Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!

POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, April 4, 2025 13:08
VIEWED: 120054
PAGE 71 of 119

Dow currently trading below 25K.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although a lot of people would be relieved if it drops to 22,623 before rebounding.


Perhaps I should point out, here in the moment: these are the days of making the largest gains in funds. Buying at a discount of 6% can get an easy gain on bounce back, in a matter of days instead of the 55 days it recently took to scale this mountain of stock value.
And if it can drop to 22,623 then the rebound can only be reasonably expected to be 5% to 10% of the all-time high, so buying at the end of Monday could still result in a loss.
But regardless, whenever the market hits the best bargain price, that is when the common trader has the greatest opportunity to grow their funds. Although this volatility is just noise, the potential for growth is far greater than days of a couple hundred point gains.

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This was posted on 6 Feb. I should try to post it at top of page for convenience, since a lot of noise has been posted since then.

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Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alright, so let's take a moment to explore the scenario if the Libtard view actually wasn't a delusion.

Their premise is that the real actual value of the Market is represented by Dow 15,000.
So then 26,616 is an actual overevaluation of 11,616 - or 177% of the true value. That may well be a historical record.
So if Dow goes no higher than that during this cycle, then a drop to 22,623 will signal onset of a Bear Market cycle. The rebound will go to about 23,954 - 25,285 range and then drop. A Bear Market drop always bottoms far below the true value of a stock, so the Dow would at this point bottom out around 8,000 - 12,000. The would represent a drop of 55% - 70%. Such a large drop gives investors plenty of time or range to recognize the drop and exit their stocks, before the bottom price is available to buy back in for massive gains - doubling or tripling your fund value. Unless the Libtard duplicates 2008 and keeps all their money in the Market until they've lost 60% of their life savings. So what are the Libtards panicking about? Their scenario provides the best possible outcome for their funds!

By comparison OTOH, if the Libtards are delusional and the Stock Market is the Real World, then a couple extreme possibilities can be presented.
One is that, for no reason, the current high of 26,616 remains the peak of this cycle. The drop to trigger remains the same as above, as well as the rebound range. But then the bottom would be more like 17,740 (67%) or we could hope for 13,300 (50%). The discount price for buying back in would not be as big of a bargain, plus the time of range of drop would be more brief, so exiting the fund would be more time critical, allowing for less dilly-dallying. And then the recovery gains would only be 30 - 50%.
The other possibility would be that the explanation for Obamanomics which I posted earlier in this thread are correct. The Market will continue to climb, for up to 8 years, before moving to Bear Market.
By that time most folk would have forgotten about Libtard delusional theories.

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Another repost, for convenience. From 8 Feb.

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Top-of-the-Page reposting, from 22 May:

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 23,533. A drop of 1.7% today. This is 11.6% off the Record All-Time High. Hard to beat a discount price like this to buy in at. Buffet must be buying like crazy about now.
The Dow closed at 23,860 on 8 February.
Dow closed at 23,539 on 4 November 2017.
Dow closed at 23,516 on 3 November 2017.

Today Trump signed the Cramnibus Spendaholic bill, largest spending bill in history, to last until September if this year, 6 months from now.

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although a lot of people would be relieved if it drops to 22,623 before rebounding.


Perhaps I should point out, here in the moment: these are the days of making the largest gains in funds. Buying at a discount of 6% can get an easy gain on bounce back, in a matter of days instead of the 55 days it recently took to scale this mountain of stock value.
And if it can drop to 22,623 then the rebound can only be reasonably expected to be 5% to 10% of the all-time high, so buying at the end of Monday could still result in a loss.
But regardless, whenever the market hits the best bargain price, that is when the common trader has the greatest opportunity to grow their funds. Although this volatility is just noise, the potential for growth is far greater than days of a couple hundred point gains.

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This was posted 23 March, with the lowest close of the Dow in 2018, at 23,533.
Prior to 4 November 2017 the Dow had never closed higher than 23,516.

Today Dow closed at 24,834.


The within quote was from 6 Feb. Folk can't say I didn't provide the recipe in time.

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Reposted from 10 October:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 25,598. S&P 500 and NASDAQ lost a greater percent today.

Yesterday marked 19 days in a row over 26K, which is the most in history. Yesterday's close was at 26,430.


The Dow peak Close on 3 October was 26,828. So now it is 4.6% off this High.

The S&P 500 peak Close to date was 2,930.

The NASDAQ peak Close to date was 8,109 on 31 August.

If you are wondering if you can panic, we will know Bear Market is coming when the Dow drops 15% from it's All-Time High. That would be 22,804 Dow. That would actually be the most profitable scenario for Market Timers.

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Is this still making sense to you? Or making more sense?

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Quote:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.

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You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.


Here's what I do know.

I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.

I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.

Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.

Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.


My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.



The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.




If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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I have been trying to get back to this for 2 weeks, and I am sorry for the delay. I was not ignoring of avoiding it, but would have been timed better a couple days earlier.

I will try to get this all in one post.


You will need to look for 2 kinds of funds. Hopefully you can find 2-4 candidates for each of the 2 kinds. One family of funds I looked at for friends had been reduced to about 170 funds (from 450ish), and I found 2 of one kind and 4 of the other. IIRC none of those was in the category they should have been in.

Sorry, but you will actually need to evaluate each one, I can almost guarantee just reading the prospectus and summary or rating will not work. I have found some of the very best funds in the "Moderate" and also "low" risk categories. One rule of thumb (which you need to ignore) is that the most aggressive Growth is by definition more volatile and risky. The reverse is not true. Being risky does not guarantee high growth. Some funds just lose money all the time, and only being Classified as aggressive do they seem like the risk is worth it, but it is not, there is no correlation. Once you look at they like I explain, you will find the prospectus humorous on many.

You are looking to take advantage of a Bear Market cycle. The last one was in 2008, following a peak in October 2007 and ending the slide in March 2009. The last before that was 2001, following a peak in 1st Quarter 2000, then starting Bear around April 2001, and already at least 17% down before 9/11.
You need to know how well a fund is likely to, or you hope it will, perform in the next Bear Market cycle.
Many people will tell you that what your stated goal is, IS NOT POSSIBLE. It is called Market Timing, and today's Financially Illiterate Fiscal Professionals have been spoon-fed the mantra that Market Timing does not exist, does not work, will not ever work, no matter how many savvy Market Timers implement it each time successfully.
Standard Disclaimer is past performance is not indicative of future results. Which is technically and legally correct. But you and

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