How many years before China is No. 1?
POSTED BY: TraineeAlternate
UPDATED: Saturday, September 5, 2026 17:48
VIEWED: 15091
PAGE 4 of 15
You are correct. No one comes close to us in total dollars, but issue is how strong is number one when a country like china can put us in a depression overnight.
In 1982 the Japanese made it clear to the US that they were done being told what to do and they were going to tell us how it going to be.
We slapped a tarriff and on them for not letting the US sell rice in Japan. They held the debt out and in a matter of days the tariff was repealed and we still couldn't sell rice on the Japanese open market.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Unregistered Companion: was that 8 hour a week, shit pay job better than no job and no prospects of a job? because that is what we are talking about here. My family were coal miners for generations. That truely is a NASTY job, nobody would want their kids to have to do that for a living. Well the mine closed and those people became unemployed and you know what? They discovered that there was worse things than being a miner, being unemployed being one of them.
The people that want you to believe this is ok don't say "well you'll loose that manufacturing job and be unemployed for the foreseeable future" they say "well you didn't really want *that* job not when there are all these marvellous theoretical high tech jobs we will replace it with."
If there is a job for those people to move into then dandy, I don't want anybody doing drudge work if there is an alternative, but this is not going to be a choice between drudge work or a better job, this is a choice between a job and no job.
Manufacturing, like farming, mining and some knowledge based professions are important because they are a primary source of wealth. The service industries that replace them only add value. If you are in a steel town and the mills close, who has money to spend at the shops and restaurants that support those service jobs.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Haywood, you are absolutely correct. Free trade grows markets and thus makes a bigger pie. A smaller slice of a bigger pie might still be larger than the bigger slice of a smaller pie we're all used to. We get that, really.
The problem is that there isn't some nice mom out there cutting up this economic wealth and handing it out according to need or according to virtue. The US gets the slice it can grab and hold onto in the fight for a share. I don't see how that can be done if the economic "body" is weak.
I still say that all these theories are very nice but unproved. The fact that people say "well high tech is moving to India but that's ok because it leaves us free to exploit The Next Big Thing" without being able to say what the "Next Big Thing" is worries me.
Right now there are very few things the US is so good at that she has a sustainable comparative advantage. What pays the bills going forward?
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
The lack of understanding of basic economics and Finance in this discussion is amazing...
Positives of China buying US Debt...
1. Interest rates stay low.
a. Buying House Cheaper
b. Business' Cost of Capital Lower (=Economic Growth)
2. as mentioned before, they are buying US Debt at 50 year highs. (much the same as the Japanese did with real estate in the 80's)
China Own 2.5% of US debt. US treasuries are sold on an open Market, China can not "call" in the debt. They would have to sell it on the open market. This would cause rates to rise and would hurt our economy. At the same time China would hurt their own economy more as the value of the debt they are holding plummets in value as they are trying to sell it. Political Pressure that is already intense would exponentially grow to float the Yuan, in turn, leading to the collapse of Chinas cost advantages. Protectionism would raise its ugly head and Imports from china would Drop, thus Killing China's fledgling economy. Without a strong US economy, Chinas falls apart. They know this.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
China isn't going to dump US debt -- what advantage is there in that? However they are not just giving the US money and that's that, the US has to repay that debt at some time and it has to finance those repayments somehow.
This is just like a credit card, you run up a bill and in theory the loan company can sell on your debt, crap on your credit rating and make your life hell but where's the profit in that? No for them the best solution is that you keep making minimum payments all your life, which is what the US is doing with that debt at the moment.
The problem with China isn't that they will dump the bonds but that they will stop buying them because then interest rates will rise and the underlying weaknesses in the current economy will be revealed. A day will come when that happens, it won't be any time soon but when it does there will be problems.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Quote:Well you can take on 10,000 screaming Chinamen with your Kung-Fu, I'll keep my M-249 and stand behind you…
Originally posted by chrisisall:Quote:Who cares that the Chinese government doesn't like us? We know all their secret Kung-Fu moves now, and can turn this to our advantage!
Originally posted by RC71:
Japan and Russia at least say they are our friends, but China hasn't even pretended to, yet we ignore it.
Chrisisall Caine
EV Nova Firefly mod Message Board:
http://s4.invisionfree.com/GunRunner/index.php?act=idx
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Hayward,
Re: China statistics
I got mine off the CIA homepage, and while I respect the Economist I don't respect regurgitated analyses that might have added flaws. The analysis you quoted failed to take into account the inevitable parity of currencies that will come with having twice the United State's rate of growth. I said 11 years someone else said 10, I think this is pretty pretty solid stuff. It's somewhere on the order of a decade.
Can this change? Sure. But there are basically four things that can change it.
Two that would improve our situation vis a vis China:
1. An economic recovery in America. I think this is just about inconceivable, it would require a drastic overhaul of American fiscal policy, which I think would have to involve about 75% reduction in federal spending and an 80% reduction in taxation. I think it's possible, but quite frankly I think it's very unlikely.
2. A collapse of the Chinese economy. This is another I frankly don't see coming. A collapse of the Chinese govt. would accellerate economic growth, just about the only thing that would slow it is the Chinese govt. taking some totally lunatic economic stance. On second thought, I take it back, this one IS possible.
