Cinema

***** Sound of Freedom

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, January 23, 2024 03:13
VIEWED: 17421
PAGE 3 of 47

Wednesday, July 12, 2023 8:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
6ix, what do you expect to see for it's Last Week drop %? when Tuesday numbers come out?
Since that might not be fair, having July 4 a day off and all, what do you expect to see as the Last Week drop on Wednesday?



Yeah... That's not going to be fair at all. Not so much unfair, but not really a useful comparison.

Well... looking at The-Numbers right now and being amazed that SoF took 1st place again on Monday with a whopping $4 Million, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the drop for Wednesday will be negligible. In fact, I wonder if it would be a first time where a movie made more on a weekday during its second week than it did 7 days prior if that were to happen.

Why do I think it might actually make more this Wednesday than last?

Well take a look at any of the other movies playing right now that have had a decent box office, and then look at the money they made on Thursday night and tell me how many made more than that on the following Monday.

SPOILER ALERT: I see a few, but I don't think the extra money that Elemental made on Monday July 3rd counts with the holiday weekend. I certainly wouldn't count the Miles Morales sequel making more on Juneteenth than it did the previous Thursday. I don't think that Fast X making more on Memorial Day than the previous Thursday counts either.

But Sound of Freedom just did it. Taking 1st place from both Indy 5 and the weekend winner on Monday with $4,000,345 is extremely impressive when you consider that it only made $3,697,749 on the previous Thursday. It only fell $47k short of beating last Wednesday's number yesterday too.

So although I'd love to just tell you it's going to beat last Wednesday, I can't say that for sure. But if it doesn't, I don't see the loss being in the double digits. I am cautiously optimistic that it will gross more this Wednesday than it did last Wednesday.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maybe I'm wrong about SoF. I don't want to be. I want this movie to succeed beyond anyone's expectations. But it does have two huge things going against it...

1. The entire Legacy Media is telling the normies not to go see it.
2. I haven't seen it yet, but from what I hear from people who sing its praises is that it's not an easy watch. Unless people are going back to see it again while dragging other people to see it, I can't imagine a lot of people thinking "boy. I'm so excited to see this movie for a second time.".

1. I didn't know this.



Really? You posted in the thread I made about it in the RWED about 23 hours earlier than you made this post today. I had like 7 or 8 videos on the topic there.

Quote:

Does this mean that only folk who can think are allowed to watch it? That can seriously cut down on the potential saturation of audience. Let's see.... With about 267 million above 16, minus 85 million who supposedly are not allowed to think, that leaves only 182 million to see the film.


They don't care about the ones who voted. Everything is so highly politicised that they know with a single word they can get most Democrats not to watch it. (And Conversely, with strong word of mouth there's a very good chance that a lot of people who voted the other way might end up seeing it even though a lot of them still haven't even heard of it).

They care about the normies. The ones who don't pay any mind to any of the politics and the ones who don't vote. There's a lot of sleeping people that they don't want waking up for any reason.



Quote:

2. I do plan on seeing Sound of Freedom again, in cinema. The action, adventure is good, all the more due to being True Story. I plan to see at lest one film next Sunday. Either Dead Reckoning or SoF, or both.


I wasn't speaking in absolutes.

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Friday, July 14, 2023 2:09 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
6ix, what do you expect to see for it's Last Week drop %? when Tuesday numbers come out?
Since that might not be fair, having July 4 a day off and all, what do you expect to see as the Last Week drop on Wednesday?



Yeah... That's not going to be fair at all. Not so much unfair, but not really a useful comparison.

Well... looking at The-Numbers right now and being amazed that SoF took 1st place again on Monday with a whopping $4 Million, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the drop for Wednesday will be negligible. In fact, I wonder if it would be a first time where a movie made more on a weekday during its second week than it did 7 days prior if that were to happen.

Why do I think it might actually make more this Wednesday than last?


Well take a look at any of the other movies playing right now that have had a decent box office, and then look at the money they made on Thursday night and tell me how many made more than that on the following Monday.

SPOILER ALERT: I see a few, but I don't think the extra money that Elemental made on Monday July 3rd counts with the holiday weekend. I certainly wouldn't count the Miles Morales sequel making more on Juneteenth than it did the previous Thursday. I don't think that Fast X making more on Memorial Day than the previous Thursday counts either.

But Sound of Freedom just did it. Taking 1st place from both Indy 5 and the weekend winner on Monday with $4,000,345 is extremely impressive when you consider that it only made $3,697,749 on the previous Thursday. It only fell $47k short of beating last Wednesday's number yesterday too.

