Trump's Trade Wars - another disaster

POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Tuesday, July 7, 2020 08:51
VIEWED: 14929
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REAVERFAN

Saturday, July 28, 2018 9:09 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:

GDP is at 4.1%...shut up

T

Funny how Trump blatantly lied, again.

Not that we didn't expect him to.

A lying president is the norm in Trump's America.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, July 28, 2018 9:27 AM

Quote:

A lying president is the norm in America.

Fixed it for ya.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, July 28, 2018 1:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
I don't think that cutting taxes in THIS situation will reduce the deficit. - SIGNY

You can argue with CBO about that. Lettuce know how well that works for ya. - JSF
JSF, you posted ...

Quote:
You should try reading some news sometime, instead of 3-month old outdated gibberish, which every reasonable person knew it was when it was propagated.
A few weeks later, the CBO announced that they were off by $2.95 Trillion, and the Trump Tax Reform would actually reduce the debt by $1.45 Trillion, after several years of first paying back the $1.5 Trillion.
I went to the CBO website and there was NOTHING there like this. So if you have information that none of us have ... LINKS, PLEASE?

Quote:
To be technically accurate, I don't believe any reasonable projection has indicated the Obamanomics bloat will be halted soon enough to actually reduce the Debt in that timeframe, but the CBO was comparing the projections from before the Tax Reform, and then comparing again a few weeks later.
As I requested: LINKS, PLEASE?

Quote:
So, I do NOT agree with Trump's tax cut, unless there's something about "repatriation of capital" that I don't understand. When I have more time I'll research it.- SIGNY

Why don't you like Repatriation of Capital?- JSF
It's not that I don't like it, it's that I don't know exactly what it is or how its supposed to work. Here are two threads of thought that I have on the topic ....

1) It's possible to reduce imports into the USA by charging tariffs, and if the tariffs are high enough you can essentially block certain imports. BUT, just because there is a deficit of (say) automobiles in the USA and (because of reduced supply and steady demand) the price goes up from $25,000 to $50,000, altho that represents an investment opportunity, that doesn't necessarily mean that any company will actually step in and invest. Perhaps the total investment is too high, or interest rates are too high, so altho the "environment" might be good, actual investment might not happen.

2) At the same time, if taxes allow profit to remain in the USA, PERHAPS that money would be used for investment.

So possibly between a "push" (availability of money) and a "pull" (demand for product) the right investment would happen to re-industrialize America, but it seems a bit indirect/ uncertain.

??
Did you miss the news of Apple's Repatriation of Capital, about $380 Billion worth? They contributed something like $38 Billion to Federal Revenue coffers.
Yes, they decided to contribute that much Taxes.

For the CBO stuff, I can't easily do linkies right now.
You can try this: go to this post fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61505&mid=1056025
If that explanation is not enough for you, check the source data at CBO. They don't make it easy, and their written reports are garbage, hoping you won't notice how badly they lied the last month, every month. Use one of the links in that thread for CBO publications, and change the number to 53651 for the April report, and then 53884 for the May report.
IIRC, you want to look at the numbers at the end of the next decade, and compare. They tried very hard to obfuscate, but the numbers really are there.

Hopefully that gets you what you want.

The figures I posted above and you quoted are from recall and are slightly off, but the figures at the linked post are correct.

The April report is the Fake one, published so they could generate some Fake News headlines. That's the one where they say Tax Reform will add $1.9 Trillion to the Debt, compared to what they had projected previously.
The May report is where they backtracked to the vicinity of reality.
I posted the figures side by side in this post from that thread: 1053414.

SECOND

Saturday, July 28, 2018 6:22 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:
So, I do NOT agree with Trump's tax cut, unless there's something about "repatriation of capital" that I don't understand. When I have more time I'll research it.- SIGNY

Why don't you like Repatriation of Capital?- JSF
It's not that I don't like it, it's that I don't know exactly what it is or how its supposed to work. Here are two threads of thought that I have on the topic ....

1) It's possible to reduce imports into the USA by charging tariffs, and if the tariffs are high enough you can essentially block certain imports. BUT, just because there is a deficit of (say) automobiles in the USA and (because of reduced supply and steady demand) the price goes up from $25,000 to $50,000, altho that represents an investment opportunity, that doesn't necessarily mean that any company will actually step in and invest. Perhaps the total investment is too high, or interest rates are too high, so altho the "environment" might be good, actual investment might not happen.

