Real World Event Discussions

Thailand's poltical crisis, on one easy summary

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Sunday, October 26, 2025 15:00
VIEWED: 3880
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SIGNYM

Sunday, March 9, 2014 12:22 AM

I'm posting this as background on Thailand's political crisis. I've seen most of this elsewhere. Also, it pays to know people who know people: thru connections, I know a Thai resident who personally witnessed the killing of pro-democracy demonstrators in 2000, which had been ordered by the current head of "the opposition". According to him, many of those killed were sitting down to eat when they were taken out by sniper-fire headshots. (This theme plays out over and over, in Venezuela in 2002, andin the Ukraine.)

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The Yellow Shirts Versus The Red Shirts: The Inside Story

A classic struggle between social classes is being played out in the streets of Bangkok, Thailand, as hundreds of thousands of so-called 'yellow shirt' middle-class demonstrators seek to overthrow the current democratically-elected government.

Throughout the country Thais are glued to their TV sets, watching the unfolding Bangkok drama. But they watch on different channels. The social groups that support the government watch live coverage on their own national television channel, dubbed 'Red TV' after their 'red-shirt' identity; meanwhile, the opposition have their own channel and watch coverage on 'yellow shirt' TV .

The sharp class divisions in this country are frequently portrayed in western media as a struggle between 'the Bangkok middle class and the rural poor'. But in fact matters are not at all that simple; both rural and urban workers and farmers are also key actors in this drama, and this is a struggle taking place on two levels.

At the 'top level' there are two small, wealthy, and powerful groups contending with each other for power. One group we can loosely call ‘the King’s men’; the other we can call ‘the new money’.

The King’s men are, to a great extent, clustered around the King and his allies. Yes, Thailand has a king, and this king has tremendous social, political and economic power. Don't confuse him with royalty like Queen Elizabeth of England, whose power is largely ceremonial these days. The Thai king has real power – the kind possessed by kings in days of old, including power within the Thai military whose leaders’ first loyalty is arguably to him.

It is a criminal offense, punishable with a jail sentence of up to ten years to criticize the king in any way in Thailand. And this law is enforced. So Thai people seldom discuss the King’s real role, preferring to let pass in silence the public claim that the King is a 'politically neutral and beloved figure', as is also frequently repeated in western media.

Allied with the king and his circle is a network of traditionalist and neo-traditionalist elites, including most of the large land owners; parts of the top echelons of the military and government bureaucracy; and the owners of most of the industry, banks, and other large enterprises in Thailand.

This 'King’s group', though economically and politically powerful, is numerically quite small. It is therefore compelled to mobilize another more populated social class if it wants to enforce its interests and views on Thai society. Its instrument in this regard is the Thai upper-middle class, comprising of professionals, small and medium sized business owners and the like.

These are the people (the 'Yellow Shirts') who are currently demonstrating in large numbers in the streets of Bangkok for the overthrow of the present elected government. The principal strategist for their street actions is not, however, a middle-class person. It is Suthep Thaugsuban, whose cherubic face, and comments, now appear constantly in world media.

What is missing from the accounts of this 'middle-class’ hero is his truly horrifying - and corrupt - record as a member of the traditionalist elite. Thaugsuban has previously been accused of corrupt distribution of government land to wealthy families; forced to surrender his seat in parliament to avoid being disqualified for corruption involving his media holdings; and is curre

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SIGNYM

Sunday, March 9, 2014 2:56 AM

Here's a video on the same topic, with more detail

Keiser Report: Triangle Of Fraud (interview begins approx 13:00)

Sorry for the botched thread title, I had to to run off and do something, hit the "post" button before it was ready!

FREMDFIRMA

Sunday, March 9, 2014 6:52 AM

Well me, I've been pissed off at them since 1991, and so long as a significant portion of their GDP comes from pimping their kids to foreign perverts, that ain't gonna change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t!_Buy!_Thai!
(add last ! manually, or link will not work)

Others may have thrown in the towel, but I *never* did, ask WWASPS how long I can hold a grudge....

-F

GEEZER

Sunday, March 9, 2014 7:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
But Thaksin’s group holds one key trump card. Like the ‘king’s party’, Thaksin’s group is small and must mobilize another and more numerous social class to defend its interests and program. But the class on which it relies happens to be the vast majority of the 80 million Thai people, the workers and farmers of Thailand.

To win their support, Thaksin’s governments have brought in a series of powerful social reforms. These reforms are generally glossed-over in current media reports as 'handouts to farmers', 'populist policies', and the like, without any concrete description of what they are.

So you haven't been keeping up on the "Rice Mortgaging" scheme?

The Thai government's been buying (actually giving IOUs for) rice from farmers at 50% over market price for the past few years. Unfortunately they haven't been able to sell all that rice, and are now short of money to pay the farmers what they are owed.

Plenty of articles about it here. http://oryza.com/tags/thailand-rice-mortgage-scheme

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 9, 2014 9:12 PM

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The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) in Thailand has lowered the country's economic growth forecast for 2014 to 3-4% from its earlier forecast of 4-5% after GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 slowed down to 0.6%, according to local sources. The NESDB said in a statement on Monday that the economy grew by 2.9% in 2013, which was reportedly lower than the 3% predicted by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) in November 2013.

The NESDB also lowered its export and import growth projections for the country. While the Board revised the 2014 export growth down to 5-7% from its previous projection of 7%, it cut its projection for 2014 import growth to 5.7% from its previous forecast of 6.7%.