So although I'd love to just tell you it's going to beat last Wednesday, I can't say that for sure. But if it doesn't, I don't see the loss being in the double digits. I am cautiously optimistic that it will gross more this Wednesday than it did last Wednesday.



Yeah...

I'm getting pretty good at this.

Wednesday, July 5th: $4,047,558
Wednesday, July 12th: $4,424,714

That's a 9% increase from last week. (And I REALLY would love to know if that has ever happened to another movie that wasn't caused by either a holiday or a limited release film going wide release after it was tested out. It probably has, but I'd love to see the stats on that).

I didn't know if it was going to do it, because yesterday was Cheap Seat Tuesday. Almost nothing ever makes more money on Wednesday than it did on Tuesday. Take a look at Wednesday's numbers. SoF is the ONLY movie other than Super Mario Bros that did better yesterday than on Cheap Seat Tuesday. (And that was just a 3% increase on $11,410 from Tuesday, so it's hardly even worth mentioning...)

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2023/07/12

SoF had a 16% increase from Tuesday, where it looks like the average loss from Tuesday to Wednesday for every other movie in the theater was around 25%.





It should also be noted that even though SoF had no prayer of beating MI7 and likely never will for even a single day (words I don't imagine I'll be eating), now that we know Preview Night numbers are wrapped up into opening night numbers, MI7 made $8,516,660 on Wednesday night, and $7,000,000 on Tuesday night for a grand total of $15,516,660. SoF is holding its own against the its first actual successful blockbuster with a same two-day total of $8,253,957, or 53.2% of what MI7 pulled in.

Not to shabby against a 27-year-old-and-still-going-strong Tom Cruise franchise movie that had a 2071% higher production budget.

--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Friday, July 14, 2023 3:40 AM


Updating:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2

Quote:




Quote:


I suspect that this movie was pretty front-loaded on viewership and don't really expect it to stay in theaters all that long, but with good word of mouth it should have a pretty decent first weekend in theaters and very easily jump past that predicted $20 Million in the first 6 days of release with more than $14.2 Million already under its belt on Tuesday.

So, this front-loading theory of yours - how long does it last?
Does it pull ahead of Red Door $/screen over the weekend?
I don't expect it to take out MI:8.
Will SoF fall behind Indy5 and Red Door in $/screen?
How else do you measure?
--------------------------------------------

Sound of Freedom is currently listed by the Numbers as having the 6th most theaters showing it, after bumping up that figure for the weekend.
First place for the day, again.

6ix, what do you expect to see for it's Last Week drop %? when Tuesday numbers come out?
Since that might not be fair, having July 4 a day off and all, what do you expect to see as the Last Week drop on Wednesday?


I forgot to note that Sunday SoF was the only film to have greater Box Office than on Saturday.
Yes, today Indy 5 is in 3rd place with Monday's Box Office.

This Tuesday SoF had the 7th largest number of theaters -or 6th without counting Dead Reckoning. But it was 1st again in Box office, and 1st again in $ per theater.

2 weeks ago Tuesday was a $19.4M day total Box office, amid a hot week where theaters offered refuge from the weather.
Most films that day had increased 30-50% over the day before.
No movies that day averaged more than $1,000 per theater.

Last week Wednesday was a $19.4M Box Office day.

This week Monday was a $17.7M Box Office day.

Tuesday was a $18.7M day, plus another guesstimated $7M for Dead Reckoning midnight shows (apparently, $25.7M only by including Dead Reckoning figures, which be used again in the net day's totals). SoF was again #1 in Box Office, and again #1 in $ per theater. But 8 of the top 15 films earned less than the day before.

Wednesday was a $30M Box office Day, of which $15.5 is credited to Dead Reckoning, leaving $14.5 for the rest. But DR previews (midnight showings, presumably) were guesstimated at $7M, meaning it was really a $23M day - and still a $14.5M day for the rest. DR seemed to pull some money away from other films, and yet SoF actually increased Box Office (by 1/6) over the prior day, even though the cinemas must have been filled with DR crowds.

This week Tuesday seems like an outlier, a conundrum, I have not resolved that in my mind.

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Friday, July 14, 2023 3:45 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
6ix, what do you expect to see for it's Last Week drop %? when Tuesday numbers come out?
Since that might not be fair, having July 4 a day off and all, what do you expect to see as the Last Week drop on Wednesday?

Yeah... That's not going to be fair at all. Not so much unfair, but not really a useful comparison.

Well... looking at The-Numbers right now and being amazed that SoF took 1st place again on Monday with a whopping $4 Million, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the drop for Wednesday will be negligible. In fact, I wonder if it would be a first time where a movie made more on a weekday during its second week than it did 7 days prior if that were to happen.

