USA's AI effort, versus China. Who is winning?
POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Wednesday, January 29, 2025 14:34
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January 24, 2025
How The Chinese Beat Trump And OpenAI
The hype around Artificial Intelligence, the now failed U.S. attempt to monopolize it, and the recent counter from China are a lesson in how to innovate. They also show that the U.S. is losing the capability to do so.
In mid 2023, when the Artificial Intelligence hype gained headlines, I wrote:
'Artificial Intelligence' Is (Mostly) Glorified Pattern Recognition
Currently there is some hype about a family of large language models like ChatGPT. The program reads natural language input and processes it into some related natural language content output. That is not new. The first Artificial Linguistic Internet Computer Entity (Alice) was developed by Joseph Weizenbaum at MIT in the early 1960s. I had funny chats with ELIZA in the 1980s on a mainframe terminal. ChatGPT is a bit niftier and its iterative results, i.e. the 'conversations' it creates, may well astonish some people. But the hype around it is unwarranted.
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Currently the factual correctness of the output of the best large language models is an estimated 80%. They process symbols and pattern but have no understanding of what those symbols or pattern represent. They can not solve mathematical and logical problems, not even very basic ones.
There are niche applications, like translating written languages, where AI or pattern recognition has amazing results. But one still can not trust them to get every word right. The models can be assistants but one will always have to double check their results.
Overall the correctness of current AI models is still way too low to allow them to decide any real world situation. More data or more computing power will not change that. If one wants to overcome their limitations one will need to find some fundamentally new ideas.
But the hype continued. One big AI model, ChatGPT, was provided by a non-profit organization, OpenAI. But its CEO, Sam Altman, soon smelled the big amount of dollars he potentially could make. A year after defending the the non-profit structure of OpenAI Altman effectively raided the board and took the organization private:
ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is working on a plan to restructure its core business into a for-profit benefit corporation that will no longer be controlled by its non-profit board, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, in a move that will make the company more attractive to investors.
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Chief executive Sam Altman will also receive equity for the first time in the for-profit company, which could be worth $150 billion after the restructuring as it also tries to remove the cap on returns for investors, sources added.
The ChatGTP large language model OpenAI provided was closed source. A black-box, running in the cloud, that one could pay to chat with or use for translating, content generation or analyzing certain problems.
The training and maintaining of ChatGTP took large amounts of computing power and money. It was somewhat expensive but there was no new technology in it. The algorithms it used were well known and the training data needed to 'program' it were freely available internet content.
For all the hype about AI is is not a secret or even new technology. The barriers to entry for any competition is low.
That is the reason why Yves at Naked Capitalism, pointing to Edward Zitron, asked: “How Does OpenAI Survive?”
It doesn't. Or has little chance to do so. Discussions in the U.S. never acknowledged those facts.
Politicians thought of AI as the next big thing that would further U.S. control of the world. They attempted to prevent any potential competition to the lead the U.S. thought it had in that field. Nvidea, the last leading U.S. chip maker, lost billion when it was prohibited from selling in latest AI-specialized models to China.
Two days ago Trump announced Stargate, a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in the US:
Three top tech firms on Tuesday announced that thNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The problem is that now we're getting to the point with technology where 90% or more of the people just gotta nod along and believe some "expert" when they say something is or isn't true, because who the hell among the normal folk could read all of that and confirm or deny any of it?
The only way you could do that is with sources from other experts that may or may not align with the original experts for one reason or another.
That's fine if you're living in a utopia where people are genuinely good and the governments aren't all run by the sociopaths.
At this point it's kind of like... "yeah, sure, whatever... Do what you're going to do. You weren't going to ask my opinion anyhow, and there's nothing I can do about it if I didn't like it anyway. I just hope you don't get all of us killed while you're making all your money."
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Comrade signym. Did you post how it looks like China cheated and used some of the highest performing NVADIA chips, maybe as many as 50,000 to design this AI platform? Chips they were not supposed to have. And does it occur to you America can replicate what China did?
And fair or not. The stock market is not looking good for Trump.
The Nasdaq tanked on Monday as a Chinese startup rattled faith in US leadership and profitability in AI, taking a hammer to Nvidia (NVDA), wiping out a record $589 billion in market value.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sank more than 3%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped nearly 1.5%.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which is less dependent on tech stocks gained more than 0.6%, as investors flocked to more defensive sectors. Shares of Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and software giant Salesforce (CRM) also bucked the tech rout.
T 
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Comrade signym. Did you post how it looks like China cheated and used some of the highest performing NVADIA chips, maybe as many as 50,000 to design this AI platform? Chips they were not supposed to have. And does it occur to you America can replicate what China did?
"Cheated?"
What, is this the fucking Olympics?
"Chips they were not supposed to have."
According to whom?
How were they going to keep China from getting these chips?
You dumb motherfuckers can't even keep our borders secure.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:Similar to Covid.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
The problem is that now we're getting to the point with technology where 90% or more of the people just gotta nod along and believe some "expert" when they say something is or isn't true, because who the hell among the normal folk could read all of that and confirm or deny any of it?
The only way you could do that is with sources from other experts that may or may not align with the original experts for one reason or another.
That's fine if you're living in a utopia where people are genuinely good and the governments aren't all run by the sociopaths.
At this point it's kind of like... "yeah, sure, whatever... Do what you're going to do. You weren't going to ask my opinion anyhow, and there's nothing I can do about it if I didn't like it anyway. I just hope you don't get all of us killed while you're making all your money."
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
BUT.
The right source should be able to explain, in words that a reasonably intelligent person can understand, what they think and WHY they think it and what sort of evidence they have to back it up. And if they can't, they're either flim-flamming you or they don't understand it themselves. So you have to be prepared to go into weeds with some people and not just reject what someone is saying bc it doesn't fit into your ideology.
For example, I gave Peter Zeihan more than one listen. He does bring up good points, like the Chinese demographic collapse. OTOH he doesn't apply his observations equally to Japan, S Korea, and many EU nations, indicating a significant bias in his analysis.
I am ever so grateful to Chris Martensen, PhD clinical pathology, for explaining the Covid virus, the specific insert thay made it so deadly to many people, and how far away that insert was from anything in that entire family of viruses. Literally two months after the emergence of the virus in the USA, I had already pretty much decided it was a lab creation.
AFA Ukraine, well ... simple logistics should rule out any blazing American success there. (Example ... we would need to ship massive amounts of materiel and hundreds of thousands of troops. That would be by boat, and subject to submarine attack in an all-out war with Russia.) And while I listen to/ read various sources and its a little like seven blind men and the elephant, once a source has been proven to lie more than several times in a topic, I tend to shut them out and look for other sources.
Anyway AFA AI and China, the proof of the pudding.... If others can repeat their success, then it's not just a psyop.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA
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Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Comrade signym. Did you post how it looks like China cheated and used some of the highest performing NVADIA chips, maybe as many as 50,000 to design this AI platform? Chips they were not supposed to have. And does it occur to you America can replicate what China did?
THGR, do you wallow in ignorance on purpose?
The thing about this new AI is that it can be loaded on hardware that's extremely simple. It's a new approach to SOFTWARE, not hardware.
One person loaded the software onto a Raspberry Pi.
Do you know what a Raspberry Pi is?
This is a Raspberry Pi
Now, I doubt it would run very fast, but just the fact that it can be loaded at all! onto one of the world's smallest computers should tell you it doesn't need 50,000 chips of any sort.
Why don't you wait until it's been fully vetted... or not... before you start badmouthing. That's the intelligent thing to do.
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger
AMERICANS SUPPORT AMERICA
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