Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!
POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, April 4, 2025 13:08
VIEWED: 120054
PAGE 77 of 119
Dow closed today at 23,592. This is 12.1% off the Record All-Time High.
With voters deciding to wreck the Economy, maybe the Market is responding more quickly than the last time (2006). The last time, with the Rock-The-Vote Election to wreck the Economy, the Market waited 11 months, until the beginning of the new Congress first Budget, FY2008 in October 2007. But that Market had 5 years of steam under it, and was still powered by 25 years of Reaganomics. But this time, it's only been 2 years since the Market was released from the Obamanomics disaster, and it can be argued that Reaganomics was partly dismantled during Obamanomics. So this could be the Market response in much quicker timeframe, the voters quite insistent upon a poor economy.
But it is still not down to the levels of Obamanomics.
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Earth to JSF! Chek your oxyjen level!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/17/malaysia-files-crim
inal-charges-against-goldman-sachs-after-fund-looted-billion/?utm_term=.04141ba861bd
Remember this:
Quote:
I'm writing this in January 2017, a week before Trump's inauguration, feeling like we are about to reboot the
first decade of this millenium. Reboot as in the bigger bolder faster turbocharged 4K HD on steroids
with a sparkling drop of retzin version! (in case you aren't getting it - that means bad. VERY bad.)
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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.7532020.com .
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Dow closed Wednesday at 23,323. There was a 400 point drop right after The Fed announced the Rate Hike.
Dow closed today at 22,859. This is 14.8% off the Record All-Time High.
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Calling for predictionz! How low do you think it will go?
I say 17,500.
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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.7532020.com .
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Alert!!
Alert!!
Alert!!
Quote:Dow closed Friday at 22,445. This is 16.3% off the Record All-Time High.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The most important number to watch for is 22,803.
For those who have been trying to follow:
In the history of the Dow, this signals a Bear Market.
The last 2 times the Dow closed below 15% of it's current Record All-Time High were April 2001 and the end of January 2008.
If today's Market follows the historic model, then it will rebound for a bit, up to a range of 90% (24,145) to 95% (25,487) of the Record High. After that, it will fall down, most likely to 70% (18,778) or 40% (10,728) of the Record High.
In 2001, the bounce occurred during May and June, then declined in July. It got back down to 15% (10,000 Dow) in August. May is when I tried to get out, and I told my co-workers to do so as well. That was when the NYSE was a Pit, transfers done on paper.
In 2008, the transfers were done by computers, which are much faster than shouting humans. There was concern or uncertainty if the historic several months of bounce would be replaced with weeks or even days before the decline. I got out at the beginning of February 2008. But the bounce lasted thru Feb, March, and I think April, before the decline which ended on 9 March 2009.
So, if you believe in this model and the Bear has now been triggered, the Dow should bounce up 2-3,000 points, and then drop.
If you do not believe in this model and Bear has already been triggered before, then the Dow will continue to drop another 15-50% (4,025 - 13,414 points) from this point.
To be clear, I personally have no doubt that Bear Market is triggered. The only question is whether the bounce up is about to happen, or not -meaning the slide into Bear is already occurring right now.
So, the choice is this, for those in the Market: (1) if the bounce up is about to occur, you will be able to regain about 5-10% of your prior value, before selling and letting the stocks drop in value while you are not invested in them, or (2) sell now, absorbing the 16% loss as of Friday, and not worry about regaining 5-10% of value, but preventing further loss of surely at least another 15% of peak value and perhaps 50% more (which is 60% of current value).
After the Market bottoms out, you should then buy in at the cheap prices.
It looks like the Teen and Pothead Voters got their wish already, with the Market not waiting too long to respond.
In the past year, Dow has not closed below 23,500. Has not closed below 24,000 since May, until this past week.
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Dow closed today at 21,792 after a half day of trading. This is 18.8% off the Record All-Time High.
Fell about 500 in the final 2 hours.
