Khamenei, One of Most Evil People in History, is Dead
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 05:42
VIEWED: 15626
PAGE 38 of 73
Quote:The Iran War’s Ramifications Have Only Just Begun
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It'll be fine, Sally.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Evil. Be a dick.
U.S. goals haven’t been met, but the war will cause long-term disruptions.
By Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire | April 30, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/the-iran-wars-ra
mifications-have-only-just-begun/687004/
President Trump, celebrating Tehran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial shipping, posted on Truth Social on April 17, “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE.” The opening didn’t last. But, in his haste, Trump had inadvertently spelled out possibly the most consequential result of his eight-week war: The Strait of Hormuz now looks, in practice, like the “STRAIT OF IRAN.”
Although none of the Trump administration’s goals—an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, destroying Iran’s missile capability, neutralizing proxy forces, regime change—has been fulfilled, the war has led to enduring changes. Two sweeping conclusions—one short-term, one longer—have become clear, experts in defense, diplomacy, business, and economics told us.
In the short term, despite an indefinite cease-fire that kicked in last week following an initial two-week pause in hostilities, a durable end to the war isn’t coming anytime soon. The disparity in U.S. and Iranian demands for how negotiations should proceed, along with blockades by their respective forces in the strait, has locked the two sides in a stalemate. Many Americans still expect a quick end to the war’s economic strain. But that’s unlikely. At a Vanderbilt University panel discussion on warfare this week, the moderator asked when the effects of the war might end. A retired general, a retired CIA analyst, and an energy-industry executive said anywhere from two to nine months, prompting a collective intake of breath from the audience.
Meanwhile, the economic geography of the Persian Gulf is likely changed forever. Iran now has greater authority over the strait than before the war began and stands to benefit from its closure. Iran might start charging exorbitant tolls for all ships that cross the strait. Or a consortium of nations, including Iran, might manage the waterway and split the profits. And if Tehran is willing to formally return the Strait of Hormuz to an international waterway, free and open for all, the regime has proved that it can close the strait at will, despite being confronted by the world’s most powerful military. “Even if Iran does not have explicit control, there is now always an implicit measure of control,” Richard Haass, a former high-ranking State Department official under President George W. Bush, told us. “Because they have shut it once, now they know they can do it again.”
That gives Iran extraordinary leverage over the roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied-natural-gas supplies that used to pass through the strait. In response, energy companies and shippers are exploring options that could involve billions of dollars in investment in new pipelines, port expansions, and alternative (though hardly fail-safe) routes through the Red Sea. Such a rewiring of global trade routes—akin to supply-chain changes made after the coronavirus pandemic—could ultimately render passage through the Strait of Hormuz unnecessary. But any such result is likely years away.
In the meantime, the grip Iran has on the strait is expected to disrupt business, keep global energy and fertilizer prices elevated for years, exacerbate inflation—and make it much harder for Trump to claim a win in the war he started.
On Tuesday, Trump asserted on Truth Social that Iran was in a “State of Collapse” and wanted to soon open the strait, which Tehran also relies on to export its oil and gas. But Iran has shown no inclination to abandon its leverage, and no further negotiations are scheduled.
Trump has appeared reluctant to
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The Pentagon is lying about the cost of the war
By Ryan Mancini | May 1, 2026
Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told CNN on Thursday that he heard estimates that the cost to the U.S. is around $50 billion. He said the higher estimate would be based on the “billion dollars a day” spent for more than 60 days since Feb. 28.
“I’m going to try to make some inquiry into what they based their estimate on, because $25 billion is considerably below all the other estimates I’ve been seeing for the past two months,” King told the outlet.
On Thursday, CNN reported that the Pentagon’s estimate failed to account for repairs to damaged U.S. military bases in the Middle East, with sources telling the outlet that those repairs could raise the cost by between $15 billion and $25 billion.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/iran-says-pentagon-lying-about
-cost-of-war/ar-AA22b45f
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:Quote:The Iran War’s Ramifications Have Only Just Begun
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
It'll be fine, Sally.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Evil. Be a dick.
U.S. goals haven’t been met, but the war will cause long-term disruptions.
By Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire | April 30, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Don't reply to me with anything from The Atlantic.