Why do I think it might actually make more this Wednesday than last?


Well take a look at any of the other movies playing right now that have had a decent box office, and then look at the money they made on Thursday night and tell me how many made more than that on the following Monday.

SPOILER ALERT: I see a few, but I don't think the extra money that Elemental made on Monday July 3rd counts with the holiday weekend. I certainly wouldn't count the Miles Morales sequel making more on Juneteenth than it did the previous Thursday. I don't think that Fast X making more on Memorial Day than the previous Thursday counts either.

But Sound of Freedom just did it. Taking 1st place from both Indy 5 and the weekend winner on Monday with $4,000,345 is extremely impressive when you consider that it only made $3,697,749 on the previous Thursday. It only fell $47k short of beating last Wednesday's number yesterday too.

So although I'd love to just tell you it's going to beat last Wednesday, I can't say that for sure. But if it doesn't, I don't see the loss being in the double digits. I am cautiously optimistic that it will gross more this Wednesday than it did last Wednesday.

Yeah...
I'm getting pretty good at this.

Wednesday, July 5th: $4,047,558
Wednesday, July 12th: $4,424,714

That's a 9% increase from last week. (And I REALLY would love to know if that has ever happened to another movie that wasn't caused by either a holiday or a limited release film going wide release after it was tested out. It probably has, but I'd love to see the stats on that).

I didn't know if it was going to do it, because yesterday was Cheap Seat Tuesday. Almost nothing ever makes more money on Wednesday than it did on Tuesday. Take a look at Wednesday's numbers. SoF is the ONLY movie other than Super Mario Bros that did better yesterday than on Cheap Seat Tuesday. (And that was just a 3% increase on $11,410 from Tuesday, so it's hardly even worth mentioning...)

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2023/07/12

SoF had a 16% increase from Tuesday, where it looks like the average loss from Tuesday to Wednesday for every other movie in the theater was around 25%.


It should also be noted that even though SoF had no prayer of beating MI7 and likely never will for even a single day (words I don't imagine I'll be eating), now that we know Preview Night numbers are wrapped up into opening night numbers, MI7 made $8,516,660 on Wednesday night, and $7,000,000 on Tuesday night for a grand total of $15,516,660. SoF is holding its own against the its first actual successful blockbuster with a same two-day total of $8,253,957, or 53.2% of what MI7 pulled in.

Not to shabby against a 27-year-old-and-still-going-strong Tom Cruise franchise movie that had a 2071% higher production budget.
--------------------------------------------------
How you do anything is how you do everything.

SoF had an increase of # Theaters by more than 13% over the first week. An increase of 9% doesn't seem like much, but maybe the later showing at midnight for Dead Rec

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Friday, July 14, 2023 4:29 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
SoF had an increase of # Theaters by more than 13% over the first week. An increase of 9% doesn't seem like much, but maybe the later showing at midnight for Dead Reckoning had an effect.
Still, 2 Tuesdays in a row being #1 in Box Office, and #1 in $ per Theater.



9% may not seem like much, but my point is that if it isn't unprecedented, SoF at least finds itself now in a VERY exclusive club. Movies don't make more money then they did the previous week on the same day unless it is a holiday (or the rare occasion when a Limited Release turns Wide, or the even more rare occasion when a movie adds back theaters late in its run). Granted, there were more theaters open for SoF this Wednesday than last, but if there is an example of that mattering and a movie making more on a specific day of the week in its second week than it did on that day in its first week, I'd love for you to show me an example of it. This is the only time I'm aware of this ever happening.

Quote:

You might be looking for other films which did not get all the seats they could in the first week, and then got more due to demand in the next week.
I'm not sure if Maverick was like that, it had a slow rollout due to low critic scores, but word of mouth ramped it up.
I think that 2000 Mules also had more theaters in it's 2nd week, just because it couldn't get as many theaters it wanted in the first week.
These do not fit the mold of "Limited Release" - just an increase of theaters on the second week.



No. I'm not comparing this to Maverick at all. Maverick was a wide release. SoF was also a wide release. Anything that gets over 600 theaters is considered a wide release.

Maverick had 4,735 theaters on its opening weekend. It did increase to 4,751 in it's second weekend, but that's negligible since either number is ultra-wide and more than almost any other flick ever got in the US. Several times later in its release it added back theaters, which is also abnormal. Maverick took the standard path of always making less money on the same days on the following week, except for holidays and the later occasions when theaters were added back. This is the rare occasion I'm talking about when a movie does this when theaters are added, but it's different here because it didn't happen until Day 78 of release and again at Day 99 of release, then once again on Day 190 of release. When it was bumped up 16 extra theaters in Week 2, it made less money on every day in the 2nd week than it did the 1st week regardless. It was only the three times that it added back theaters after Week 11 of release that it had days where it did better with the extra theaters.

2000 Mules was never wide. 2000 Mules was a Limited release. It started at 415 theaters and went down every week for 5 weeks, down to 10 theaters before it was out of theaters. 2000 Mules only made less than 1.5 Million in total and made less money every week without any anomalies.

Quote:

I was curious if SoF had the same number of theaters that it had over the weekend, and it does.
I am curious how many theaters it will have come Friday - more? or less?



Yeah. They don't ever add new theaters (or take theaters away) for any movie except for on Fridays. It got an extra 316 theaters on Friday up until tonight. Bruce will know by tonight how many theaters it gets tomorrow.

My guess is that it's going to retain the 2,952 theaters it has now. Since it's having days where it does better than last week with that and it's constantly in 1st or 2nd place right now, I don't see any reason why they'd drop the number. But at the same time I don't see it increasing again right now either. Maybe if it blows up this weekend we'll see it in more theaters next weekend. 2,952 is a VERY respectable amount of theaters to be showing a movie with only a $14 Million budget by a no-name studio that isn't a Horror flick. I thin

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Friday, July 14, 2023 6:42 AM

I think I saw that a bunch of films lost theater count on Wednesday, due to Dead Reckoning scarfing them up.
But your point is regarding Fridays, which is often the normal day for new movies to premiere.

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Friday, July 14, 2023 9:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think I saw that a bunch of films lost theater count on Wednesday, due to Dead Reckoning scarfing them up.



If you saw that, I'd like to see it too. Links?

Quote:

But your point is regarding Fridays, which is often the normal day for new movies to premiere.



I've never seen otherwise before, but then again we're living in a weird time where we've had two straight weekends in a row where movies aren't coming out on their normal opening night, and it would make sense that they have to displace something else when they do that. I wouldn't be too happy if I were a studio that was getting bumped.



As I just stated in the TLM thread, I was wrong about my prediction on the new theater counts. SoF gained an insane 413 theaters for this week. With 3,265 theaters, it's downright a proper Wide release at this point.




--------------------------------------------------

How you do anything is how you do everything.

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Saturday, July 15, 2023 6:52 AM

After the film’s end credits, Caviezel himself urges fans to buy more tickets at the studio’s website in order to “make Sound of Freedom the Uncle Tom’s Cabin of 21st century slavery.” In the lead-up to its release, Angel anecdotally piggy-backed on a long tradition of Christian film marketing by targeting churches and encouraging block ticket sales in order to engage entire communities and spread word of mouth. (Some of the film’s detractors have disputed the movie’s box office success, noting that some theaters appear to be sold out when they aren’t, that user reviews on websites like IMDb read like bot spam, and that the online ticketing system Angel encourages fans to use may be vulnerable to manipulation.) In June, for the film’s July 4 release, Elon Musk offered the production free publicity; on July 1, Mel Gibson went viral for promoting the film. “The first step in eradicating this crime is awareness,” he intoned solemnly. “Go see Sound of Freedom.”

It’s easy to see how emotionally charged all of this is — it’s a hype machine that’s not just a hype machine, but a patriotic, perhaps even divinely mandated, responsibility. Adjacent to this urgent, awareness-raising narrative, however, sits QAnon — the baseless extremist conspiracy theory that high-powered liberals and elites are trafficking children and harvesting their adrenalin in order to attain eternal life. Sound of Freedom doesn’t explicitly reference QAnon or any of its most common narratives, and Ballard has brushed off the connection — but in the same breath he speaks of liberals “running interference” for traffickers by creating such rumors. Arguably more damning: Caviezel’s open embrace of QAnon. The actor has repeatedly referenced QAnon rhetoric; he recently promoted Sound of Freedom on former Trump-admin and extremist Steve Bannon’s podcast by referencing the aforementioned (false) adrenalin harvesting, a.k.a. “adrenochroming.” He also recently defended QAnon by comparing its detractors to Nazi and Klan apologists.

None of this directly links the film to QAnon. But it doesn’t help that reviewers who’ve been less than charitable about the film have been deluged with harassment from people calling them pedophiles and groomers. Rolling Stone’s Miles Klee, who, in his review, highlighted numerous examples of Sound of Freedom fans linking themselves to QAnon, told journalist Marisa Kabas that “the intensity of the death threats and pedophile smears outstripped any previous hate campaign I’ve experienced in my career.” (Disclaimer: Both Klee and Kabas are former colleagues and friends.) Still, Klee also noted that to the film’s fans he was just “a convenient embodiment” of evil for “a demographic that thinks child abusers and groomers make up the entire government, entertainment industry, and media, and all run cover for each other.”

https://www.vox.com/culture/23794355/sound-of-freedom-controversy-true
-story-qanon


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, July 16, 2023 2:30 AM


Updating:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I think the green numbers at The Numbers is prelim or estimated figures, and black are the real figures.
They just turned black for the weekend.
Sunday SoF jumped up to highest take per screen, beating Indy5 and Red Door. It was estimated behind Red Door.

