Some Covid-19 thoughts
POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Monday, September 29, 2025 18:59
VIEWED: 301579
PAGE 39 of 384
Hey Jo
I'm glad you're OK!
As for the 'news' - ay yai yai ... how can you subject yourself to fox? That's pure torture.
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SECOND
There are some VERY big assumptions in your quoted figures.
One is that all the fatalities have been counted as of now. Since COVID-19 kills by pneumonia ... by heart attack (heart attacks are occurring in SARS-COV-2 infected people at 5X normal rates, but aren't being counted), by kidney failure, by DIC, by cytokine storm ... and since many people are dying suddenly, at home, and not being counted ... AND since deaths are still catching up to infections ... it's guaranteed that the official case fatality rate will go up. And it's guaranteed that the real case fatality rate (as distinguished from the official one) is significantly under-counted. And probably by a factor of far greater than 2, given the prevalence of 'heart attack' deaths.
Another is that exposure = antibodies = immunity which has yet to be shown.
A related issue is the assumption that exposure = antibodies = immunity = vaccines. I remind you that it's been over 4 decades since the AIDS epidemic, and there is STILL no HIV vaccine, even though people develop antibodies to it. There is no automatic conclusion that a vaccine will be possible.
And even if an effective vaccine can be found, and manufactured, it'll be years to a mass market.
Another assumption is that remdesivir will be effective. The jury is still out even though it looks promising.
And finally, your assumption is that in our 'greatest' medical system on the planet, people will be able to afford whatever treatment might work. I can imagine the price being quite high when it comes out on the market. And Remdesivir or equivalent only works if you can get it, and get it early enough to make a difference. I'd bet you ain't seen insurance haggling like you will with an expensive new treatment.
Your post looks at the absolute best possible scenario. It doesn't cover the range of how badly things could go if these assumptions turn out to not be true.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
SECOND
There are some VERY big assumptions in your quoted figures.
There are some VERY big assumptions in any of the bullshit numbers you've been quoting as well.
Quote:
One is that all the fatalities have been counted as of now. Since COVID-19 kills by pneumonia ... by heart attack (heart attacks are occurring in SARS-COV-2 infected people at 5X normal rates, but aren't being counted), by kidney failure, by DIC, by cytokine storm ... and since many people are dying suddenly, at home, and not being counted ... AND since deaths are still catching up to infections ... it's guaranteed that the official case fatality rate will go up. And it's guaranteed that the real case fatality rate (as distinguished from the official one) is significantly under-counted. And probably by a factor of far greater than 2, given the prevalence of 'heart attack' deaths.
Bullshit. You can't just throw a bunch of deaths that were going to happen from other reasons in there, you fucking fear monger. The number they quoted at 2x is conservative and easily covers it.
Quote:
Another is that exposure = antibodies = immunity which has yet to be shown.
It certainly has not been proven otherwise either.
Quote:
A related issue is the assumption that exposure = antibodies = immunity = vaccines. I remind you that it's been over 4 decades since the AIDS epidemic, and there is STILL no HIV vaccine, even though people develop antibodies to it. There is no automatic conclusion that a vaccine will be possible.
AIDS isn't real. Even if it was, it certainly wasn't an epidemic.
Quote:
Your post looks at the absolute best possible scenario. It doesn't cover the range of how badly things could go if these assumptions turn out to not be true.
Says Karen, who has been posting that the sky is falling and attacking anybody who doesn't buy into her always-the-worst-case-scenario panic.
Fucking Russian agent. ;)
Do Right, Be Right. :)
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Quote:The absolutely best possible scenario is a Senate with 33 or fewer Republicans, which would make possible Medicare-for-all and Remdesivir-for-all. I don't think that will ever happen unless GOP controlled states leave the Union; ending slavery wasn't possible until the Confederate States withdrew their Senators from Washington D.C.
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
SECOND
And finally, your assumption is that in our 'greatest' medical system on the planet, people will be able to afford whatever treatment might work. I can imagine the price being quite high when it comes out on the market. And Remdesivir or equivalent only works if you can get it, and get it early enough to make a difference. I'd bet you ain't seen insurance haggling like you will with an expensive new treatment.
Your post looks at the absolute best possible scenario. It doesn't cover the range of how badly things could go if these assumptions turn out to not be true.
www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/expulsion_cases/CivilWar_E
xpulsion.htm
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Here is a chart showing deaths per week for common causes including heart attack. I wish I could get the image to port over but it won't.
https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webpformat=jpeg&auto=webp
Anyway, there is a MUCH more complete chart in the same format specifically comparing Covid-19 deaths per week to (for example) the 2017-2018 flu and 2017-2018 flu+pneumonia. I wish I could give you a link to the url just at that frame, or post a screenshot of this, but not possible from here. So if you land anywhere between 14:40 to 15:35 you'll see it.
SECOND: I don't bother to look at "cases" because the number is hostage to how much testing is being done, as I've pointed out ever since I started posting on this thing IN CHINA. So the "case fatality rate" is probably inaccurate, ESPECIALLY when the number of test kits is so limited and/or the testing criteria is so damn narrrow that you basically have to be in hopsital first. (Thank you CDC!)
KIKI has been posting (when numbers are being quoted) since forever that "A factor of X60 may apply" which was a pretty damn good guess, since the Santa Clara study estimates a factor of 50-80 undercount.
