Pentagon: Secret Report on Climate - Bush lied again

POSTED BY: Ghoulman
UPDATED: Sunday, February 12, 2006 04:33
VIEWED: 3266
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GHOULMAN

Friday, September 10, 2004 1:52 PM

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism

Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York
Sunday February 22, 2004
The Observer
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.h
tml
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Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'

The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration, which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will also make unsettling reading for a President who has insisted national defence is a priority.

The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American military under Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business Network.

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is 'plausible and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately', they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions.

Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire from a large body of respected scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its policy agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like. Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that suppression of the report for four months was a further example of the White House trying to bury the threat of climate change.

Senior climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts could prove the catalyst in forcing Bush to accept climate change as a real and happening phenomenon. They also hope it will convince the United States to sign up to global treaties to reduce the rate of climatic change.

A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the White House to voice their fears over global warming, part of an intensifying drive to get the US to treat the issue seriously. Sources have told The Observer that American officials appeared extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with complaints that America's public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.

One even alleged that the White House had written to complain about some of the comments attributed to Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief scientific adviser, after he branded the President's position on the issue as indefensible.

Among those scientists present at the White House talks were Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief environmental adviser to the German government and head of the UK's leading group of climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. He said that the Pentagon's internal fears should prove the 'tipping point' in persuading Bush to accept cli

GEEZER

Friday, September 10, 2004 2:57 PM

Just in case you want to get your info first hand and not just a few quotes, the actual report, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security" can be seen here:

http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf

Here's the introduction:

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.

And a response to the "Hullabaloo":

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/02/25/MNG0O57
R4R1.DTL

Wednesday, February 25, 2004

San Francisco Chronicle

Pentagon-sponsored climate report sparks hullabaloo in Europe But new ice age unlikely, Bay Area authors of study say

Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer
Wednesday, February 25, 2004

A Pentagon-commissioned report by two Bay Area futurologists has sparked an international brouhaha over possible climate change disasters. But both the authors and military officials say the study has been largely misconstrued by the media and environmentalists.

BTW, note the dates on these two articles. Both are from back in February, so not the latest stuff off the presses.

Edit: and if I were the paranoid type, I'd wonder why the Observer article never mentioned the name of the report, which would have made it a lot easier to find. Could it be that they didn't want folks reading the original source data and making up their own minds? Nah, that's just crazy talk.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

GHOULMAN

Friday, September 10, 2004 3:38 PM

^^^ that was fast. Yes, it's the "worst case scenario".

Funny, I can't dump on Geezers' comments (as much as I'd like too) as I too didn't like how this article was written.

However, I do believe that the fix is in.

CONNORFLYNN

Friday, September 10, 2004 5:16 PM

Damn!!.. I got my hopes up, that the end of the world was at hand hehe. I was hoping New York may become Florida-like LOL.

"I actually voted for John Kerry, before I voted against him"

PIRATEJENNY

Friday, October 1, 2004 9:27 PM

Thanks for the article its very interesting if nothing else..Global warming isn't a hoax..I don't know how soon we are going to start feeling the dire effects , or even if it will happen in my lifetime..but I do think its something that this courntry and the world should start taking very seriously and should start emplementing policies and such to combat it.

if the human race is going to surive we are going to start not only sharing our resources but we will have to Globalize..I know for some thats a hard concept but really the surival of the human race depends on it...

FIREFLEW

Saturday, October 2, 2004 6:35 PM

What I find astonishing is how the environmental minister doesn't even believe global warming exists... I mean, it's been all but proven to within 0.0000001% or somesuch degree of certainty... It's completely ridiculous.

However, that report looks on the whole slightly too doomsday-esque. Sure, global warming exists but it won't affect us that much, even if it is the worst case scenario...

Coincidentally, I'll be... 32 by the time it get chilly in England. Shall I just buy some big coats now whilst they're cheap ?

___________________________________
Jayne: "Know what the chain of command is? It's the chain I beat you with till you understand who's in command."

GHOULMAN

Monday, October 4, 2004 5:04 PM

^^^ the report is a "worst case scenario" and slanted to wards security issues.

It's not a prediction but a "what if".

However, it's interesting this is the topic of discussion (in the Pentagon) from a nation that doesn't admit Global Warming even exists!

BTW, science isn't about "proving" things and, uh, it can't!

THEGREYJEDI

Monday, October 4, 2004 7:12 PM

Well, to be fair, global warming and the greenhouse effect are natural occurances that keep our planet in liveable conditions(relatively). And even if there are climate shifts in the works, these things have a tendency towards cyclic behavior. Should the planet warm enough, nature kicks in with an ice age to reset things. About 500 years ago, Europe was assualted by decades of brutally cold winters, on top of constant war and plagues and the like. While pollution is a threat, true and mighty threat, over-reaction, like that article, aren't the answer. I disagree with a lot of the Bush Administration's environmental policies, and I hope the US hops on board with the Kyoto Treaty soon. But our modern era is producing far less pollutants than what was done 30, even 20 years ago. Our gasoline burns cleaner than the past, and we are, slowly, working towards alternatives. Rising gas prices will only increase the speed at which alternatives are found. There's still a lot of recycling, though only a few things can be recycled efficiently, namely aluminum (the most efficient by and far, at like 97%), tires, and paper. Is there global warming? Possibly, but here in NC, I've noticed that our summers are cooler than they were 10 years ago by an estimated average of about 10 degrees. This year, for example, our hottest days were in the mid 90's. Whereas the summer of '94 I know saw several days near 105. So what does that say?

All I'm saying is that our care of the environment isn't perfect but it's improving. You can weep and moan and gnash your teeth about the terrors of industries, but in order for this to work, you have to work at the individual level. Use premium gas, which burns the cleanest. Keep your car in tune, change the oil abnd sparkplugs and air filters, etc. Recycle everything you can. Use fans, don't turn the AC down or heat up so much and use the most energy efficient devices. Our pollution problem ultimately falls on our own shoulders, not the government's.

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COSMICFUGITIVE

Monday, October 4, 2004 7:20 PM

Interesting stuff Ghoulman. I've been following this for a while now. It's good to see it being reported here.

Worst case scenario or not, time is running out. It's still worrying.

Random Thought: Don't hurricanes help cool global warming?

Keep up the good work.

RUE

Monday, October 4, 2004 7:40 PM

Quote:
Should the planet warm enough, nature kicks in with an ice age to reset things.

I'm glad you have this figured out. Maybe you should tell all those scientists with their supercomputers they can go home now.

Quote:
But our modern era is producing far less pollutants than what was done 30, even 20 years ago.

Not true, either on a per capita or total measure.

Quote:
here in NC, I've noticed that our summers are cooler than they were 10 years ago by an estimated average of about 10 degrees. This year, for example, our hottest days were in the mid 90's. Whereas the summer of '94 I know saw several days near 105. So what does that say?

It says you haven't looked at any real research on global warming, and additionally commit the logical error of extending a severely limited observation (one minute locality over a mere 10 years) to a general (global century-long) one.

Quote:
you have to work at the individual level

Working at the local level is not how Japan and Europe managed to create powerhouse industrial economies at half the per-capital evergy consumption of the US.

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