The effect of Moore's Law in the 'Verse

POSTED BY: Cazaril
UPDATED: Sunday, January 24, 2010 15:07
VIEWED: 5725
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CAZARIL

Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:34 AM

I was writing another post, and had mentioned something about computers. That got me thinking about how powerful computers will be by the time Mal and the gang are using them.

Intel Co-founder Gordon E. Moore described a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years. While he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months". It has been suggested that an Intel colleague might have factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months.

Although technically not what Moore said, let's use the 18 months to double performance misconception, and assume Moore was right.

That means that the computers citizens of the 'Verse will be using are going to have a performance of to the power of 338...

Throw in a version of Moore's law that states that RAM and hard-drives (Kryder's Law) do the same thing, and that's will be one tremendously powerful (and probably small) machine.

Now of course there does exist one other concept/principle to help offset all this... And that is The Great Moore's Law Compensator (TGMLC), generally referred to as bloat. Which is the principle that successive generations of computer software acquire enough bloat to offset the performance gains predicted by Moore's Law.

Can you imagine how big and unwieldy Windows 2517 will be...

Caz

BYTEMITE

Saturday, January 23, 2010 2:40 AM

Apparently all computers in the verse operate off of the cortex itself, which I guess serves as the operating system. Be like if your computer actually ran on the internet.

Probably the biggest part of the cortex screens we see is the ansibles since the network is hundreds of AU across.

CAZARIL

Saturday, January 23, 2010 3:06 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Bytemite:
Apparently all computers in the verse operate off of the cortex itself, which I guess serves as the operating system. Be like if your computer actually ran on the internet.

Probably the biggest part of the cortex screens we see is the ansibles since the network is hundreds of AU across.

Do they!!?? I never got that impression... I always got the impression that the Cortex was the equivalent of the Internet. Local computing was done within the local machine: programs could be stored and run without a connection. But linked to the Cortex you had greater data sources, and a means to communicate to others.

Computers that are nothing more then dumb terminals to the Cortex sounds wrong to me. That would mean that Serenity couldn't function without a signal. She'd be easy to track, and identify. It wouldn't be "Put a flag out on a rogue vessel classification Firefly, wanted for possible stolen goods", it would be "Do a Cortex override, and reroute that ship to us". Plus, Wash jamming the Cortex in the Pilot, might mess with navigation. I think computers are still self contained devices, that might or might not have Cortex access (which is some upgraded, possibly ansible version, of cellular/Wi-Fi that computers currently use)

Also, realize that my post was the musings of a computer geek/junkie, with no real question... And I figured I would share.

Caz

BYTEMITE

Saturday, January 23, 2010 3:38 AM

Unfortunately, that's EXACTLY what's going on, both with Serenity and most computers in the verse. Hell, even most of what we would consider tv screens are actually cortex screens.

The reason is, the Alliance controls the cortex, and any screen that's cortex enabled functions both ways, transceiver and receiver. Plus all the manufacturing companies are subject to Alliance rules and regulations... Remember the landlock that gets put on Serenity in Jaynestown? Cortex signal.

It's all very Big Brother-ish, and the Alliance kind of just gets away with it. The good news is there's so much information going around that the Alliance doesn't have the resources to monitor even one percent of it. Only the most suspicious traffic, or specific reports about certain bar altercations with triggered government made assassins and then reviewing the visual recording made by one of the cortex screens that broadcasted the triggering signal from inside the bar.

When Inara is selecting or talking to clients, she's on the Cortex.

Also, Wash's nav computers are cortex too, in Out of Gas, Wash is the one who saw Simon's new arrest warrant with his birthday and told Mal and the others.

Simon does have to be very careful, he wears those special glasses so that he doesn't inadvertently get his retinas scanned, and you can be certain he doesn't use any of the cortex connections on Serenity.

KINGEICHOLZ

Saturday, January 23, 2010 3:41 AM

I did a paper on this when i was at Yale this is some of it
In the the not-too-distant future, computers will become more intelligent than human beings, and eventually achieve god-like powers. Eventually, an all-powerful God Computer will emerge, which will be the savior of mankind. This God Computer will have the ability to reach into the past and resurrect dead human beings, and create a paradise for them to live in forever. If this sounds like science fiction or religious nonsense, many of our most advanced scientists today say that it is not nonsense, but is already starting to happen.Champions of the God Computer theory include mathematician Vernor Vinge and inventor Ray Kurzweil. But their theory is also heavily dependent upon some of the most brilliant minds of the century, especially physicists Freeman Dyson, Paul Dirac, John Bernal and J.B.S. Haldane. One more major proponent of the idea that a super God Computer will save mankind is Dr. Frank Tipler of Tulane University, who spells out his theory in painstaking details -- including mathematical proofs -- in his 500-page book, “The Physics of Immortality.”