It will be fine, Sally.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Nice. Don't be a dick.
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Quote:Trump asks, "We Won, But Why Hasn't Iran Surrendered?" Because Trump is not getting a surrender until the US Army invades and conquers, as it did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iran knows how poorly those two invasions went for the US Presidents involved. An Iran invasion will go poorly for Trump.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Don't reply to me with anything from The Atlantic.
It will be fine, Sally.
--------------------------------------------------
Be Evil. Be a dick.
The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Struck a Deal
The standoff isn’t about hard-liners blocking pragmatists inside Iran, but about both sides believing that they have won the war.
By Thomas Wright | May 1, 2026, 9:42 AM ET
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-us-negotiations
-ceasefire/687025/
On Monday, Iran made Donald Trump an offer: It would open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade while nuclear negotiations continued. On Wednesday, Trump rejected this offer, promising to keep the blockade in place until Iran agrees to America’s terms on the nuclear issue. The blockade “is genius,” he said, and “now they have to cry uncle. That’s all they have to do. Just say, ‘We give up.’”
The Trump administration’s explanation for this standoff is that there is an “absolute fracture” in the Iranian regime between the military and the negotiators. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that “unfortunately, the hard-liners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have the ultimate power in that country,” especially because the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is “untested” and “has not been seen.”
The administration now appears to be gaming out a new course of action: strikes targeting not Iran’s military capacity but the faction inside the regime that it believes is blocking a deal. The president recently reposted a video of the Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen calling for an aerial campaign to do exactly this. According to Axios, the military has prepared options for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes, which General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, briefed to the president yesterday.
The timing of such a move is complicated because of Trump’s state visit to China scheduled for mid-May, which has been postponed once before. Strikes could happen within the next few days, so as to precede the trip, or they could come immediately after it.
But the assumption underlying this approach is almost certainly wrong. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has proved far more resilient than either Washington or Jerusalem anticipated. An institution that has survived multiple rounds of air strikes, international isolation, and the death of much of its senior leadership does not capitulate because a few more names are removed from the org chart. And hard-liners are spread throughout the regime, not just in the IRGC.
Iran and the United States have failed to come to an agreement not because hard-liners are blocking pragmatists inside Iran, but because both sides seem to sincerely believe that they have won the war.
According to Trump, the United States has destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, many of its missiles, and much of its military and industrial capacity. But the Iranian regime sees mainly that it has withstood a war that has aimed to topple it, has demonstrated its ability to attack the Persian Gulf and Israel, and has succeeded in controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
During talks in Islamabad, the U.S. negotiating team, led by J. D. Vance, found that Iran was entirely unresponsive to American demands regarding its nuclear program. Instead of going back to war, Trump opted for a blockade, which Vance reportedly believed would cause Iran to give in after a few days.
But Iran has resisted U.S. demands to completely cease enriching uranium, and to curb its missile program, for years. It has gone to war with the United States and Israel twice rather than concede those points. The Iranian regime is not lik
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The US Will "Guide" Vessels In The Strait--What That Might Mean
Phillips P. OBrien
May 04, 2026
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/taking-the-initiative-in-war-mi
ght
Things remain uncertain now, and the White House is saying that this is not an “escort” mission and US vessels will not go into the Strait to protect the shipping. Instead, according to the Wall Street Journal, what Trump is saying is that the US will include locating “mines and passing along that information to ships transiting the waterway so they can avoid danger, according to senior U.S. officials, as well as identifying generally the safest routes to navigate.”
This is a long way from actually protecting ships and if this is all there is, the US will not be opening the Strait any time soon (without Iranian support). To help answer what this might be, I can see four very different scenarios. Here they are.
1. This is exactly what the WSJ is saying and is an attempt to bluff the Iranians into opening the Strait. If so, it will probably fail.
2. The US is actually signalling that it will intervene forcefully in the Strait, so we should see a significant US escalation soon.
3. Iran is on board with this and the two sides are closer to reaching a deal.
4. Trump is trying to keep the oil markets from rising as it is Monday morning, and there is nothing to this in reality and nothing will actually change.
At this point, your guess about which of these is more likely is as good as mine.
The announcement last night by President Trump that the USA would “guide” worldwide shipping out of the Strait.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business. Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
8.93k ReTruths 39.8k Likes
May 03, 2026, 9:35 PM
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Why is the American media largely silent about Israel’s role in Trump’s decision to go to war?
In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment. Here’s the inside story of how he made the fateful decision.
The decision by President Trump to give the go-ahead to join Israel in attacking Iran was influenced by a presentation by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in February that led to a series of discussions inside the White House over the following days and weeks.
By Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman | April 7, 2026
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html
The black S.U.V. carrying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House just before 11 a.m. on Feb. 11. The Israeli leader, who had been pressing for months for the United States to agree to a major assault on Iran, was whisked inside with little ceremony, out of view of reporters, primed for one of the most high-stakes moments in his long career.
U.S. and Israeli officials gathered first in the Cabinet Room, adjacent to the Oval Office. Then Mr. Netanyahu headed downstairs for the main event: a highly classified presentation on Iran for President Trump and his team in the White House Situation Room, which was rarely used for in-person meetings with foreign leaders.
Mr. Trump sat down, but not in his usual position at the head of the room’s mahogany conference table. Instead, the president took a seat on one side, facing the large screens mounted along the wall. Mr. Netanyahu sat on the other side, directly opposite the president.
Appearing on the screen behind the prime minister was David Barnea, the director of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, as well as Israeli military officials. Arrayed visually behind Mr. Netanyahu, they created the image of a wartime leader surrounded by his team.
Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, sat at the far end of the table. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who doubled as the national security adviser, had taken his regular seat. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who generally sat together in such settings, were on one side; joining them was John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, and Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy, who had been negotiating with the Iranians, rounded out the main group.
The gathering had been kept deliberately small to guard against leaks. Other top cabinet secretaries had no idea it was happening. Also absent was the vice president. JD Vance was in Azerbaijan, and the meeting had been scheduled on such short notice that he was unable to make it back in time.
The presentation that Mr. Netanyahu would make over the next hour would be pivotal in setting the United States and Israel on the path toward a major armed conflict in the middle of one of the world’s most volatile regions. And it would lead to a series of discussions inside the White House over the following days and weeks, the details of which have not been previously reported, in which Mr. Trump weighed his options and the risks before giving the go-ahead to join Israel in attacking Iran.
This account of how Mr. Trump took the United States into war is drawn from reporting for a forthcoming book, “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.” It reveals how the deliberations inside the administration highlighted the president’s instincts, his inner circle’s fractures and the way he runs the White House. It draws on extensive interviews conducted on the condition of anonymity to recount internal discussions and sensitive issues.
The reporting underscores how closely Mr. Trump’s hawkish thinking aligned with Mr. Netanyahu’s over many months, more so than even some of the president’s key advisers recognized. Their close association has been an enduring feature across two administrations, and that dynamic — however fraught at t
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Operation Epic Fury, meet Operation Colossal Blunder
May 4, 2026
https://attentiontotheunseen.com/2026/05/04/operation-epic-fury-meet-o
peration-colossal-blunder/
Scott Anderson writes:
America’s war with Iran has entered a calmer phase: diplomatic posturing, on-and-off-again negotiations and endless wrangling of a settlement. This, of course, is far preferable to the annihilation of Iranian civilization that President Trump was threatening just a few weeks ago. But it raises the question of just what has spurred this turnabout.
The answer is rather straightforward. The American and Israeli bombing of Iran failed to provoke either a popular uprising against the regime in Tehran or its capitulation, however painfully slow Mr. Trump and his advisers have been to acknowledge that. Instead, Iran discovered its ability to shut down the vital passageway of the Strait of Hormuz and send the global economy into chaos.
There are now only two outcomes to the conflict: either the kind of wholesale destruction of Iran that Mr. Trump posited, or a settlement that will leave the government intact and empowered, and a blustering American president humiliated.
The first option is increasingly remote. By publicly threatening the commission of war crimes on an enormous scale, Mr. Trump has given both his domestic and foreign opponents time to marshal resistance. As for the latter and more likely outcome, this was predictable, if only the president and his administration had bothered to take note of a new feature of modern warfare, a feature that can be boiled down to a single word: drones.