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A little oddity with the newz - Lately they hav not been saying or showing the number. They say how much it dropped and the % for the day, but not wut it ended at. It wuz alwayz the main thing befor.
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DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early
http://www.7532020.com .
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Quote:NPR does the same thing, but they've ALWAYS reported that way, which I find kind of stupid.
A little oddity with the newz - Lately they hav not been saying or showing the number. They say how much it dropped and the % for the day, but not wut it ended at. It wuz alwayz the main thing befor.
People have been saying for years that the stock market (also real estate) are bubbles supported by low-low-low interest rates. Raise the rates ... dunk the stock and real estate markets. As predictable as the sun rising in the east.
It's hard to predict how low the stock markets can go because they're being controlled by "algos", which don't react like humans. The algos may decide to BTFD (buy the f&cking dip) or capitulate completely at levels that HUMANS don't react to.
I suppose we could take a guess if we knew how much money going into the stock market was BORROWED money, but markets always overshoot anyway, so ... down by 35%?
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND
America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .
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Why do investors seem to be losing their what-me-worry attitude? It’s not so much what Trump is doing, as what he might do in the future — or, perhaps even more important, what he might not do.
The truth is that most of the time, presidential actions don’t matter much for the economy; short-term economic management is mainly up to the Fed. But when bad things happen, we do need the White House to step up. In 2008 and 2009, it mattered a lot that officials of both the outgoing Bush administration and the incoming Obama administration responded competently and intelligently to the financial crisis.
Unfortunately, there’s no reason to expect a comparable degree of competence if something goes wrong again.
How would this administration team cope with a real economic setback, whatever its source? Would Trump look for solutions, or refuse to accept responsibility and focus mainly on blaming other people? Would his Treasury secretary and chief economic advisers coolly analyze the problem and formulate a course of action, or would they respond with a combination of sycophancy to the boss and denials that anything was wrong? What do you think? Sorry, investors, but there is no sanity clause. Merry Christmas.
www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/trump-economy-stock-market.html
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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6ix, did you find a fund to weather the Bear Market?
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I have been trying to get back to this for 2 weeks, and I am sorry for the delay. I was not ignoring of avoiding it, but would have been timed better a couple days earlier.
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.
You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.
Here's what I do know.
I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.
I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.
Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.
Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.
My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.
The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.
If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
I will try to get this all in one post.
You will need to look for 2 kinds of funds. Hopefully you can find 2-4 candidates for each of the 2 kinds. One family of funds I looked at for friends had been reduced to about 170 funds (from 450ish), and I found 2 of one kind and 4 of the other. IIRC none of those was in the category they should have been in.
Sorry, but you will actually need to evaluate each one, I can almost guarantee just reading the prospectus and summary or rating will not work. I have found some of the very best funds in the "Moderate" and also "low" risk categories. One rule of thumb (which you need to ignore) is that the most aggressive Growth is by definition more volatile and risky. The reverse is not true. Being risky does not guarantee high growth. Some funds just lose money all the time, and only being Classified as aggressive do they seem like the risk is worth it, but it is not, there is no correlation. Once you look at they like I explain, you will find the prospectus humorous on many.
You are looking to take advantage of a Bear Market cycle. The last one was in 2008, following a peak in October 2007 and ending the slide in March 2009. The last before that was 2001, following a peak in 1st Quarter 2000, then starting Bear around April 2001, and already at least 17% down before 9/11.
You need to know how well a fund is likely to, or you hope it will, perform in the next Bear Market cycle.
Many people will tell you that what your stated goal is, IS NOT POSSIBLE. It is called Market Timing, and today's Financially Illiterate Fiscal Professionals have been spoon-fed the mantra that Market Timing does not exist, does not work, will not ever work, no matter how many savvy Market Timers implement it each time successfully.
Standard Disclaimer is past performance is not indicative of future results. Which is technically and legally correct. But you and I bothNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