It’s interesting to note that the great science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke once said: “If there is no God, mankind must invent him.” And that’s just what we have started to. With the invention of the computer, and the rapidly increasing advances in the intelligence of computers, we will soon reach what is known as a “technological singularity.”A technological singularity is "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development. When this singularity is achieved, humans as we exist today will cease to be the top species on the planet, and the most intelligent. Computers will be many time smarter than man, and we will be like children to them, and they like gods to us. Eventually, computers will advance to the point where there is no difference between them and our current Judeo-Christian concept of an all-knowing and all-powerful God. Because the God Computer will be able to manipulate time, all energy and all matter, it will be able reach back to the very beginning of the universe and, basically, do whatever it wants.Tipler points out that all living beings, including humans, can be represented as information in the universe. He writes: “...all information contained in the whole of human history, including every detail of every human life, will be available for analysis by the collectivity of life in the far future ... in principle ... it is possible for life in the far future to construct, using this information, a perfectly accurate simulation of these past lives.”Tipler also states: “The dead will be raised when the computer capacity of the universe is so large that the amount of capacity required to store all possible human simulations is an insignificant fraction of the entire capacity.”

CAZARIL

Saturday, January 23, 2010 7:09 AM

Bytemite:

All active Cortex connections are two way - no arguement there. I look at this as someone hacking your home connection, and turning on your digital camera and microphone (think: Live Free or Die Hard). Except these feeds are probably buffered somewhere, and then recorded over after a certain period of time.

As for the land lock when they visited Higgins' Moon: It could easily be standard procedure to voluntarily give partial control of a ship to local traffic control. This would be locally mandated so that any fees are guaranteed to be paid, and no one attempts to just fly away after a crime has been committed. You request clearance, accept local traffic control's sub-route, and land. On take off, your request release and as long as you are cleared, the sub-route terminates and you are clear to go on your way. (think: Windows remote assistance. You have to invite, or accept, a help request before they get access to your system).

Inara talking on the Cortex: is just the 'Verse's version of Video over Internet Protocol.

Wash catching Simon's new warrant: This could be a Cortex version of a web-crawler or filter, that looks for anything about the crew (or whatever they are set to look for).

Plus The Cortex for Serenity seems to be controlled from the bridge... In "Heart of Gold", is the first to get Nandi's message, and has to send it over to her shuttle. In "Serenity - BDM" Wash has to send Mal, Inara's message. And in "Our Mrs. Reynolds", Saffron disables all the Cortex connections from the bridge, when she shorts it out (Remember, Inara went to the other shuttle because her connection failed)... So it appears that the ship is networked to the Cortex, link we currently use routers in our home, and the "Cortex Modem" is on the bridge... Wash appears to have to manually route incoming calls to there correct terminal, so it would seem only natural that any crawler they have going would report it on the bridge, and he would be the first to see it (Remember the original switch board operators connecting phone calls.. That's Wash). Also, after Saffron did her number on Serenity, it wasn't "The Cortex is down", it was "she went straight for the thermal cap".

As for Simon not getting Retinal scanned.. I'm sure it's a concern, but it can't be a huge one. I only remember him with glasses in the Pilot. On Ariel ("Ariel"), running around the hospital.. No glasses. On Beaumonde (Serenity - BDM), he's leaving the ship for good... No glasses. Even when he enters the Maidenhead.. No glasses... He never has them on while he's on Serenity, and he never has ducked out of stepping on to the bridge because of getting scanned.

And there is stuff to suggest against your theory too... The biggest is the Serenity's interaction with the authorities...

In the Pilot, they get away from the feds at least twice (After stealing the cargo, and after Kaylee is shot). If the Cortex was needed to control the ship, the Alliance could just run a search for the Firefly vessel X,Y,Z coordinates, and override ship's control. And considering the way Alliance are portrayed, they wouldn't have told Wash to stay on course and prepare for prisoner transport, they'd have taken command of Serenity from the wave Dobson sent and just brought her in.

In "Our Mrs. Reynolds", as they are leaving Triumph, there is an Alliance cruiser that just breaks atmosphere.. Instead of halting all outbound traffic with an override (via the Cortex), Serenity escapes (which would suggest no local traffic control).

In "Serenity - BDM", the Operative needs a pulse beacon to locate Serenity. A Cortex controlled vessel's location would always be know (Think: Cellphones. They can basically tell where you are by which tower you are on).

And yes, in "Serenity - BDM", the Operative piggybacks the signal as Mal is viewing video feeds, but he is on the Cortex at the time. And while Mal tells him they aren't going to get the location from the feed, but that's like using a proxy server to hide your IP address. Great for covering your tracks,

ZZETTA13

Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:09 PM

You guys are scaring me!

So, in the future Parliament = super/duper computers, and Parliament is bad. We’re doomed.

Z

CALHOUN

Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:33 PM

Quote:
KingEICHOLZ wrote:
Friday, January 22, 2010 17:41
I did a paper on this when i was at Yale this is some of it

zzzzz... so you were kicked out of Yale for plagiarism?

