The Bad Boys: Ride or Die Success Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Monday, July 1, 2024 06:14
VIEWED: 1751
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SHOCK: ‘Bad Boys: Ride or Die' Might Open in the $30M Range
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/6/3/shock-bad-boys-ride-or-die-m
ight-open-in-the-30m-range
Quote:
Last week, inside tracking numbers had “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” potentially opening in the $60M range. Also, according to a survey, it was the movie for which general U.S. audiences were most aware of, besting any other summer movie, including “Deadpool 3.”
Deadline is now sounding the alarm that tickets are not selling as well as they thought for this latest ‘Bad Boys’ flick. One look at local AMC/Regal seating charts and you might notice that there aren’t a lot of tickets sold for the movie.
$30 Million in the US is fine if the international office ponies up at least $60 Million, but I don't think it has that sort of international appeal.
Even $60 Million opening in the US would not have been spectacular and the flick would have had trouble getting the international support to bring it at 100% of the production budget on opening weekend.
The question mark will be removed from this thread title after we know for sure the budget is $100 million and it's clear the reports of only seeing a $30 Million opening weekend potential aren't bunk. Which in that case, this film is finished before it started even with its comparatively low budget to most of the other flops so far this year.
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ETA: 06/09/2024 - Thread title changed from "Failure Thread (?)" to "Success Thread" without the "(?)" after opening weekend projections came out on Sunday at The-Numbers.
$56 Million domestic, $48.6 Million International, $104.6 Million Worldwide.
There is almost zero chance this one does not break even at over $250 Million with these opening weekend numbers. At least, in 2023 that would have been the case. It's been a strange year so far, and previous indicators haven't reliably meant what they once did.
So not only did I remove the "?", but I changed the title of the thread to "Success". Not only did Ride or Die make more money on opening weekend than anybody in the industry predicted that it would in the last few weeks leading to the opening, but it nearly doubled the lowest predictions out there. I think the industry has no idea what the hell is going on right now either, and after spending all year being wrong with high predictions that didn't pan out, they went really low with this one.
Even better for Ride or Die is that it will have zero new competition next weekend with Disney's first movie of 2024 releasing and geared toward an entirely different demographic. It probably won't see a release that would compete for eyeballs until June 28th when the prequel to A Quiet Place comes out.
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Some stuff to factor in here, the economy the US economy and World Economy is starting to feel more screwed up
Will Smith slap, he burnt a lot of bridges, Jada Pinkett Smith and her weird psycho humiliation rituals the son's friend? Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident a lot of studios hated that whole event. According to the Academy, Smith was asked to leave the ceremony but refused
https://web.archive.org/web/20220330005504/https://www.washingtonpost.
com/arts-entertainment/2022/03/28/oscars-slap-editing/
they are going to lose a lot of shipping and promotion, without the usual studios and teams that support you and then trying to get your product out there with less help I expect costs to be even higher than initially reported.
He has been burned or 'burnt' by other celebs, some supported him but most hated what he did, Would Wanda Sykes host the Oscars again? 'Oh hell no,' she says Jim Carrey Was SICKENED by Will Smith Oscar Moment
https://web.archive.org/web/20230307101928/https://ew.com/awards/oscar
s/wanda-sykes-wouldnt-host-oscars-again-hell-no/
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Some stuff to factor in here, the economy the US economy and World Economy is starting to feel more screwed up
Will Smith slap, he burnt a lot of bridges, Jada Pinkett Smith and her weird psycho humiliation rituals the son's friend? Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident a lot of studios hated that whole event. According to the Academy, Smith was asked to leave the ceremony but refused
https://web.archive.org/web/20220330005504/https://www.washingtonpost.
com/arts-entertainment/2022/03/28/oscars-slap-editing/
they are going to lose a lot of shipping and promotion, without the usual studios and teams that support you and then trying to get your product out there with less help I expect costs to be even higher than initially reported.
He has been burned or 'burnt' by other celebs, some supported him but most hated what he did, Would Wanda Sykes host the Oscars again? 'Oh hell no,' she says Jim Carrey Was SICKENED by Will Smith Oscar Moment
https://web.archive.org/web/20230307101928/https://ew.com/awards/oscar
s/wanda-sykes-wouldnt-host-oscars-again-hell-no/
Sure. Despite the delusions of some people who come in here to post pirated movie download links and pretend the economy is great, the state of the US and world economy are just kind of baked into anything I've been saying in here at this point.
Good point about the Will Smith slap though. Not that I'd forgotten about it, but I just kind of assumed that was baked into this one too. But yeah... it was long ago enough where a lot of people probably forgot that it was a thing that happened.
Martin's the real victim here. How they going to do my boy dirty like that?
Take that money and run, buddy.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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If this flops then just stick a fork in 2024
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Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
If this flops then just stick a fork in 2024
You're not wrong, but I think the 2024 goose has already been cooked.
My biggest question for the year is finding out of the US can even put out enough moneymaking movies to bump China out of the Top 10. Because right now their films occupy 4 of the Top 10 spaces, and I'm not sure if America is even capable of putting out another 7 films in 2024 that do half a billion to push them all off the Top 10 list.
And that's only figuring that China doesn't have another big hit or 3 coming out the rest of the year. YOLO and Pegasus 2 made $479 Million and $469 Million in the 1st quarter of 2024. There's a whole lot of year left for them to top that.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2024
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
The question mark will be removed from this thread title after we know for sure the budget is $100 million and it's clear the reports of only seeing a $30 Million opening weekend potential aren't bunk. Which in that case, this film is finished before it started even with its comparatively low budget to most of the other flops so far this year.
One half of this is already confirmed true. According to The Numbers, the budget for Ride or Die was $100 Million.
Sony is competing against itself this weekend with Bad Boys: Ride or Die and Garfield. Garfield remains the widest release with 74 more theaters than Bad Boys.
I'm seeing predictions between $30 and $50 Million right now.
Reddit is having fun with the fact that nobody is giving any solid predictions in 2024...
Quote:
Bad Boys: Ride or Die Expected to earn between 38 cents and $1 trillion in its opening weekend. We’ll be back Monday to claim victory on our prediction.
By default, I'm just going to believe this one will fail to reach $250 Million unless we see something in the box office that makes us believe otherwise here.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Some stuff to factor in here, the economy the US economy and World Economy is starting to feel more screwed up
Will Smith slap, he burnt a lot of bridges, Jada Pinkett Smith and her weird psycho humiliation rituals the son's friend? Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident a lot of studios hated that whole event. According to the Academy, Smith was asked to leave the ceremony but refused
https://web.archive.org/web/20220330005504/https://www.washingtonpost.
com/arts-entertainment/2022/03/28/oscars-slap-editing/
they are going to lose a lot of shipping and promotion, without the usual studios and teams that support you and then trying to get your product out there with less help I expect costs to be even higher than initially reported.
He has been burned or 'burnt' by other celebs, some supported him but most hated what he did, Would Wanda Sykes host the Oscars again? 'Oh hell no,' she says Jim Carrey Was SICKENED by Will Smith Oscar Moment
https://web.archive.org/web/20230307101928/https://ew.com/awards/oscar
s/wanda-sykes-wouldnt-host-oscars-again-hell-no/
I'm sure there were plenty of people in the audience who wanted to slap the shit out of those lame ass hosts.
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'Bad Boys' opened Thursday previews at 5.875 million, it's on it's way to do just OK.
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Quote:
Originally posted by whozit:
'Bad Boys' opened Thursday previews at 5.875 million, it's on it's way to do just OK.
It's probably going to open higher than $30 Million with a preview night around $6 Million. I'm surprised it was actually that high.
Here's a short list of other movies this year, what their preview numbers were and what their current worldwide 2024 rank is. They're listed in order of Preview Thursday money.
Title - Preview Thursday $ - 2024 Worldwide Rank
Dune: Part 2 - $12 Million - 1st Place
Godzilla x Kong - $10 Million - 2nd Place
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $6.6 Million - 6th Place
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $4.7 Million - 9th Place
Kung Fu Panda 4 - $3.8 Million - 3rd Place
Furiosa - $3.5 Million - 15th Place
The Fall Guy - $3.15 Million - 11th Place
Argylle: $1.7 Million - 20th Place
As far as I've looked into it, that puts Bad Boys in 4th place for preview night in the US in 2024.
Regarding Worldwide Numbers So Far...
1st/2nd Place: Dune: Part 2 & Godzilla X Kong (Box Office Successes)
Dune: Part 2 and Godzilla x Kong were 1st and 2nd place in previews and they're also 1st and 2nd place in the 2024 Worldwide Box Office.
3rd Place: Kung Fu Panda 4 (Box Office Success)
Kung Fu Panda 4 had a great run and is only $20 Million behind Godzilla X Kong for 2nd place even though it came in 6th place for previews on that list. Previews for kids movies don't really tell you anything though and this result is somewhat typical in that regard.
4th/5th Place: 2 Chinese Movies. YOLO & Pegasus 2.
6th Place: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Almost Certainly a Box Office Failure)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is in 6th place. It's not running on empty yet, but it would need another $123 Million to climb into 5th place and that ain't happening.
If you took the two Chinese Movies out of the picture, it's in 4th place. Ignoring the trend of family movies making less on previews than other types of movies, Apes is still following a trend of the higher the preview numbers, the higher on the 2024 list they end up. It just needs about $60 Million to break even still and isn't very likely to come close to that.
7th/8th Place: 2 more Chinese movies. Article 20 and Boonie Bears: Time Twist.
9th Place: Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. (Box Office Failure)
No longer in theaters and fell almost $50 Million short of breaking even.
But if you exclude all 4 Chinese movies above it and disregard Kung Fu Panda 4's jump, it is in 5th place, which is still keeping the Preview Number / Worldwide Top List Number.
10th Place: Bob Marley (I didn't track this one at all yet)
11th Place: The Fall Guy (Box Office Failure)
It only has made $160 Million on a $125 Million budget and it's not coming close to making $1 Million per day anymore.
If Furiosa doesn't totally fumble, it should rise above The Fall Guy. It did only make $700k on Thursday though, so Furiosa might be the movie that first breaks the rule.
15th Place: Furiosa (Box Office Failure)
$120 Million on a $168 Million budget in 14 days. This one has zero chance of coming close to breaking even. Only real question is whether or not it can make more than The Fall Guy did.
Extremely long story short, based off of Thursday Previews, if you predicted that Bad Boys would finish its run at 4th place in the 2024 Box Office (excluding Chinese movies and disregarding Kung Fu Panda 4's higher showing), it would make somewhere between what Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes made.
Or in other words, somewhere between $200 Million and $370 Million.
That could be good news for this movie. I don't think it would make anywhere close to what Apes ends up pulling in, but if it can split the above difference, it could walk away ma
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Bruce is predicting $44 Million opening weekend, with the possibility of $50 Million.
I think that's probably still too high, but after those preview numbers I knew it would do better than $30 Million.
Bad Boys For Life had a 48% Domestic / 52% International split of $424 Million in 2020.
If it does make at least $40 Million in the US and sees the same international split that BBFL had, we're up over $80 Million opening and we'll be somewhere between 80% and 100% of the production budget. Giving that it's 2024, that may not be enough to get it to break even territory, but being a Bad Boys movie it will probably be able to overcome that in the end.
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Trump will be fine.
He will also be your next President.
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