no fees to transfer among them, I would say go for it. The Fund Families giving the biggest kickbacks to companies have quite restrictive fund variety and seem heavily reliant upon lame Stock Funds.
Most companies offering "Matching" contributions require they go into these fund families, they don't just go into your bank account. Once they go into the fund of your choice, you control the transfers from one fund to another.
So naming these highly restrictive fund names would likely not apply to anybody else, since they would not have those fund names available.
2. Same as #1, I think. Unless I am misunderstanding, or you elaborate further.
3. I see many claim that the cycles are normally 7-8 years. I have no need to disagree there.
In 2001 the Dow bounced up to around 11,000 in May or June, back down to 10,000 in August, and then bottomed out in 2002 or maybe 2003. IIRC that was around 7,300ish. Market returned to 12,000 (new Record All-Time High) around 2005 or 2006, I think. So that is 2-4 years to return to prior levels. It dropped about 39%, and then gained 164% from the low point.
In 2007, Dow peaked at 14,000 in October, at the onset of the Rock-The-Vote Recession. It slid down to about 4,900 on 9 March 2009. This isNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
You know anything about 529 plans, JSF?
I was thinking of starting one for my niece.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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