So neither you nor the Santa Clara study are telling us anything new. It's like the Spanish flu ... nobody knew the true infection rate so nobody knew the true "case fatality rate" .... but that didn't stop the bodies from piling up.
Which brings me to my point: it's harder to ignore deaths.
Let's do a little math here: If the true rate of infection is at about 1%, and we need to get to roughly 85% infection rate in order to get to "herd immunity" (assuming such a thing is actually develops and people become robustly immune for the long term, once recovered) how many deaths until herd immunity is reached?
Well... 85X the number of current deaths (plus we would have to project about two weeks into the future to capture the deaths of people who are currently infected but who haven't died yet).
So, assuming 1000 new deaths per day for two weeks (which is probably an underestimation) we get 14,000 deaths over the next two weeks
The CURRENT death toll is 38,200 for the USA.
So (38,200 + 14,000) X 85 = 4.44 MILLION deaths until herd immunity.
Well, if you don't like my forward projection of death from the current rate of infection, how about we just go with current deaths?
38,200 X 85 = 3.25 MILLION
Hmmm... better, but not great.
Math. It works.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:Trump doesn't do math; he does feelings -- his feelings are hurt:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND:
So, assuming 1000 new deaths per day for two weeks (which is probably an underestimation) we get 14,000 deaths over the next two weeks
The CURRENT death toll is 38,200 for the USA.
So (38,200 + 14,000) X 85 = 4.44 MILLION deaths until herd immunity.
Well, if you don't like my forward projection of death from the current rate of infection, how about we just go with current deaths?
38,200 X 85 = 3.25 MILLION
Hmmm... better, but not great.
Math. It works.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump tweeted this afternoon.
No matter what you do for the Do Nothing Democrats, no matter how GREAT a job you are doing, they will only respond to their Fake partners in the Lamestream Media in the negative, even in a time of crisis. I thought it would be different, but it’s not. In fact, it’s even worse. Example! V.P. Mike Pence held a conference call yesterday with all Democrat Senators. He gave them everything that they would have wanted to hear in terms of gaining ground on the CoronaVirus, but nothing that anyone could have said, including “it’s over”, could have made them happy, or even a little bit satisfied. They were RUDE and NASTY. This is their political playbook, and they will use it right up to the election on November 3rd. They will not change because they feel that this is the only way they can win. America will not be fooled!!!
12:20 PM · Apr 18, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1251561224120254464
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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SECOND- YOU don't do math. YOUR feelings are hurt. Stop pretending that you care about anything other than your own butt-hurt, willya?
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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Quote:Signym, the possible millions of Covid-19 deaths that you are predicting was brought to Trump's attention and he tweeted that it was "RUDE and NASTY" to bring that to his attention. Trump's feelings were very hurt.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SECOND- YOU don't do math. YOUR feelings are hurt. Stop pretending that you care about anything other than your own butt-hurt, willya?
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump tweeted this afternoon:
No matter what you do for the Do Nothing Democrats, no matter how GREAT a job you are doing, they will only respond to their Fake partners in the Lamestream Media in the negative, even in a time of crisis. I thought it would be different, but it’s not. In fact, it’s even worse. Example! V.P. Mike Pence held a conference call yesterday with all Democrat Senators. He gave them everything that they would have wanted to hear in terms of gaining ground on the CoronaVirus, but nothing that anyone could have said, including “it’s over”, could have made them happy, or even a little bit satisfied. They were RUDE and NASTY. This is their political playbook, and they will use it right up to the election on November 3rd. They will not change because they feel that this is the only way they can win. America will not be fooled!!!
12:20 PM · Apr 18, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1251561224120254464
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly
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Quote:It was based on a UCLA study that looked at infection rate in China, and the number of infected that came here to the US before any airport screenings or travel restrictions were put in place; and an estimate of unimpeded, undetected community spread from them. They were pretty spot-on.
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KIKI has been posting (when numbers are being quoted) since forever that "A factor of X60 may apply" which was a pretty damn good guess, since the Santa Clara study estimates a factor of 50-80 undercount.
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
ETA: I did post the link, but it would be a chore digging it out from wherever I put it.
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I think that people should be waking up to the fact that WE DON'T MANUFACTURE ANYTHING HERE ANYMORE.
Been running into a lot of unavailable items lately, not because people are hoarding or panic-buying but because "supply chain disrupted"
So, starting with the most urgent and obvious and including some unonbvious items:
N95 masks. Made in China.
Toilet paper: Made in China
Bolts: Made in China
Brackets: Made in China
Spray bottles: Made in China
Fine chemicals; Made in China
Pharma raw materials: Made in China*
*
Quote:https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Avigan-ingredient-shorta
Avigan ingredient shortage hits Japan stockpile plan
Lack of element from China spurs to push to find domestic suppliers
ge-hits-Japan-stockpile-plan?utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=one%20time%20newsletter&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_content=article%20link&del_type=3&pub_date=20200418150000&seq_num=2&si=%%user_id%%
See how this goes?
Chips: Made in China
Fabric: Made in China
Agricultural chemicals: Made in China
Industrial chemicals: Made in China.
However did we get the idea that it was a reasonable thing to let somebody else do almost all of our manufacturing for us???
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake
#WEARAMASK
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