Some Covid-19 thoughts
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Monday, September 29, 2025 18:59
VIEWED: 301579
PAGE 46 of 384
Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
So, speaking of excess deaths, a 'back of the envelope' calculation based on extremely optimistic data indicates that if the country gets infected at the same rate as NYC (80%, coincidentally when herd immunity is supposed to take hold), then a minimum of half a million people in the US will die of COVID-19. That's roughly 10x the number of people who die from all influenza viruses combined in an entire 'flu' year.
Or if those studies were right about people with antibodies that were never tested, you could look at the optomistic figure that 80x's as many people have it that have been tested and the numbers of deaths are less than half of what you just mentioned.
Current Confirmed Cases: 841,556
X 80 = 67,324,480 hypothetical cases.
US Population: 325,000,000
325,000,000 / 67,324,480 = 4.8
Current Death Count: 46,688
46,688 x 4.8 = 224,102
CDC estimates that 61,000 people died of the flu in the 2017-2018 season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
That would only be 3.67 times as many people who died from the flu a few years ago.
And once again it must be stressed that most of these deaths are people who weren't long for the world because of old age and other severe health issues.
Many of them might also have had the flu and would have died from it, but we're only counting deaths that are even remotely adjacent to The Coomph as Coomph deaths in 2020.
We've got to do whatever we can to justify all of the overreactions at this point.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I wasn't just making up numbers.
I took the antibody rate number 0.04 from the USC study and applied it to Los Angeles County population 10M. The reason I applied it to Los Angeles County only is because that's where the test subjects were selected from.
I calculated the number of infected people in Los Angeles County from the infection rate X the population of 10M 0.04 X 10M = 400,000 infected.
Then I calculated the deaths/ infected ratio using the deaths from the LACounty website 750 / 400,000 = 0.001875
I checked the reasonableness of the ratio by applying it to NYC. I applied that ratio to the number of deaths in NYC ~10,000 to calculate the number of infected and got ~5.5M infected in NYC out of 8M. (Using both the Santa Clara and USC studies and applying them to the entire state of California, then using that factor for NYC, I got 12M people infected - which is impossible in a population of 8M and obviously not a reasonable number.)
Assuming that 80% of people in the US get infected that'll be 330M x .80 = 264M infected. If the deaths-per-infected ratio 0.001875 in LACounty is correct, that means 495,000 people will die in the US by the time we (possibly) reach herd immunity, or roughly half a million.
From the CDC influenza deaths
2014-2015 51,000
2015-2016 23,000
2016-2017 38,000
2017-2018 61,000
2018-2019 34,200
Average 41440
But I didn't want to be optimistic about influenza numbers so I decided 50,000 deaths would be a good conservative and defensible number to use.
CONCLUSION: 10x the number of people could die from COVID-19 as in a typical influenza year.
I didn't make any numbers up or use any unsupported assumptions. I used data as it exists to date.
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You used data that you wanted to use to make a point that you wanted to make.
So did I.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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I used all the available data at the moment, and picked middle of the road values as being most likely. I even ran my calculations through for 'reasonableness' - you know - like not getting 150% of NYC infected.
You used wrong figures (like the US population), unsourced numbers, and extreme estimates to make your point.
If you were working for bush the dubya, you'd be accused of cherry picking.
Which is exactly what you did.
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You've been getting data from the WHO, who has been deepthroating China so bad it is choking on Xi's balls.
Fuck your numbers. You're wrong.
#GETTHEFUCKOUTOFYOURHOUSE
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Wrong again! 
I got my antibody data from the USC study - which got similar percentages as the Santa Cruz (Stanford) Study. LACounty death data from the county website. NYC and US population from wikipedia. And my numbers via calculator.
Where are YOU getting YOUR numbers from?
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Your mom.
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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And JACK posts the ULTIMATE in 5-year-old tantrumming!
Got anything else adult and intelligent to post there, JACK?
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SIX is just pulling stuff outta his ass, again.
I think what happened is that he looked at Trump's guidelines for reopening states' economies and realized that (1) they were more restrictive than mine and (2) Big Daddy Trump didn't have his back.
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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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