January Hasn’t Been As Cold As You Think

POSTED BY: Niki2
UPDATED: Sunday, January 12, 2025 19:41
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NIKI2

Thursday, January 23, 2014 11:13 PM

Quote:
Many Americans may be freezing now, but the data shows January hasn't been that frigid

January 2014 will go down as the month we all learned about the polar vortex (even if meteorologists have known about it for decades). It’s the month when it got so cold that Minnesota closed all schools for the first time since 1997, when much of the Midwest was more frigid than the North Pole, when even Tampa experienced temperatures below freezing. As I write, much of the eastern half of the country is suffering through another bitter cold snap—not caused by the vortex, FYI—one that has blanked the East Coast in heavy snow. Winter, in short, has felt miserable.

But here’s the surprise: on a historical and national level, it hasn’t actually been all that cold.

Jan. 2014: Average High; Historical Average High
New York: 38 F (3.3 C; 36 F (2.2 C)
Los Angeles: 76 F (24.4 C); 68 F (20 C)
Chicago: 27 F (-2.7 C); 32 F (0 C)
Houston: 64 F (17.8 C); 63 F (17.2 C)
Philadelphia: 40 F (4.4 C); 41 F (5 C)
Phoenix: 73 F (22. 8 C); 67 F (19.4 C)
San Antonio: 66 F (18.9 C); 63 F (17.2 C)
San Diego: 72 F (22.2 C); 65 F (18.3 C)
Dallas: 58 F (14.4 C); 57 F (13.9 C)
San Jose: 66 F (18.9 C); 58 F (14.4 C)

What do we learn from this? Well for one thing, there’s an East Coast bias in news coverage, at least of the weather. But while it truly has been historically cold on average for much of the Midwest, for most of the rest of the country the average temperatures have been around normal, or even a little above. And the West Coast is experiencing an unusually hot winter (one that has compounded the record drought in California). Average high temperatures have been further above normal in Los Angeles and San Jose than they’ve been below average in Chicago. Anchorage has been positively balmy—by Alaskan standards—with average daily highs that are 11 F (6.1 C) greater than the historical average for January.

So why has this month felt so unusually cold for so many Americans? Probably because it has been — at least compared to recent history. An Associated Press analysis found that from 1900 on, cold extremes happened about once every four years. But when the average temperature in the U.S. dropped below 18 F on Jan. 6, it was the first time the country had been that cold on average in 17 years. And that day was only the 55th coldest day in recorded U.S. history, much warmer than the 12 F average recorded on Christmas Eve 1983.

The climate has been changing, but so have we, adjusting to what you might call a new normal. It’s an example of “shifting baselines,” a term first coined by the fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly ( http://science.time.com/2013/08/01/shifting-baselines-why-the-environm
ent-is-even-worse-off-than-you-think/). Once a New York City January when high temperatures were 38 F on average would have seemed on the warmish side. But as the climate has changed—and it has, with winters in New York State more than 1 F warmer on average now than in 1970 ( http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-
us-15590) — so have our perceptions of what’s normal. So when we get a winter that would have been pretty average four decades ago, it feels like a deep freeze.

And who knows, by 2100—when average temperatures in the U.S. might be as much as 11 F higher if nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions—our descendants might even get a freak January in New York when average temperatures actually fall below 40 F. And they’ll call it a cold snap. http://science.time.com/2014/01/22/average-temperatures-in-january-war
m-despite-cold/#ixzz2rFL9ejNK

GEEZER

Thursday, January 23, 2014 11:19 PM

Interesting how you can have a January 2014 average high, when there's still a week left in January 2014.

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

NIKI2

Thursday, January 23, 2014 11:23 PM

STORYMARK

Thursday, January 23, 2014 11:31 PM

Its been so warm here in NM, we are very worried about how bad our ongoing drought is going to become. January/February are typically our coldest months by a wide margin - and they actually turned the AC units on at my school last week, because it was so warm.

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

AURAPTOR

Friday, January 24, 2014 1:41 AM

It's been colder , actually.

Quote:
“Bottom line,” says WSB meteorologist Kirk Mellish. “This isn’t quite as cold as the first visit from the polar vortex, but it’s lasting much longer.”

Mellish says this is the longest stretch of bitter cold weather that we’ve seen in about three years. And it’s only going to get colder before it gets better .

http://www.wsbradio.com/news/news/coldest-weather-still-come-arctic-bl
ast/ncyc8/

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

GEEZER

Friday, January 24, 2014 7:10 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:

So where's the data for January 2014?

If you post an article about January 2014 average temps, you'd think you could at least wait until January 2014 was over.

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

AURAPTOR

Friday, January 24, 2014 7:22 AM

So what if there's still 8 days left in the month as this story was written...
THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED, remember ?

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

AURAPTOR

Friday, January 24, 2014 5:05 PM

Friday Jan. 24

Current temperature

9 degrees.

( So, even if the wind chill makes it FEEL like it's below zero, it's not as cold as you think, right ? )

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

GEEZER

Friday, January 24, 2014 7:21 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
Friday Jan. 24

Current temperature

9 degrees.

( So, even if the wind chill makes it FEEL like it's below zero, it's not as cold as you think, right ? )

Yeah.

My home weather station showed 8 degrees Wednesday morning, 4.8 degrees yesterday, and 7 this morning. Forecast is for one day (Saturday) with temps above freezing for the rest of the month.

Using actual figures for January 2014 to date, plus forecast figures for the rest of the month, I find the average high will be 39.6 and the average low 23.7. The overall average January high is 43, and the low 29.

So I'd have to say, yes, it has been as cold as I think.

"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

AURAPTOR

Friday, January 24, 2014 8:35 PM

@ 10:30ish, the temp has soared to 12 degrees.

There are reports of snow falling in Mobile, AL.

Still, not a very cold January.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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