Also, every single day since release, SoF has more $ per screen that Indy5.
Even when it added more than 13% more theaters for the weekend.


let's see...
For the days when working folk are not working...

Date | DBO Rnk /Scrn Rnk
04Jul 14.24 1 $5,407 1
08Jul 7.176 3 $2,431 2
09Jul 7.295 3 $2,471 1

other days...
05Jul 4.047 2 $1,537 1
06Jul 3.697 3 $1,404 2
07Jul 5.208 3 $1,764 2
10Jul 4.000 1 $1,355 1
11Jul 3.829 1 $1,297 1
12Jul 4.424 2 $1,499 2
13Jul 4.576 2 $1,550 2
14Jul 7.491 2 $2,294 2

Quote:

Quote:

I suspect that this movie was pretty front-loaded on viewership and don't really expect it to stay in theaters all that long, but with good word of mouth it should have a pretty decent first weekend in theaters and very easily jump past that predicted $20 Million in the first 6 days of release with more than $14.2 Million already under its belt on Tuesday.

So, this front-loading theory of yours - how long does it last?
Does it pull ahead of Red Door $/screen over the weekend?
I don't expect it to take out MI:8.
Will SoF fall behind Indy5 and Red Door in $/screen?
How else do you measure?


Indy 5 is staying in 4th place, with about 1/3 of the Average $ per theater of SoF. Red Door seems to be getting a little more than half of the average $ per theater as SoF is getting each day.
Dead Reckoning keeps revising down it's figures when the hard numbers come out, less that their guesstimates. Red Door is doing the same each day - green preliminary guesstimates are lowered when the hard black numbers come out. While DR and RD are overestimating their Box Office, SoF has larger actual Box Office that the estimates.

Thursday SoF had less than 114% of the theaters it had a week prior, but had 124% of the Box Office it had the first Thursday.

SoF added 313 theaters on Friday, a gain of 10.6%. It's Box Office was 144% of what it had a week before - while Dead Reckoning was ruling the BO.
I think that was about 54% of it's Production Budget, on it's 2nd Friday.

There is a theory about SoF being "front-loaded" but that seems to be backward.

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Tuesday, July 18, 2023 6:43 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I suspect that this movie was pretty front-loaded on viewership and don't really expect it to stay in theaters all that long, but with good word of mouth it should have a pretty decent first weekend in theaters and very easily jump past that predicted $20 Million in the first 6 days of release with more than $14.2 Million already under its belt on Tuesday.

And no matter what happens, it will be the movie that embarrassed Indiana Jones, Disney, Lucasfilm, Bob Iger and Kathleen Kennedy by taking the crown from their most expensive movie of 2023 in only it's 5th day in the theaters. An amazing feat, even if we don't see it repeated again this weekend or otherwise going forward.

It didn't beat Indy 5 yesterday, but it did do another $4,047,558 in business, giving it $18,289,621 in only 2 days. It's going to sleepwalk past $20 Million in only 3 days.

No numbers on Indy yet, but that's another correct prediction.

$3,697,749 on Thursday, for a grand total of $21,987,370 in only 3 days for Sound of Freedom.

Though it looks to have taken only 3rd place this weekend like Bruce predicted it would from the previews, it will cross $40 Million in only 6 days, which is double what they thought it would in that time frame.

I've also now heard that the budget was as low as $14 Million, and not the $20 Million that was initially reported.

Either way, it's already overcome the rule of thumb, grossing over $40 Million over a $20 Million budget. Given that there was hardly any marketing budget at all spent on this, if that $14 Million production budget is true it's already made some decent money in under a week.

I still think this was quite a heavily front loaded movie as far as attendance goes, but it should remain in theaters at least as long as Angel Studio's 1st movie earlier this year, which means it will probably get about 4 or 5 weeks in the box office. I could see it making $60 to $70 million in ticket sales by that time. Not bad for a movie nobody knew about that doesn't appear to have gotten any kind of international release.

Who knows? If word of mouth on this thing is strong it might even do better than that.

Golly. We can hope that Sound of Freedom is in cinema for 4 or 5 weeks, and then maybe it can make $60-70M by that time.

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