2) At the same time, if taxes allow profit to remain in the USA, PERHAPS that money would be used for investment.

So possibly between a "push" (availability of money) and a "pull" (demand for product) the right investment would happen to re-industrialize America, but it seems a bit indirect/ uncertain.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

We’re still waiting for both the investment surge and the wage gains the tax cutters promised; as far as we can tell, they’re never coming.

www.nytimes.com/2018/07/28/opinion/why-one-quarters-growth-tells-us-no
thing.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SIGNYM

Saturday, July 28, 2018 9:29 PM

Quote:
We’re still waiting for both the investment surge and the wage gains the tax cutters promised- SECOND

Oh, you are? That must mean that you believed the hype to begin win. I'm not waiting; but that's because I didn't think the approach would work in the first place*.

Quote:
as far as we can tell, they’re never coming. - SECOND

Well, "never" is a long time. I encourage all writers to never use "never" and always avoid "always".

BEFORE TRUMP WAS EVEN ELECTED I opined that he would NOT be able to reverse America's economic fortunes, not even in two terms*. The BEST that we could hope for was to pull out of current "free trade" agreements, and avoid future ones, which would dis-empower the USA from being able to make sovereign economic and trade decisions to benefit AMERICA's economy ... a power that we may desperately need in response to the de-dollarization that was already being planned by China, Russia, and (some say) the IMF.

*I did go into my reasons at the time; I'll be happy to repeat the train of thought later when I have more time.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

SECOND

Saturday, July 28, 2018 10:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

*I did go into my reasons at the time; I'll be happy to repeat the train of thought later when I have more time.

Please don't. You are a know-it-all that doesn't know what you don't know.

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

BEFORE TRUMP WAS EVEN ELECTED I opined that he would NOT be able to reverse America's economic fortunes, not even in two terms.
"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

Trump can reverse America’s fortune. He can make it worse: the junk loans that tanked the economy in 2008? They are back!

“We have now re-created the condition that led to the last crisis by making it easier to aggregate loans that are not good for investors.”

It is no coincidence that the decline in loan quality has occurred as there’s been a shift in who is doing the lending. Back in 2013, 70 percent of the loans were made by major banks whose lending is closely scrutinized by government bank regulators. That figure is now down to 54 percent, according to Bloomberg, as hedge funds, private-equity firms, insurance companies and non-regulated lenders have entered the market in a big way. This shift in market share away from banks mirrors what happened to mortgage lending in the run-up to the 2008 crash, when competition from unregulated lenders led banks to lower lending standards in an effort to maintain their market share.

There’s also been a shift in how the loans are being used. Some of the debt is being used, as it always has been, to finance expansion or refinance old debt. But more recently, a growing portion of leveraged lending has been used to buy back stock, pay special dividends to private-equity firms cashing out of their investments or to finance richly priced mergers and acquisitions, which are now running at a pace that exceeds the bubbles of 2000 and 2007. In other words, it has been used to reward investors rather than grow the business.

The mergers and acquisitions are particularly troublesome. According to Covenant Review, a debt analyst, the amount of debt used to finance these takeover deals has grown significantly, from 6.4 times cash flow in 2015 to 7.7 times cash flow in the first quarter of this year. Moreover, analysts warn that as much as 30 percent of that expected cash flow might never materialize because of overly rosy assumptions about cost savings and revenue growth. A slowdown in the economy or a rise in interest rates could very well put those companies in a cash squeeze, e.g. bankruptcy.

Although financial regulators have taken notice of the increased volume and declining quality of corporate credit, they haven’t done much to discourage it — just the opposite, in fact.
Earlier this year, after complaints from banks and dealmakers reached sympathetic ears in the Trump administration, the newly installed chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Comptroller of the Currency Office declared that previous “guidance” against lending to companies whose debt exceeded six times their annual cash flow should not be taken as a hard and fast rule.

More at www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-junk-debt-that-tanked-the-economy-
its-back-in-a-big-way/ar-BBL9ef2?ocid=spartandhp

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SIGNYM

Saturday, July 28, 2018 11:06 PM

Quote:
Trump can reverse America’s fortune. He can make it worse: the junk loans that tanked the economy in 2008? They are back!