BYTEMITE

Saturday, January 23, 2010 4:22 PM

Well, you may be right, I'm looking through my Serenity RPG book, which, while not officially canon, Joss Whedon did help with. I can't find much information on what computers use for their OS. It's kind of inconclusive, nothing is stated specifically.

Uses are probably limited if a computer doesn't have cortex access. On the other hand, there aren't a lot of cortex access terminals, public or private, that have any storage capacity. Most computers that use the cortex store data and files on the cortex, or files can be downloaded onto data discs.

I did find mention to computers that DO have a cortex based OS. As far as I can tell, those are only found on the core planets. And there are computers that operate independently, though mostly in the form of little data books or encyclopedias (like Simon has), but I don't think they access the cortex.

The glasses, however, are what they are. The comic book Better Days explains their use and why Simon wears them at times. I don't know why he doesn't wear them more often, I suppose this could be retconning, or writing inconsistency.

Core planet cortex:

Quote:
Cortex Terminal, Personal Access: What most
Core citizens use. Essentially a 2’x 2’ touchscreen
monitor, 5” thick, with a moderately sized base
to allow for the rest of the equipment, Cortex
terminals are a phone, a computer, and a TV all
rolled into one—to put it in the terms of folk back
on Earth-that-Was. You can surf the Cortex, access
almost any information (assuming you can pay for
a pass code), send waves, use progs, store almost
limitless amounts of data… assuming, of course,
that the gorram thing wants to cooperate. Since a
terminal is just that—a terminal—sometimes you
can lose Cortex access if a satellite or transmission
station goes down, and then you lose whatever you
were working on, and have to hope your connection
gets going mighty quick, because you have no
storage capacity.

Example of a computer with storage capacity, and so potentially having it's own OS:

Quote:
Dedicated Sourcebox: Expensive sourceboxes
that not only act as cortex terminals, but can also store up
to 200 terabytes of data and maintain a terminal link
for up to a mile around.

IMNOTHERE

Saturday, January 23, 2010 4:36 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by KingEICHOLZ:
If this sounds like science fiction

...That's because it is. Nothing wrong with Science Fiction, but don't confuse it with reality.

First, however powerful conventional computers become, the science of AI is lagging far, far behind.

When a computer beats the human chess grand master, it is because it has used "brute force" to simulate all possible variations of the game several moves ahead, and picked the optimum based on specific criteria determined by its human programmers. The mystery is that the human chess player is not doing that, but still plays a strong game, and that you can just explain the rules of chess to a smart 8-year-old and they'll almost immediately be able to beat a computer programmed to make random, legal moves.

The computer can't autonomously take its "experience" at chess and apply it to win a space battle or fix the US economy. Even if the mathematics is the same, human programmers will have to reprogram the computer to apply it to the new data. "Intelligence" isn't about whether you can crunch the numbers - its about making the connections.

Never say never, but the current state of the art in is a flatworm, not HAL. Artificial Stupidity is an aspiration so don't hold your breath for Artificial Omniscience.

Of course, there's always the possibility of intelligence appearing as an "emergent property" of a sufficiently complex computer. Speaking as an emergent property of the laws of Physics, I can't rule that one out - but that doesn't mean its inevitable, or even likely.

Evolutionary algorithms are used, but they're tightly constrained and specialized, with success criteria chosen by humans. Plus, responsible programmers take precautions ( http://xkcd.com/534/).

Quote:
Champions of the God Computer theory include mathematician

...and (very good) Science Fiction writer. Of course, if you believe his SF you'll know that our zone of the galaxy is covered by a suppression field that prevents computers developing intelligence.

Quote:
Vernor Vinge

Quote:
A technological singularity is "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development. When this singularity is achieved,

...you would have no way of predicting what would happen afterwards. That's why its called the singularity.

Quote:
humans as we exist today will cease to be the top species on the planet

Or, the new silicon star child would bugger off into the N'th dimension to contemplate the whichness of the why and leave us to our own devices (you'll see that possibility in the SF of Vinge, Banks et. al, too).

Quote:

Because the God Computer will be able to manipulate time, all energy and all matter,

Ah, yes. The "God Computer" theory in SF usually relies on fringe quantum mechanics or "informational universe" notions to allow the computer intelligence to start performing magic in the physical world (usually just at the point our human protagonist tries to pull the plug). Great SF, but don't get it confused with established science.

Don't get me wrong, the Singularity theory makes for great SF (Vinges "Fire upon the Deep"/"Deepness in the Sky" are great books, or there's Ken Mcleods "Fall Revolution" series, and many others...) and like all good SF it has a thread of credibility and is almost impossible to disprove - but that doesn't mean its a scientific fact.

Quote:
CAZARIL:
Intel Co-founder Gordon E. Moore described a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.

Of course, part of the reason that was such a successful prediction is that it got pretty much taken up as a performance target by the semiconductor industry...

One thing to bear in mind in Firefly is that its pretty obvious that technological development has taken a hit post-diaspora. This is sensible - hi

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