Movies that opened small...but finished big

POSTED BY: canttakesky
UPDATED: Saturday, October 8, 2005 15:59
VIEWED: 5435
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GREGGALLINSON

Saturday, October 8, 2005 6:44 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Groosalugg:
The original Terminator (1984) opened at $4 mil.

Yeah, but that was over 20 years ago. Apples and oranges, unless that's adjusted for inflation.

GROOSALUGG

Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by GreggAllinson:
Quote:
Originally posted by Groosalugg:
The original Terminator (1984) opened at $4 mil.

Yeah, but that was over 20 years ago. Apples and oranges, unless that's adjusted for inflation.

No, it's not, but it's just another of those movies that became very successful based largely on word of mouth. It didn't get ANY television advertising before it opened, and was pegged by the studio as a quick-to-video-and-then-forgotten 'B' movie, but people went to see it, and told their friends about it, and eventually, voila: you have Arnold saying "She'll be back" in T3 and thus almost singlehandedly ruining the entire franchise...

ZERONULL

Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:54 AM

Per imdb, Star Wars grossed $1,554,475 (USA) (30 May 1977) (43 Screens) during its opening weekend. Although, that was a long time ago....

CANTTAKESKY

Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:48 PM

This according to boxofficemojo.com. Star Wars opened wide at $6.8 mil. That was 1977. To put it in context, its budget was $11 million. Its 1977-1978 domestic gross was $215 mil (stayed in theatres for about a year). That's making 20x its budget--that would be like Serenity making $800 million today. Uh, fortunately, we only want to double our production budget. I would have to say Star Wars is way beyond our league.

Maybe Serenity 2 can take on Star Wars. :)

Can't Take My Gorram Sky

SUASOR

Saturday, October 8, 2005 2:41 PM

Star Wars openled larger than anyone expected, and then took off like a rocket. To make those 1977 into dollars compatible with 2005 bucks, multiply by three (the inflation since then.) The big thing with Star Wars was that it revived a genre that had only recently died out, the movie serial. Until the early 1960s, theaters would show half hour serials (I think Flash Gordon was one) on weekends, when the kids of all ages would flood the theaters. The serials were more expensive than any TV action shows, but cheaper than movies. TV killed the movie serial, but Star Wars used all the tricks (the humor, the cliff hangers and thrill a minute scripts) of the serials in a movie, and it worked.

Note that Star Wars cost $33 million in todays dollars to make, and Fox deliberately kept the budget low because they believed they were taking a big risk (all Lucas had going for him was a previous unexpected hit, American Graffitti). When Star Wars opened wide (on its second weekend, in about 1700 theaters, the equivalent to about 3,000 today), it did about $20 million in todays dollars. But the previous weekend, when it opened in only 43 theaters, it got great word of mouth.) If Star Wars had opened wide the first weekend, it probably would only have done about $12 million (in 2005 dollars.) Maybe Serenity should have used the "platform" approach (opening small.)

Fox (20th Century Fox) didn't really know how to market Star Wars at first, but caught on real quick when the flick broke out big time. It was so big, that Time Magazine, which had initally panned the movie, reviewed it again, much more favorably. Note that Lucas first offered Star Wars to Universal, which turned him down because they didn't understand it.

Speaking of Fox (the current version), they killed Firefly for good business reasons. A big reason for the success of Fox TV is their "run and gun" tactic with shows. They not only take more chances with new ideas, but treat programming (when the shows will appear) as a well thought out (from a business point of view) as a game. They play to win, not find the next big TV show. "Run and Gun" was not about "building" a show, but using them as playing pieces in a programming battle. If a show had legs early on, Fox would try to exploit that. Otherwise, they would drop shows that were at the bottom of the ratings list and bring in new stuff. They always had lots of new stuff. The Fox execs who screwed around with the sequencing of the episodes, and demanded a new pilot, could be faulted, but not blamed. They knew what they were doing and were not about to mess with a formula that was working big time for them.

Firefly was one of the casualties in that ongoing war, and Fox has no regrets. So it could happen again, as long as the Fox technique continues to work. Firefly would probably still be around if it had gone to cable. But Firefly was an expensive show, and the cable networks have to be careful. Even the current Battlestar Galactica started out as a miniseries, to test the market, and had partners.

When Joss got involved with Fox, it was thought that his ability, to take a niche subject and make it big, would work on a regular network. Dunno if Joss was fully aware of the "run and gun" technique Fox was using. Maybe not, or maybe he understood it, and believed he could work around it.

Serenity has a good shot at being one of those slow-build blockbusters. It's got great word of mouth, and an older demographic (under 25 year old guys are going to the movies 25 percent less than they did two years ago, so more adult scripts are getting the green light these days.)

EARLY

Saturday, October 8, 2005 3:59 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Groosalugg:
Quote:
Originally posted by GreggAllinson:
Quote:
Originally posted by Groosalugg:
The original Terminator (1984) opened at $4 mil.

Yeah, but that was over 20 years ago. Apples and oranges, unless that's adjusted for inflation.

No, it's not, but it's just another of those movies that became very successful based largely on word of mouth. It didn't get ANY television advertising before it opened, and was pegged by the studio as a quick-to-video-and-then-forgotten 'B' movie, but people went to see it, and told their friends about it, and eventually, voila: you have Arnold saying "She'll be back" in T3 and thus almost singlehandedly ruining the entire franchise...

Adjusted for inflation, based on boxofficemojo.com figures Terminator opened at roughly $7.6 million.

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