The weaponized drone has utterly transformed today’s battlefield. It is the modern-day equivalent of the machine gun of World War I. Because of the drone, the vastly outnumbered Ukrainian military has been able to withstand the Russian Army of Vladimir Putin for the past four years, not only inflicting far greater casualties on the invaders than expected, but doing so at a cost of pennies to the dollar. As the Ukrainians have shown time and again, a $1,000 drone can destroy a roughly $4.5 million T-90 tank. While the Russians have recently made significant strides in drone warfare, this simple weapon has ensured that they’ve grievously paid for their war both on the battlefield and in the pocketbook.
Much of this same dynamic has played out in Iran for the past two months, although without the staggering cost in human lives. Certainly, American and Israeli warplanes can bomb Iran’s military infrastructure at will — and they have, tens of thousands of times — but no amount of bombing can remove the primary retaliatory weapon at its disposal.
On the contrary, Iran can continue to mass-produce drones at a fraction of the cost of the weapons being produced by the other side. What Mr. Trump calls his “excursion” in Iran has already cost the United States at least $25 billion, according to the Pentagon, and significantly depleted its stockpile of sophisticated missiles. That depletion is already causing shortages in other strategic arenas and could take years to replenish. All the while, with their cheap and plentiful drones — assembling a top-of-the-line Shahed-136 drone costs Iran an estimated $35,000 — Iran continues to dictate the terms in the Strait of Hormuz choke point.
But what about continuing the American naval blockade of the strait or launching a ground assault on Iran’s shores, as Trump has also periodically proposed? Granted, matters might get ugly, but surely this will lead to American victory and an end to the impasse, right? Wrong. Build out an ironclad blockade or put 50,000 American troops on Persian Gulf beachheads, and the Iranians will still retain the ability to fire a drone over their heads to hit an oil-laden tanker and paralyze the global economy anew.
More at https://attentiontotheunseen.com/2026/05/04/operation-epic-fury-meet-o
peration-colossal-blunder/
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/
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Trump says Iran will be ‘blown off face of Earth’ if US ships are targeted in Strait of Hormuz
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Iran’s Unexpected Resilience
Two months of fighting have emphasized some of the country’s advantages.
By Will Gottsegen | May 5, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/05/iran-unexpected-resili
ence-devastated-military/687069/
By the United States military’s estimation, about 1,550 marine vessels—oil tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, and more—are idling in the Persian Gulf right now. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blockaded, their crews, many of them uninvolved in the ongoing war with Iran, are slowly using up supplies as they await safe passage through the mine-filled waterway. Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. would rescue these “victims of circumstance” by guiding them out of the war zone in an as-yet-unspecified way. On Monday, though, Iran’s military rejected the plan, warning that American military forces would be attacked if they approached the strait.
Both sides fired shots yesterday, although the U.S. claims that the cease-fire remains in place. The fact that Iran’s leaders are apparently willing to risk violating the delicate monthlong truce emphasizes just how fiercely they want to protect their hold over the strait. The past 65 days of war have badly punished Iran: Its leaders are dead, its navy and air force have been depleted, and its economy and infrastructure have been decimated. “If we leave right now,” Trump said last week, “it would take them 20 years to rebuild.” But amid the destruction, the country has also found new forms of leverage. Iran had not previously exercised this degree of control over the Strait of Hormuz, and before the war, the country could not have been confident that it would be able to do so. Even in its diminished state, the Iranian military has managed to deter enemy ships and outmaneuver anti-air systems, maintaining that grip on the strait while costing the U.S. billions.
After the U.S. and Israel began their military action, the Iranian government said it would attack any ship that tried to sail through the strait, and began deploying mines as deterrents. Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through each day; yesterday, that number was down to three. The ships that do cross now mostly do so under the strict supervision of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which reportedly has been demanding tolls in cryptocurrency and Chinese yuan, and rerouting traffic away from Oman, toward Iran-controlled waters.