“We have now re-created the condition that led to the last crisis by making it easier to aggregate loans that are not good for investors.” - SECONDHAND

Speaking of being a know-it-all about things that you know thing about ...

"Junk loans" have been with us for over five years. The conditions weren't "suddenly" created in the past year, they were re-created under OBAMA's reign. The student loan crisis. The auto loan disaster. The real estate loan crisis-to-be. The stock plunge and the hedge fund crisis ... people have been warning about these for (literally) years. Where have you been living lately? Certainly not in the USA!

To be fair, this is because of The Fed keeping interest rates at near-zero for years and years, which encouraged speculative bubbles and improvident borrowing. Sarbanes-Oxley encouraged the avoidance of traditional lending and promoted SHADOW BANKS. (BTW: NOT TRUMP'S FAULT). Blaming Trump for the upcoming disaster (which people including myself have been predicting for a while) is like blaming Obama for the Great Recession. This upcoming crisis? Not Obama's fault (directly, altho he CAN be blamed for the Fed Char appointment) and not Trump's either; look to The Fed and its monetary policy.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

6IXSTRINGJACK

Sunday, July 29, 2018 12:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Trump can reverse America’s fortune. He can make it worse: the junk loans that tanked the economy in 2008? They are back!

“We have now re-created the condition that led to the last crisis by making it easier to aggregate loans that are not good for investors.” - SECONDHAND
Speaking of being a know-it-all about things that you know thing about ...

"Junk loans" have been with us for over five years. The conditions weren't "suddenly" created in the past year, they were re-created under OBAMA's reign. The student loan crisis. The auto loan disaster. The real estate loan crisis-to-be. The stock plunge and the hedge fund crisis ... people have been warning about these for (literally) years. Where have you been living lately? Certainly not in the USA!

To be fair, this is because of The Fed keeping interest rates at near-zero for years and years, which encouraged speculative bubbles and improvident borrowing. Sarbanes-Oxley encouraged the avoidance of traditional lending and promoted SHADOW BANKS. (BTW: NOT TRUMP'S FAULT). Blaming Trump for the upcoming disaster (which people including myself have been predicting for a while) is like blaming Obama for the Great Recession. This upcoming crisis? Not Obama's fault (directly, altho he CAN be blamed for the Fed Char appointment) and not Trump's either; look to The Fed and its monetary policy.

Somebody might want to remind Second with his own numerous quotes on the matter that the President doesn't have this power, unless it's convenient to his argument apparently...

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SIGNYM

Sunday, July 29, 2018 9:21 AM

I figure if SECOND can post random second-hand shit so can I, so here goes ...

Quote:
"There's No Way To Make This Work" Martenson Warns "A Big Reset Is Locked In"

Futurist and economic researcher Chris Martenson says we are not at the end of a business cycle but “. . . at the end of a credit cycle.”

Martenson warns,

“Here’s why people need to be concerned. Credit cycles, when they blow up, are really, really destructive..."

"2008 to 2009 was very destructive. Instead of realizing the error of their ways, they went for a third. This is the most comprehensive credit cycle that we have seen. Remember, bubbles have two things that they need. Number one, a good story that people can believe in and, of course, it’s a false story. Number two, ample credit. That’s what the Fed and central banks of Japan and Europe have done. They just flooded the world with credit. Now, we have bubbles everywhere. When these burst, it will be the worst bursting in anybody’s lifetime because we have never seen anything like this.”

Martenson says a debt reset is locked in, and somebody is going to pay.

“When you have as much debt that the United States has... the overall debt level in the United States, including auto loans, mortgages, consumer debt, student loans and corporate debt and whatever, we’re sitting at about $60 trillion right now. It’s a huge number, and when you get to this level of indebtedness, plus those unfunded or underfunded liabilities

which some have estimated to be in the realm of $240 trillion total

Quote:
... when you get to this level of indebtedness, there is really only one question left to be resolved, and that is who is going to eat the losses. That’s it.

So, when you start asking that question, the banks and people writing the laws are pretty sure they are not going to take the losses. The person relying on the pension is the person that is going to eat the losses. . . . There is no way to make this work. Here’s where the social tension comes in. Even as ordinary middle class people are being destroyed in this process, the rich are taking more and more out of the system. That is courtesy of the policies of the Federal Reserve...

But the big risk is when these printing sprees, these credit cycles finally burst. They are wildly destructive. They are fast. They are hard. They are sharp and they hurt.”

Martenson says people can protect themselves with real assets as opposed to paper assets. Martenson says,

“Real assets are the place you need to be if and when a paper tower comes crumbling down. I am diversified myself. I believe in land. I believe in real estate. I believe in gold. I believe in silver. I believe in other metals. I believe in these hard assets because this is where we are going to have to hide out because if you held hard assets in Turkey, in Venezuela, in Argentina and in places where the currency collapsed and declined, these would have been great places to be hiding out...

When this worm turns, it’s going to be a lot faster than it has in the past. There is no free lunch, and if you can see that, there is a wealth transfer coming. The wealth transfer is going to have a bright red line, and people are going to get trapped on the side where they hold paper claims, and the people that are going to preserve their wealth are going to be on the other side of the line with their wealth tied up in real things. That’s the period of history that is about to unfold.”

Chris Martenson added this ominous statement: “We are one sinking of an aircraft carrier away from the U.S. dollar being revealed as a fraud.”

INTERVIEW HERE

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarch

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, August 1, 2018 4:56 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
I don't think that cutting taxes in THIS situation will reduce the deficit. - SIGNY

You can argue with CBO about that. Lettuce know how well that works for ya. - JSF
JSF, you posted ...

Quote:
You should try reading some news sometime, instead of 3-month old outdated gibberish, which every reasonable person knew it was when it was propagated.
A few weeks later, the CBO announced that they were off by $2.95 Trillion, and the Trump Tax Reform would actually reduce the debt by $1.45 Trillion, after several years of first paying back the $1.5 Trillion.
I went to the CBO website and there was NOTHING there like this. So if you have information that none of us have ... LINKS, PLEASE?

Quote:
To be technically accurate, I don't believe any reasonable projection has indicated the Obamanomics bloat will be halted soon enough to actually reduce the Debt in that timeframe, but the CBO was comparing the projections from before the Tax Reform, and then comparing again a few weeks later.
As I requested: LINKS, PLEASE?

Quote:
So, I do NOT agree with Trump's tax cut, unless there's something about "repatriation of capital" that I don't understand. When I have more time I'll research it.- SIGNY

Why don't you like Repatriation of Capital?- JSF
It's not that I don't like it, it's that I don't know exactly what it is or how its supposed to work. Here are two threads of thought that I have on the topic ....

1) It's possible to reduce imports into the USA by charging tariffs, and if the tariffs are high enough you can essentially block certain imports. BUT, just because there is a deficit of (say) automobiles in the USA and (because of reduced supply and steady demand) the price goes up from $25,000 to $50,000, altho that represents an investment opportunity, that doesn't necessarily mean that any company will actually step in and invest. Perhaps the total investment is too high, or interest rates are too high, so altho the "environment" might be good, actual investment might not happen.

2) At the same time, if taxes allow profit to remain in the USA, PERHAPS that money would be used for investment.

So possibly between a "push" (availability of money) and a "pull" (demand for product) the right investment would happen to re-industrialize America, but it seems a bit indirect/ uncertain.
??
Did you miss the news of Apple's Repatriation of Capital, about $380 Billion worth? They contributed something like $38 Billion to Federal Revenue coffers.
Yes, they decided to contribute that much Taxes.

For the CBO stuff, I can't easily do linkies right now.
You can try this: go to this post fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61505&mid=1056025
If that explanation is not enough for you, check the source data at CBO. They don't make it easy, and their written reports are garbage, hoping you won't notice how badly they lied the last month, every month. Use one of the links in that thread for CBO publications, and change the number to 53651 for the April report, and then 53884 for the May report.
IIRC, you want to look at the numbers at the end of the next decade, and compare. They tried very hard to obfuscate, but the numbers really are there.

Hopefully that gets you what you want.

The figures I posted above and you quoted are from recall and are slightly off, but the figures at the linked post are correct.

The April report is the Fake one, published so they could generate some Fake News headlines. That's the one where they say Tax Reform will add $1.9 Trillion to the Debt, compared to what they had projected previously.
The May report is where they backtracked to the vicinity of reality.
I posted the figures side by side in this post from that thread: 1053414.

Did that work for ya?

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