Although sources from the Finance Ministry expressed doubts whether the credit rating agencies would downgrade Thailand, both Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings assigned "Baa1" and "BBB" respectively for Thailand, with stable outlook. The rating agencies said they did not consider government's unpaid debts to the country's farmers as a technical default as the delayed payments were largely due to prolonged political conflict.

The Caretaker government is still struggling to garner funds to make payments to the farmers. The labor union of the state-run Government Savings Bank (GSB) are opposing the bank's decision to approve a 20 billion baht (around $618 million) loan to the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) saying lending to finance the troubled rice pledging scheme would undermine the confidence of depositors. While the GSB President maintained that the lending was not meant to support the rice pledging scheme, the government insisted on making the long-overdue payments to the farmers from Monday.

Meanwhile, the caretaker Prime Minister has assured that payments will be made to all farmers participating in the rice-pledging scheme. She blamed the political protestors for using the farmers' problems to bring down the caretaker government. The farmers are now in the middle of a political game being played by the protest leaders, who are refusing to follow the democratic and legal path, she adds. The PM said the BAAC would extend the period of debt repayments and increase credit line limits. The government needs about 130 billion baht (around $4 billion).

If I read the latest article correctly, the difficulty appears to be because of PROLONGED POLITICAL CONFLICT.

GEEZER

Sunday, March 9, 2014 11:31 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) in Thailand has lowered the country's economic growth forecast for 2014 to 3-4% from its earlier forecast of 4-5% after GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 slowed down to 0.6%, according to local sources. The NESDB said in a statement on Monday that the economy grew by 2.9% in 2013, which was reportedly lower than the 3% predicted by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) in November 2013.

The NESDB also lowered its export and import growth projections for the country. While the Board revised the 2014 export growth down to 5-7% from its previous projection of 7%, it cut its projection for 2014 import growth to 5.7% from its previous forecast of 6.7%.

Although sources from the Finance Ministry expressed doubts whether the credit rating agencies would downgrade Thailand, both Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings assigned "Baa1" and "BBB" respectively for Thailand, with stable outlook. The rating agencies said they did not consider government's unpaid debts to the country's farmers as a technical default as the delayed payments were largely due to prolonged political conflict.

The Caretaker government is still struggling to garner funds to make payments to the farmers. The labor union of the state-run Government Savings Bank (GSB) are opposing the bank's decision to approve a 20 billion baht (around $618 million) loan to the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) saying lending to finance the troubled rice pledging scheme would undermine the confidence of depositors. While the GSB President maintained that the lending was not meant to support the rice pledging scheme, the government insisted on making the long-overdue payments to the farmers from Monday.

Meanwhile, the caretaker Prime Minister has assured that payments will be made to all farmers participating in the rice-pledging scheme. She blamed the political protestors for using the farmers' problems to bring down the caretaker government. The farmers are now in the middle of a political game being played by the protest leaders, who are refusing to follow the democratic and legal path, she adds. The PM said the BAAC would extend the period of debt repayments and increase credit line limits. The government needs about 130 billion baht (around $4 billion).
If I read the latest article correctly, the difficulty appears to be because of PROLONGED POLITICAL CONFLICT.

Way to take out of context.

Their credit rating hasn't been dropped since the rating agencies note the political conflict, but they still are not able to borrow the money they need to pay the farmers. Even the union of the state-run Government Savings Bank is opposing a loan to the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. The government, as usual, blames the opposition.

Buying votes on credit usually come back to bite you in the ass eventually.

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

SIGNYM

Monday, March 10, 2014 12:00 AM

Payments were delayed due to a prolonged political conflict... not due to shortage of money, according to western ratings agencies. And those ratings agencies... they're in the business of detecting cash-flow and credit problems, so I'm not sure how else to read it.

GEEZER

Monday, March 10, 2014 12:08 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Payments were delayed due to a prolonged political conflict... not due to shortage of money, according to western ratings agencies. And those ratings agencies... they're in the business of detecting cash-flow and credit problems, so I'm not sure how else to read it.

Have the farmers been paid? Did the government promise payment? Has the government been unable to get loans to pay the farmers, despite their credit rating staying stable? Might buying rice at 50% over market price and having to dump it in a worldwide glut of rice have anything to do with it? Do command economies ever work? When did you start pimping for RT?

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

SIGNYM

Monday, March 10, 2014 12:17 AM

To answer your last question first: I save all of my pimping for zerohedge.com.

Based on what I read, the problem with getting the money is political, not economic. Is there a worldwide glut of rice? I don't know, I'll have to look that up. Also, I'll have to confirm that what the Thai farmers have been promised is 50% over the worldwide price, and to think about whether or not that makes any difference in the long run.

GEEZER

Monday, March 10, 2014 2:27 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Based on what I read, the problem with getting the money is political, not economic. Is there a worldwide glut of rice? I don't know, I'll have to look that up.

http://www.agprofessional.com/news/World-faces-rice-glut-Philippines-p
ressured-over-high-rice-price-248426341.html

Quote:
Also, I'll have to confirm that what the Thai farmers have been promised is 50% over the worldwide price, and to think about whether or not that makes any difference in the long run.

Quote:
controversial rice subsidy scheme, which paid farmers up to 50 percent above market rates, helped her sweep to power in 2011 but now appears to be unravelling.

http://www.rappler.com/business/industries/247-agriculture/50330-thai-
rice-woes-government-crisis

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."