Iranian dominance over the strait may well be the new norm. On Sunday, Iran’s Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ali Nikzad was emphatic that the country “will not back down” from its position on the strait, “and it will not return to its prewar conditions.” That’s because the country’s restrictions on the strait have succeeded on a strategic level, creating a global energy shock and unleashing economic devastation around the world—putting massive pressure on the U.S. and Israel to come to the bargaining table. Trump has demanded that Iran “Open the Fuckin’ Strait,” but as Iran’s threats yesterday made clear, we’re a long way off from the pre-February status quo. Even when Iranian leadership has offered to reopen the strait as part of potential peace deals, as it has over the past month, it has done so with the knowledge that Iran could always reassert control. That’s exactly what happened on April 17, when the country declared the strait open to all; the next day, Iran reimposed its restrictions on passing ships, effectively closing the waterway once again.
The strait is not the only tool available to Iran. As recently as this weekend, Trump said that the country has “no navy” and “no air force.” But U.S. officials told CBS in late April that they believe 60 percent of its navy is still “in existence” and two-thirds of its air force is “operational.” Although the Iranian military is indeed far weaker than the U.S. military, it has also reportedly proved scrappier and more capable than expected. Last week, the Pentagon offered its first estimate of the total cost of the war in Iran thus far: $25 billi
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Trump Is ‘Bored’ With the War He Started
He wants out, but Iran could likely keep going for months.
By Jonathan Lemire | May 8, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/05/iran-war-trump-d
eal/687100/
President Trump really, really wants the war with Iran to end. He has declared victory many times, including about three weeks ago, when Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He has repeatedly extended his cease-fire deadlines instead of following through on his (sometimes-apocalyptic) threats to resume hostilities. This week, his administration abruptly abandoned an effort to escort ships through the strait in part because of a fear that it could provoke violent, escalating confrontations.
Trump is tired of the war, which has proved far more difficult and lasted far longer than he had expected. His party is warily watching rising gas prices and falling poll numbers. He doesn’t want to be bogged down in a Middle East conflict like some of his predecessors were. He doesn’t want it to upend his high-stakes summit next week in China. He is ready to move on.
But Iran, it seems, does not want the war to come to a close. Or at least not with any sort of outcome that could be acceptable to American negotiators. Trump is now in a bind. The president, five aides and outside advisers told me, is convinced that he can sell any sort of agreement as a win. But at least for now, the man who wrote The Art of the Deal can’t even get Iran to the negotiating table. Today, Washington is still waiting for Iran to respond to the latest offering, a one-page memorandum of understanding that is far more of an extension of the cease-fire than a treaty to end the conflict.
Trump is left with a vexing question: How do you end a war when your opponent won’t budge? And while Trump grasps for an exit, the hard-liners in Tehran have used the war to tighten their grip on power. Iran seems hell-bent on pulling off something it’s historically done well: humiliating an American president.
Trump never thought it would turn out like this. After the impressive military operation to snatch Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, the president set his eyes on Iran, telling confidants that it would “be another Venezuela,” a pair of outside advisers told me. They, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy. Trump believed that the U.S. military was unstoppable, and that he had a chance to topple Tehran’s theocracy, a prize that had eluded his predecessors. He was redrawing the world’s maps and expected a victory to come in days, a week or two at most. The initial U.S.-Israel onslaught killed Iran’s supreme leader and included waves of bombings that reportedly obliterated much of the country’s missile capabilities. But Tehran did not capitulate, and instead attacked its Persian Gulf neighbors and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. With a mix of mines, small attack boats, and drones, Iran effectively closed the waterway. Energy prices soared. The conflict settled into a stalemate and then a fragile cease-fire. One high-profile, official round of negotiations failed. No more are scheduled.
Outwardly Trump has expressed nothing but confidence. Sometimes, he downplays the war, calling it a “little excursion” or “detour” or “mini war.” He has proclaimed imminent victory nearly every day, a braggadocio that’s matched by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at his Pentagon briefings. Behind closed doors, the volume is lower, but U.S. officials do believe a naval blockade of Iran’s ports, installed last month, is working and squeezing the country’s economy. Facing collapse, two officials predicted, Iran will be forced to negotiate.
But the real question is the timing: A number of experts have forecast that Iran can withstand pressure from the blockade for months, not weeks. A U.S. intelligence assessment delivered to policy makers this week agrees, suggesting that Iran could make it at least three or four more months. If so, and I
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