Two would make things worse and might hasten a Chinese take-over:
3. An accelleration of the Chinese economic growth. This is only going to happen if the communists lose power in a relatively peaceful manner. It's unlikely, but somewhat more possible than 1 and 2.
4. An economic collapse in the United States. This is a very real reality. I would place this as most likely of the 4 and perhaps more likely to happen then not happen.
Follow this scenario:
A. Bush's insane spending will force an increase in revenue by the next administration, assuming that admin is a democrat, which is probably a safe assumption, they will do it by raising taxes.
B. When The Benator/Hillary ticket wins in '08, they will inherit the enormous debt of Bush in the mega trillions.
C. Being democrats they raise taxes on businesses and working people making hiring Americans in white collar labor markets no longer feasible. (It's already not feasible to hire Americans in working class blue collar labor markets because of the incredibly unfavorable tax and regulatory structure in the US)
D. White collar employers will flee the US in favor of Japan, Korea and India, as well as Canada, Mexico and possibly Eastern Europe. Tax revenues will fall because the work force will be shrinking.
E. The Nelson administration will be tied to its overdrawn expenses because it will have inherited the bait-and-switch campaign supporters, such as the drug companies, and because it will have overgrown social experiments such as Hillary's health plan, and it will be bogged down in a war in Iran because it will have inherited the New World Order crowd.
F. At a completely loss to cover the expenses, and unwilling to reduce expenditures to their sweetheart deals with Halliburton, Pfiezer, et al. Ben Nelson and Hillary Clinton will launch a truly hairbrained economic revenue scheme. I have no idea what this will be, but I trust that they will think of something along the lines of Wilson's War Debt reparations.
G. The new economic madness paradign will rapidly precipitate a stock market crash. A great depression will follow.
This is just one possible Scenario. It's possible Bush himself will cause this kind of disaster through a similar sequence of events.
Anyway, should something like this transpire, China will leap rapidly into first place.
NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
"I got mine off the CIA homepage, and while I respect the Economist I don't respect regurgitated analyses that might have added flaws. The analysis you quoted failed to take into account the inevitable parity of currencies that will come with having twice the United State's rate of growth. I said 11 years someone else said 10, I think this is pretty pretty solid stuff. It's somewhere on the order of a decade."
I have yet to find ANY analysis that puts the Chinese economy anywhere near the US economy in size in the next 25 years, much less the next 10 or 11. I checked the CIA site and could not find this information anywhere. Also, for any economic information that the CIA does report, they don;t provide the method used for nay of their projections, while The Economist does. What was the CIA report that you found using as their basis for the comparison??? I'm sorry, but what you're saying just doesn't make any sense.
Also, what the in the 'verse do parity of currencies (which, just so you know, do not necessarily normalize due to grwoth rates, especially when when the exchange rate is artificially pegged by the Chinese government) rates ultimately have to do with total economic output?
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
"Follow this scenario:"
I tried, but it honestly defies logic, and is alarmist propaganda to boot.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
I don't know why everyone seems so terrified of China's becoming a superpower in a few years' time. Really, so what?
Britain, Spain and France were all once superpowers, with Britain & Spain claiming most of the globe between them. Did that destroy the economies of all other countries? No.
And when America's turn came to rise to power, did Europe and the rest of the world collapse into abject poverty? No.
Are Europe and Australia crawling along in the mud now, just because America is rich? Um, no.
Did America invade Canada, Mexico and the whole of South America, claiming it all as US territory, just because it was rich? No.
So what do you think will happen when China gets rich? Do you think America will suddenly collapse into miserable poverty? No.
Do you think China is just itching to send great armies into the rest of the world? Do you think China wants to invade America and seize whole continents as its own? Don't be daft!!! Why waste the money?
They only want the same thing as all other Third World countries want: to develop as quickly as possible and make as much money as they can, to give their people a better life.
You are wrong to say the Chinese don't like America---they deeply admire everything western, everything American, from fast food to the NBA---they even want to look like westerners, because they think westerners are more beautiful.
(By the way, that remark about them cheering over 9/11 must have been some of the ethnic minority Muslim groups in China, not the mainstream Chinese. Just like westerners, the mainstream worries about their own Muslim groups kicking up.)
It is not true that religion is not allowed---Buddhist and Taoist temples thrive in China now, while Muslim mosques and Christian churches are open for anyone to attend. It is missionaries of any kind that are frowned upon, as in other parts of the world, because they often mix religion and politics together.
The vast majority of Chinese are not remotely interested in politics at all---they just want to make money to send their kids to college and buy a car.
How is that so different from us westerners? Why is that so awful and scary?
So for all those American guys busy barricading themselves in their houses with machine guns ready for the big invasion, you really ought to relax and get out more. Come on over and do some country line-dancing with the Chinese---they love it, and you can show them some new steps!
And if you could make some Chinese friends and forget about racial prejudice, you would see what wonderful people they really are.
If western civilization collapses, it won't be because the Chinese got rich---it will be because of climate change. And who did that, I wonder?
Anyway, that's just my opinion.
NOTIFY: N | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME